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Systems Archive

 

Each system is trialled for a minimum of 50 bets in order to evaluate its performance and potential usefulness.

A wide variety of tactics are tested through the various systems, some of which you may wish to apply to your own personal betting strategy.

50 bets is obviously not a totally convincing sample but it enables me to trial more systems and methods during the year. On occasions, however, when a system is performing well after the standard 50 bets, the trial may be extended to 100 bets or more.

Please note that these systems are deliberately trialled using very few rules. The idea being that, should a method show promise in its basic form, then there is good potential for further improvement with the addition of carefully considered filters.

 

Topweights System

 

A profitable system which involves betting to win on topweights in all NH handicap races run over a trip of less than 3 miles on a tight track (for a list of tight tracks please refer to the NH Track Matrix)

 

Results to £100 win level stakes:

163 Bets

Profit £5,922

To 5 point win bets: Profit +296.10 pts

 

NB. By removing both Plumpton and Wetherby from the qualifying tracks, the profit was increased to £7,322 from a total of 145 bets - see Steve's Blog dated 8 April 2008.

 

System 1: Speed Horse

 

Rules:

Calculate the top speed horse of the day from Dave Edwards' Topspeed page on the Racing Post site (UK meetings only).

The top speed horse is selected by adding each horse's highest overall rating (last 12 months) to its most recent rating, then dividing by two.

In the event of a tie, the selection will have the best finishing position on its last run. If there is still a tie there is no bet.

 

Staking:

Stake 1pt for each full 10pts the selection achieves (e.g. a horse with a score of 65 will carry a stake of 6pts). Maximum stake is 10pts.

 

Logic:

These speed ratings are very good for those who haven't time to calculate their own, and the horse with the highest combined total of the day should be expected to go well, as we are considering its most recent run as well as its best in the last 12 months.

 

Results based on 50 bets:

Total stakes: 191 pts

Total returns: 222.32 pts

Profit +31.32 pts

 

System 2: Unnamed Favourites

 

Rules:

Find the race with the lowest prize money for the winner (UK meetings only).

Bet the favourite to win, but without naming it.

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each day's selected race.

In the unlikely event of there being more than one race carrying the lowest winning prize, stake 5 pts to win on each.

 

Logic:

Following the market can be misleading in high value and high profile races. The shrewd money is often masked by uneducated money.

That is not the case in low value races, which are mainly ignored by amateur punters. Following the market in these races tends to be more reliable.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (50 bets):

Total stakes: 250 pts

Total returns: 229.66 pts

Loss 20.34 pts

 

System 3: Recovery Mission

 

Rules:

Bet any horse to win that was a beaten favourite on its latest run (within the last 50 days), provided that it is being ridden by the top jockey at today's track.

The top jockey for this purpose is defined as the one (of those riding today) with the most course winners over the last 5 seasons (as given in the Racing Post) - should there be two jockeys with the same total, there is no bet for that meeting.

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

In the unlikely event of there being equal 'top jockeys' for a particular course, there will be no bets at that course for that day.

 

Logic:

Having been expected to win on its last outing but failing to do so, a horse is now being partnered by the leading jockey at today's track in an attempt to recover previous losses.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (50 bets):

Total stakes: 250 pts

Total returns: 231.57 pts

Loss 18.43 pts

 

System 4: Classy 3yo Handicappers

 

Rules:

In any 3yo handicap race, work down the racecard from the top, and bet the first horse you come to which was placed first, second or third on its last run.

In the event of there being no qualifier by the time you are halfway down the card there is no bet.

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

 

Logic:

3yos at the top of the handicap are improving horses (as opposed to older topweights who may be declining, but are still at the top based on what they did a long time ago). We have already shown that the effect of weight is grossly overstated in most cases, so the official handicapper has saved us a lot of form study by telling us the best horses. We then just need to look for confirmation of current form.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (50 bets):

Total stakes: 250 pts

Total returns: 308.13 pts

Profit +58.13 pts

 

System 5: Horses for Distances

 

Rules:

In any race, bet a horse if it is the only previous winner over today's distance, provided that it is also one of the first three named in the Racing Post betting forecast.

System applies to UK races only.

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

 

Logic:

Horses are very susceptible to changes in distance. They may not perform at their best with even a slight increase or decrease in the distance they have to run. If there is only one horse that has previously won over today's distance it may well hold a big advantage over the others.

More than half of all winners are in the first three named in the Racing Post betting forecast, so this qualifying factor eliminates no-hopers whose distance win may have been a long time ago, or in a very low grade.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (100 bets):

Total stakes: 500 pts

Total returns: 516.96 pts

Profit +16.96 pts

 

System 6: Recent Winners

 

Rules:

On any day, select the horse which has the least number of days since its last win.

If there is more than one qualifier in different races on the same day, they are all bet equally to win.

If there is more than one qualifier in the same race, the race will be ignored.

System applies to UK races only.

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

 

Logic:

Horses which are in top form are often likely to follow up a recent win. They are sometimes entered again quickly to avoid big penalties from the handicapper. They are often horses that thrive on quick reappearances, and once they hit form are difficult to stop whilst in the same mood.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (100 bets):

Total stakes: 500 pts

Total returns: 759.28 pts

Profit +259.28 pts

 

System 7: Against the Short Prices

 

Rules:

In any race where the Racing Post predict an odds-on favourite, bet the second-named horse in their betting forecast.

System applies to UK races only.

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

 

Logic:

Short-priced favourites win less often than they are given credit for, and as a betting medium they offer little value in general terms. The true value in the race often lies with the runner which appears to hold the highest realistic chance of the remainder.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (52 bets)

Total stakes: 260 pts

Total returns: 169.42 pts

Loss 90.58 pts

 

System 8: Big Concessions

 

Rules:

In handicap races only, select the horse that is giving the biggest weight concession of the day (the largest weight differential between a top and a second-top weight). Should there be joint qualifiers there will be a bet on each.

System applies to UK races only.

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

 

Logic:

The horse at the top of the handicap is officially rated as being the best horse in the race. Therefore, the horse giving the biggest weight concession is also the horse with the biggest class advantage.

Having already proved that the effect of weight is often overstated, the class advantage can often prove more effective than the penalty.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (50 bets):

Total stakes: 250 pts

Total returns: 108.42 pts

Loss 141.58 pts

 

System 9: Each-Way Value

 

Rules:

In any race with 5 declared runners, place an each-way bet on the second-named horse in the Racing Post betting forecast.

In cases where a subsequent non-runner is declared the bet stands as win-only for system purposes (this provision is made on the basis that bets are often placed early in the day).

System applies to UK races only.

 

Staking:

5pts each-way on each selection.

 

Logic:

As a general rule, I don't advocate each-way betting.

A carefully researched 20/1 shot is only equivalent to a 6/4 winner when placed second or third in an 8-runner race, giving very poor value (a 1pt e/w stake would return 5pts at a fifth odds, making it equal to a 6/4 win).

Contrary to popular belief, the best value for each-way backers is found in races of 5 runners, where the return for a place is a quarter odds. Importantly too, the two places in a 5-runner event account for 40% of the total (only 37.5% for the 1-2-3 in an 8-runner race and a poor 25% or less in races of 16+).

Not generally understood, also, is the fact that each-way betting is more effective at lower prices. The missed profit on winning long shots is never compensated by the poor place returns for those that are narrowly beaten - big prices are always better backed as win-only in the long term.

In races of 5 runners, the each-way value is often found with the second horse in the betting forecast. It holds a realistic chance of winning, whilst also being expected to beat the other three home, thus saving well over 50% of the total outlay when beaten into second place.

 

Results based on 5pt each-ways (54 bets):

Total stakes: 540 pts

Total returns: 586.98 pts

Profit +46.98 pts

 

System 10: Tactical Rides

 

Rules:

1. Find the race with the least number of runners of the day.

2. Bet the horse which is to be ridden by the jockey with the most winning rides at the track in the last 5 years (of those riding in the race).

3. In cases where two jockeys have ridden the same number of winners there is no bet.

4. On days where more than one race has the least runners there is a bet in each of those races.

5. System applies to all UK races.

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

 

Logic:

Jockeys who have proven knowledge and ability on a specific track tend to have an advantage over those who haven't. This is even more apparent in small fields, where races often turn out to be tactical affairs.

I opt for the number of winners a jockey has ridden on the track in preference to strike rate, which can often be misleading - especially when a low number of qualifying rides is evident.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (50 bets):

Total stakes: 250 pts

Total returns: 273.88 pts

Profit +23.88 pts

 

System 11: Long Travellers

 

Rules:

Bet the horse travelling the longest distance of the day, provided that there is only one qualifier. If the longest trip of the day is being made by more than one horse there is no bet.

System applies to UK races only.

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

 

Logic:

Horses don't normally travel alone for extreme distances unless they are thought to have a reasonable chance of success. Sometimes, when a stable or training centre already have a few representatives making the trip it isn't a hardship to include one or two more, but sole representatives on long journeys tend to be on a mission.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (50 bets):

Total stakes: 250 pts

Total returns: 303.36 pts

Profit +53.36 pts

 

System 12: Cheekpieces

 

Rules:

Bet the shortest-priced horse (Racing Post tissue prices) that is wearing cheekpieces for the first time. If there is more than one qualifier bet them equally, unless they are in the same race in which case there is no bet.

System applies to UK races only.

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

 

Logic:

As opposed to first-time blinkers and visors, which aren't as effective as they are on the second wearing due to many horses running too keenly on first application, cheekpieces, an increasingly popular form of headgear, tend to have a more positive effect the first time they are worn.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (50 bets):

Total stakes: 250 pts

Total returns: 118.75 pts

Loss 131.25 pts

 

System 13: Stamina Specialists

 

Rules:

Look for the race to be run over the longest distance of the day. If more than one are joint-longest, consider all qualifying races together.

Using Racing Post tissue prices, bet the shortest-priced horse that is a previous distance winner. If more than one qualifier there is no bet. If there are no previous distance winners in the longest or joint-longest races there is no bet.

System applies to UK races only.

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

 

Logic:

With extra emphasis on stamina, the ability of a horse to get the trip is more important than at shorter distances.

Previous distance scorers have already proved their stamina, and their advantage is magnified at longer trips. They are often able to outstay classier opponents who are being upped in distance.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (50 bets):

Total stakes: 250 pts

Total returns: 167.42 pts

Loss 82.58 pts

 

System 14: Hat Trick Attempts

 

Rules:

Bet any horse that has won its last two races, provided that it is not racing in a higher grade than for its last win. If there are any other runners in the same race that have won their last two or more races there is no bet.

System applies to UK races only.

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

 

Logic:

The vast majority of horses never win a race of any kind in their lives, so the completion of a hat trick of successes is seen as a fine achievement. That being the case, preparation for the hat trick bid is thorough, and the confidence that winning brings adds further to the chances of the horse, especially if there is no hike in class and there are no opponents in a similar run of form.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (53 bets):

Total stakes: 265 pts

Total returns: 118.16 pts

Loss 146.84 pts

 

System 15: Last Year's Winner

 

Rules:

Bet any horse (flat or NH) that won the corresponding race last year.

System applies to UK races only.

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

 

Logic:

The most conclusive proof that a horse is suited by the conditions of a race lies in the fact that it won the same event the previous year.

Granted that there may be certain variances the second time around, such as ground conditions, draw, jockey etc, but the horse has already shown a definite suitability to the three most important considerations: class, track, and distance.

Horses that won a race the previous year are often trained specifically with the same race in mind the following season.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (52 bets)

Total stakes: 260 pts

Total returns: 162.58 pts

Loss 97.42 pts

 

System 16: The CD System

 

Rules:

Bet any horse that is the sole previous course and distance (CD) winner in its race, provided there are no other previous course winners in the line-up.

Course winners over other trips do not qualify, even though they may also have won over today's trip on a different track.

System applies to both flat and NH racing.

System applies to UK races only.

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

 

Logic:

This was the original 'cdsystem' after which an early version of the present site was named and built in May 2000. The logic behind it is fairly obvious, in that many horses have their favourite tracks as well as having an optimum distance. If a horse is the only one in the race to have won over today's course and distance it basically has much less to prove than its rivals in that respect.

Obviously there are other important form criteria, such as the class of the race and ground conditions, but the essence of this series of systems is simplicity. It is often the fact that horses are unfancied due to other criteria, but are selected simply because they comply with a basic system, that leads to bigger-priced winners being thrown up when more scrupulous study would often dismiss them.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (100 bets)

Total stakes: 500 pts

Total returns: 540.47 pts

Profit +40.47 pts

 

System 17: In-form Distance Winners

 

Rules:

Bet any horse that won its last race, provided that the win came within the last ten days, and provided that it has also previously won over the distance of today's race.

Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.

System applies to both flat and NH racing.

System applies to UK races only.

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

 

Logic:

This system plays on the advantages of in-form horses which were very successfully highlighted in System 6 (Recent Winners), but with the additional option of being able to use more than one selection in any one racing day if appropriate.

The qualifying criteria of at least one previous distance win should restrict the number of bets to an acceptable level, whilst also ensuring that today's trip is suitable for the already in-form runners.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (100 bets)

Total stakes: 500 pts

Total returns: 596.14 pts

Profit +96.14 pts

 

System 18: Beaten Favourites After A Rest

 

Rules:

Bet any horse that was a beaten favourite in its last race, provided that it has a had a break of more than 30 days since then, and also provided that it has previously won over today's distance.

Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.

System applies to both flat and NH racing.

System applies to UK races only.

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

 

Logic:

Having been expected to win on its last outing, but failing to do so, a horse that may not have given its true running has now been rested with a view to gaining compensation in a carefully chosen and suitable event, and when fit and ready to do so.

This is often a more suitable strategy than rushing a horse into attempting to gain quick compensation when conditions may not be ideal.

The qualifying criteria of at least one previous distance win should restrict the number of bets to an acceptable level, whilst also ensuring that today's trip is suitable.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (51 bets)

Total stakes: 255 pts

Total returns: 255.25 pts

Profit +0.25 pts

 

System 19: First-time Blinkers on Handicap Debut

 

Rules:

Bet any horse that is wearing blinkers for the first time in its career when the race also happens to be its handicap debut.

For the purpose of this method, handicap debut is taken to mean the horse's first run in a handicap of the type in which it is entered today (either turf flat, a/w flat, chase or hurdles).

System doesn't apply to any other form of headgear.

Ignore races in which there is more than one qualifier.

System applies to both flat and NH racing.

System applies to UK races only.

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

 

Logic:

It is common practice for some trainers to run horses under less than optimum conditions in races which qualify them for a handicap mark. Having achieved a competitive rating for the horse the trainer is then faced with the task of taking advantage of it. He will attempt to do that by selecting the ideal conditions for his runner, in terms of track type, distance and ground.

It is a fact that blinkers, more often than not, work better on subsequent applications than they do the first time. However, on the occasions that they do enhance a performance on their first application the results can be spectacular. A generous rating for a handicap debut and an ideal set of conditions can further enhance the effect of first-time blinkers on the occasions that they do provide this spectacular improvement.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (50 bets)

Total stakes: 250 pts

Total returns: 0 pts

Loss 250 pts

Comment: the way the trialled horses ran under this set of conditions (only two were placed) makes this method ideal for laying purposes.

 

System 20: Tipster Trend Reversal

 

Rules:

In the Racing Post Naps Competition bet the nap provided by the tipster with the longest current losing sequence.

If there is more than one qualifier there is no bet.

As many press tipsters do not operate on Sundays the system will operate from Monday to Saturday inclusive.

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

 

Logic:

On the basis that the livelihood of these press correspondents is ultimately dependant on the results they produce, long losing sequences can hardly be beneficial to them or to their newspaper.

Tipsters on a current winning run can afford to take chances they may not otherwise contemplate, whilst the main objective of a tipster on a long losing sequence is primarily to end it.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (100 bets)

Total stakes: 500 pts

Total returns: 524.08 pts

Profit +24.08 pts

 

System 21: Favourites In Big Fields

 

Rules:

Each day select the non-handicap race with the most runners.

Bet the favourite to win, but without naming it.

If there are two or more qualifying races there is no bet.

System applies to UK races only.

System applies to both flat and NH races.

Once the qualifying bet is published it will stand regardless of any late non-runners, either in the same race or in any other.

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

 

Logic:

There is an old saying: 'the bigger the field the better the favourite' and, as in all old proverbs, there is an element of substance to it - this trial will hopefully prove just how much.

Races with more runners tend to be truly-run affairs, as opposed to those with small fields which often provide no early pace and no cover for the runners that need it.

Races with big fields are also much less competitive, on many occasions, than they first appear. They often contain many runners that have no realistic chance of winning. That applies much more so to non-handicap events, on which the system is based.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (100 bets)

Total stakes: 500 pts

Total returns: 482.29 pts

Loss 17.71 pts

 

System 22: The Benefit of Previous Experience

 

Rules:

In races where more than half the field is unraced, bet the shortest-priced runner with previous experience.

For price comparison use Racing Post tissues.

If there is more than on qualifier in a race there is no bet for that race.

System applies to UK flat races only (not NH flat).

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

 

Logic:

The benefit of previous experience is often understated in the betting market. A less talented runner with experience can often beat a more illustrious newcomer who is making its first visit to the racetrack, even though the more talented rival will eventually develop into a much better prospect.

No matter how well a newcomer has been performing at home, there is no guarantee that its promise will be fulfilled when it encounters the hustle and bustle of a race day for the first time.

A runner that has seen it all before is much more likely to show its true form or to improve on what it has already shown.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (101 bets)

Total stakes: 505 pts

Total returns: 642.03 pts

Profit +137.03 pts

 

System 23: Laying Older Handicappers

 

Rules:

In handicap races containing 4yos and above, lay the Racing Post forecast favourite unless it won its last race.

Where there are joint forecast favourites there is no bet regardless of whether any of them won last time out.

System applies to UK flat races only (not NH flat).

 

Staking:

Lay at the Racing Post forecast price to a liability of one point for every consecutive race the selection has lost.

Eg. If the forecast favourite is 5/2 and is on a losing run of 20 then the potential gain is 8 points (20 divided by 2.5) and the potential liability is 20 points.

 

Logic:

The most unreliable type of race for favourite backers is a handicap for older horses. These runners often struggle to maintain a consistent level of form and are unlikely to be on the upgrade. They are often struggling on handicap marks which, because of earlier career successes, are too high for them.

The longer the losing sequence a horse is on the more difficult it tends to be for its trainer to find a winning opportunity, especially if a string of placed efforts means that the handicapper hasn't relinquished his grip. Potential liabilities are therefore in line with the horse's current losing sequence.

 

Results based on 54 bets

Average potential liability (per bet): 5.31 points

Bets successfully losing: 48

Profit +30.51 pts

 

System 24: Forgiving A Poor Run

 

Rules:

Bet any horse that failed to finish on its last run, provided that it won the race before and is priced at less than 10/1 in the Racing Post betting forecast for today's race.

If there is more than one qualifier in a race there is no bet for that race.

System applies to UK National Hunt races only (not NH flat).

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

 

Logic:

Punters tend to place too much emphasis on a horse's most recent performance. As a result, a runner with a valid excuse for failing on its last run is often under-bet next time out, even though it may have been showing some decent form previously.

The price limit attempts to rule out horses that are outclassed in today's event.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (50 bets):

Total stakes: 250 pts

Total returns: 277.50 pts

Profit +27.50 pts

 

System 25: Older Two-Year-Olds

 

Rules:

In any race for 2yos where the number of runners with previous experience is less than the number of places available, bet the oldest unraced horse each-way.

Eg. A race with eight runners, of which only two have run before, would qualify, as would a six-runner affair where only one had previously run.

Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.

System applies to UK races only.

 

Staking:

5pts each-way on each selection.

 

Logic:

Unraced 2yos can be a bit of a mystery but the fact is that some are much more developed than others. Though they all share the same official birthday (1 January), some of them can actually be quite a bit older than others. This can prove a big advantage when unraced 2yos compete against each other.

The each-way element of the bet respects the fact that the runners to have seen a racecourse before, regardless of actual age, have a proven advantage in terms of experience (see System 22).

 

Results based on 5pt each-ways (27 bets):

Total stakes: 270 pts

Total returns: 333.64 pts

Profit +63.64 pts

(This trial ran for only 27 bets due to infrequent qualifiers)

 

System 26: Beaten Favourites With Sights Lowered

 

Rules:

Bet any horse that is competing for less prize money than on its previous run, provided that it was a favourite or joint-favourite on that previous outing.

Lower prize money takes into account prize money for the winner only.

Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.

System applies to both Flat and NH races.

System applies to UK races only.

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

 

Logic:

Lower prize money normally indicates a lower graded or lesser quality race. If a horse attracted enough support to warrant favouritism in a better event, then it should have strong claims against lesser opposition.

This set of circumstances often indicates a retrieval mission, with connections attempting to recoup previous losses. An easier task is often chosen for the horse when this is the case.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (203 bets):

Total stakes: 1015 pts

Total returns: 1009.11 pts

Loss 5.89 pts

 

System 27: Trainer/Jockey Combinations

 

Rules:

Bet any horse which meets these two conditions:

1) The trainer has had more than 100 runners on the track over the last five seasons, showing a level stakes profit.

and:

2) The jockey has had more than 100 rides on the track over the last five seasons, showing a level stakes profit.

 

Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.

System applies to both Flat and NH races.

System applies to UK races only.

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

 

Logic:

Contrary to popular belief, strike rates are fairly meaningless on their own. A trainer or jockey may have a high strike rate at a particular track, but if the runners were mainly short-priced favourites we could say that they were expected to win in any case.

Another trainer or jockey may have a low strike rate, but if those horses consisted largely of rank outsiders then we would not have expected them to win.

In other words, for strike rates to be meaningful they need to be linked to prior expectation, and that expectation is reflected in the prices of the horses.

Basically, if a trainer or jockey returns a level stakes profit at a particular track then their runners have been underestimated in the market, meaning that they have attracted a bigger price than their true chance demanded.

However, we must beware of small samples, which can distort the picture completely, hence the provision for more than 100 results for both trainer and jockey individually (not necessarily as a team), over the last five seasons.

If both have made level stakes profits at a certain venue with such large samples of runners, they must be of interest when they combine in the same race.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (150 bets):

Total stakes: 750 pts

Total returns: 758.25 pts

Profit +8.25 pts

 

System 28: Older Sprinters Hitting Form

 

Rules:

Bet any horse which meets these five conditions:

1) It is running over a trip of 6 furlongs or less.

2) It is aged four years old or more.

3) It finished in the first three last time out.

4) Its latest race took place within the last 30 days.

5) It finished out of the first three on at least three consecutive occasions immediately prior to its most recent run (e.g. form figures of 146892 would qualify).

 

Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.

System applies to UK races only.

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

 

Logic:

Of all the different types of racehorse, perhaps the most prone to alternating sequences of good and poor performance are older sprinters. They can be out of form for a considerable time before suddenly producing one run which sparks a resurgence. This improved level of performance may continue for a short while before the sprinter begins another decline. The secret is to catch these older sprinters just as they hit one of their purple patches.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (101 bets):

Total stakes: 505 pts

Total returns: 490.22 pts

Loss 14.78 pts

 

System 29: Jockey Upgrades

 

Rules:

Bet any horse which meets these four conditions:

1) It was a beaten favourite last time on a racecourse.

2) It was ridden last time out by a jockey who was claiming a weight allowance.

3) It is ridden today by a jockey who isn't claiming a weight allowance.

4) It isn't stepping up in grade today (by grade I refer to the class of the race: 1, 2, 3 etc).

 

If a horse's last run was in a race which didn't have a designated class (perhaps because it was run abroad), it will not qualify as a selection.

If a horse's last run was under a different code (chase/hurdles/flat) than today's contest, it will not qualify as a selection.

Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.

System applies to both Flat and NH races.

System applies to UK races only.

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

 

Logic:

The horse was expected to win last time out, when ridden by one of the lesser experienced or least successful riders in the race. That lack of experience and/or proficiency may well have contributed to its defeat. Today, in an event of equal or lesser grade, it is ridden by one of the top riders in the race, who doesn't need a weight allowance to compensate for any shortcomings in experience or ability.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (150 bets):

Total stakes: 750 pts

Total returns: 804.66 pts

Profit +54.66 pts

 

System 30: Sole Representatives

 

Rules:

1. Take each each race card in turn and check out the Top Trainers list, showing performance statistics at the track for the last five years (for trainers who have runners there today).

2. Of all the trainers to have shown a level stakes profit at the track over the last five seasons, identify the one with the most course winners during that time.

3. If that trainer has only one representative at the track today, bet the horse to win.

 

If there are two or more profitable trainers with the same number of course winners, there is no bet on that particular race card.

System applies to both Flat and NH races.

System applies to UK races only.

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

 

Logic:

For betting purposes, there are several ways of defining a successful trainer. A trainer who sends out plenty of winners but fails to return a level stakes profit isn't providing any value. A trainer who returns a level stakes profit from just one or two winners doesn't provide a convincing long-term record.

However, a trainer who provides a fair number of winners, together with a level stakes profit, has established a solid record in terms of both success and value. If he/she takes the trouble to send just one representative to the track in question on any given day, there are grounds for taking interest.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (50 bets):

Total stakes: 250 pts

Total returns: 141.03 pts

Loss 108.97 pts

 

System 31: Winning Flat Sires

 

Rules:

1. Identify the top three Flat sires, in terms of races won by their progeny during the previous calendar year. For example, if using the system in 2008, check the Flat Sire stats for races won during the whole of 2007.

2. Identify the progeny of those sires running today.

3. Bet them all to win, unless there is more than one in the same race, in which case there is no bet for that particular race.

 

System applies to UK Flat races only.

 

The top three sires, in terms of races won by their progeny in 2007 were: Danehill Dancer, Sadler's Wells and Pivotal. They therefore provided the qualifying bets for the system trial which commenced on 16 April 2008.

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

 

Logic:

Some sires are responsible for providing many winners whilst a large percentage produce very few or none. In 2007, a total of 911 sires had progeny running on the Flat in the UK.

During that year, 25.26% of all Flat race wins (1111 of 4398) were the responsibility of just 20 (2.2%) of those sires.

Meanwhile, 442 sires (48.52%) failed to provide a single Flat winner during the year, although it is true to say that many of them had very few runners.

Three sires were each responsible for 75 or more Flat race successes during 2007 (Danehill Dancer 95, Sadler's Wells 87 and Pivotal 75). They represented a mere 0.33% of sires with Flat runners that year, but they were collectively responsible for 5.84% of all Flat race wins (257 from 4398). It is worth noting that individual strike rates for sires are misleading because two or more progeny often compete against each other in the same race.

When a horse/rider partnership is familiar with a particular track, they already know what is required and how it should be achieved. This applies even more so when the partnership have already scored over today's course and distance.

These potent combinations are often underestimated in the betting markets, going off at bigger prices than they should on many occasions.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (151 bets):

Total stakes: 755 pts

Total returns: 835.36 pts

Profit +80.36 pts

 

System 32: Course/Distance/Jockey Combinations

 

Rules:

1. Identify all previous course/distance winners running today (denoted 'CD' on the Racing Post race cards).

2. Select only those CD winners that have been partnered to at least one previous CD success by today's rider.

3. Bet them all to win, unless there is more than one in the same race, in which case there is no bet for that particular race.

 

System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

 

Logic:

When a horse/rider partnership is familiar with a particular track, they already know what is required and how it should be achieved. This applies even more so when the partnership have already scored over today's course and distance.

These potent combinations are often underestimated in the betting markets, going off at bigger prices than they should on many occasions.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (103 bets):

Total stakes: 515 pts

Total returns: 451.25 pts

Loss 63.75 pts

 

System 33: Fully Focused Rides

 

Rules:

1. Taking each of the day’s meetings in turn, consult the ‘Top Jockeys’ list on the Racing Post website (under ‘Racing/Cards’).

2. Check each of the top five jockeys on the list, to see whether any of them are visiting the track for just one ride that day. If so, make a note of the horse.

3. Repeat the process for each of the day’s meetings.

4. Bet each qualifier to win, provided it isn’t opposed by another qualifier, in which case there is no bet for that particular race.

 

System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each qualifier.

 

Logic:

Top jockeys usually have multiple engagements on a card, which means they have to make tactical preparations for each in a fairly short time. When a top jockey has just one engagement at a particular venue, he/she can concentrate solely on the tactics for that one ride. They are therefore fully focused on a particular race and their visit to the track has just one specific purpose. By using the ‘Top Jockeys’ listing for each individual track, rather than an overall ‘Top Jockeys’ list, we are ensuring that each bet will be ridden by a jockey who is proven at that particular venue.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (50 bets):

Total stakes: 250 pts

Total returns: 154.96 pts

Loss 95.04 pts

 

System 34: Value Favourites

 

Rules:

1. Using the newspaper selections provided at the side of each racecard on the Racing Post website, note those runners to have attracted more selections than all the other runners in their race put together.

2. Bet to win on those that are priced at evens or above in the Racing Post betting forecast.

 

System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each qualifier.

 

Logic:

Well-touted favourites generally offer little in the way of value, but this method attempts to uncover some of those that might.

Even money represents a 50% chance of success. A horse that attracts more than 50% of the total selections, yet is forecast to return at evens or better has the potential to provide some value.

 

Further comment: Under live conditions it would obviously be advisable to use actual market prices rather than the forecast prices used for this trial.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (57 bets):

Total stakes: 285 pts

Total returns: 203.44 pts

Loss 81.56 pts

 

System 35: Stables Hitting Form

 

Rules:

1. Using the Postdata section to be found underneath each race on the Racing Post website, note those runners with more than one tick in the Trainer Form column, indicating that the yard has hit top form.

2. If more than one horse in a race satisfies the above condition, there is no bet for that race.

 

System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each qualifier.

 

Logic:

Stables hitting top form can often be the source of spectacular profits within a short period of time. The fact that a stable’s horses are running so well means they can sometimes land races they might not otherwise be expected to win. When that happens, the rewards, in terms of price, can be quite lucrative.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (105 bets):

Total stakes: 525 pts

Total returns: 419.86 pts

Loss 105.14 pts

 

Comment: The final result of the trial understates the potential of this method because, during the trail, there were placed horses at 50/1, 33/1, 25/1, 16/1, 14/1, 12/1. and 10/1 (twice), as well as many others at single-figure prices. Using 5 point win stakes, had just a couple of the bigger prices won instead of running close seconds or thirds, the final table would have been transformed (eg the 50/1 bet, which finished second after being hampered, would alone have added an extra 255 points to the returns, ensuring a significant overall profit.

 

System 36: Weight Reductions On Uphill Tracks

 

Rules:

1. Concentrate on races with the words ‘handicap’ or 'nursery' in the title, which are taking place on tracks with a significant uphill section (see ‘Tracks - Flat’ and ‘Tracks - NH’ in the left-hand menu, using those tracks with an indicator in the ‘Uphill’ columns).

2. Bet any horse partnered by a claiming rider provided it has at least one vote in the ‘Tips’ column of the Racing Post racecard.

3. If there is more than one qualifier in any race there will be no bet for that race.

 

System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each qualifier.

 

Logic:

The effect of weight is grossly overstated on tight and downhill tracks, but it does have a more significant effect when a horse has to run up a hill. A claiming rider effectively lowers his/her mount's handicap mark, and the fact that the horse has also attracted support based on its form criteria makes it a potentially attractive proposition.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (52 bets):

Total stakes: 260 pts

Total returns: 136.25 pts

Loss 123.75 pts

 

Comment: In a similar way to System 35, the final result of the trial possibly understates the potential of the method, which looks to have the potential of being useful as a place-only system. Over 40% of the qualifiers won or placed, with the placed horses outnumbering the winners by 16 to 5. There were quite a few decent-priced placed horses including 18/1, 16/1, 14/1, 14/1, 11/1, 10/1 and 9/1 whilst the winners were all shorter than that. It is logical to assume that the claiming riders, despite their mounts enjoying a weight advantage, are weaker in a finish and the results of this trial certainly seem to bear that out.

 

System 37: Targeted Races

 

Rules:

1. Bet any horse whose trainer has won the corresponding race two or more times in the last ten renewals (going back a maximum of ten years), provided he/she has just the one runner in today's race.

2. If more than one trainer has won a race two or more times in the last ten renewals, and is represented today, there is no bet for that race.

 

System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each qualifier.

 

Logic:

Trainers often target specific races for some of their horses. The fact that a race has been specifically targeted, rather than a trainer merely finding a potential opening for a horse that is ready to run, signifies a greater level of intent.

In addition, a trainer who has successfully lifted a particular prize on two or more occasions is more likely to know what will be required to do so again.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (54 bets):

Total stakes: 270 pts

Total returns: 186.86 pts

Loss 83.14 pts

 

Comment: There were 12 winners at a strike rate of 22.22% but five of them were odds-on, with the top winning price being 6/1. It is apparent that this method produces qualifiers that generally go off at too short a price, probably because trainers who have winning records in certain races are very often highlighted in the media.

 

System 38: Front Runners in Small Fields

 

Rules:

1. Concentrate only on races containing seven runners or less.

2. In such events, check for horses to have previously made all the running to win a race in the same code as today's (Flat or NH). To avoid confusion, the term 'made all' (or 'made virtually all') in the Racing Post comments-in-running is the key factor, unless it is otherwise obvious from their commentary that the horse led from start to finish.

3. Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.

 

System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

 

Staking:

5pts to win on each qualifier.

 

Logic:

Races with only a handful of runners often develop into tactical affairs with a slow to moderate early pace. In such cases, the place to be is up at the front and many of these races are stolen by prominently ridden horses who get first run on their rivals. When only one of the field has ever made all before, there is a fair chance of that runner enjoying the advantage of an uncontested lead.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (100 bets):

Total stakes: 500 pts

Total returns: 681.74 pts

Profit +181.74 pts

 

Comment: A very satisfactory trial. The strike rate was 27% and, in addition to the 27 winners, there were 27 runners-up which meant that 54% of the qualifiers finished in the first two home. The runners-up included a couple of 16/1 shots and a 20/1, so the overall profit could easily have been much higher.

 

System 39: Laying All-Weather Handicap Favourites

 

Rules:

1. Concentrate only on handicap races to be run at either: Great Leighs, Lingfield, Kempton, Southwell or Wolverhampton.

2. In such events, check for horses which are clear favourite in the Racing Post betting forecast.

3. Then, check each of these in turn to see whether it has ever run on the track before.

4. If not, lay the horse as per the staking instructions below.

 

Staking:

Lay at the shortest price that can be matched, to a liability of 5pts for each qualifier (for the purpose of the trial results, the Racing Post betting forecast price is used).

 

Eg 1: If the target lay price is 7/4, lay a bet of 2.86 pts at 2.75.

Calculation: 5/(7/4) = 2.86 pts at: (7/4) + 1 = 2.75

 

Eg 2: If the target lay price is 4/7, lay a bet of 8.77 pts at 1.57.

Calculation: 5/(4/7) = 8.77 pts at: (4/7) + 1 = 1.57.

 

Both above examples give a potential liability of 5 points.

 

Logic:

If a horse has never run on the all-weather before, there are obvious concerns regarding its suitability to the surface. Even if it has previous all-weather experience, but on a different track to today's, there are still concerns as explained below. In some instances these concerns can be outweighed by the price but, in the case of handicap favourites, that is less likely.

 

Most backers, although they are aware that Southwell has a Fibresand surface whilst the others have Polytrack, aren't fully aware of the big time differences that exist between these tracks.

If five horses of identical ability set off to run 6f (one at each of the all-weather venues) at exactly the same time, this is what would happen:

 

The Lingfield horse would beat both the Kempton and Great Leighs horses by 6 lengths (those two would finish in a dead heat). The Wolverhampton horse would finish a further 7.5 lengths behind (that's 13.5 lengths in total behind the Lingfield horse).

The Southwell horse would finish last, 4 lengths behind the Wolverhampton horse, 12 lengths behind GL/K and fully 17.5 lengths behind the Lingfield runner.

 

Those very significant differences apply to the straightforward sprint distance of 6f, at which almost all races are run at a true pace. It is easy, therefore, to see that much bigger differences can apply at longer trips, especially with many of those races being run tactically.

To give a simple example of the effect that a change in tracks can have, a horse that runs an end-to-end gallop at Lingfield, and just about gets the trip, would have no chance of winning a similarly run contest over the same trip at Wolverhampton because it simply wouldn't stay.

 

Further notes:

1. Even though Kempton and Great Leighs have the same stamina requirements, they are left in the trial because the former is right-handed and the latter left-handed and there can often be a preference in that regard.

2. Favourites in all-weather handicaps are more likely to be opposed by runners already proven on the track than is the case in non-handicaps, hence the use of handicaps for the trial.

 

Results based on 50 bets:

Average potential liability (per bet): 4.69 pts

Bets successfully losing: 34

Profit +5.55 pts

 

Comment: The system held its own without producing spectacular overall results. However, 13 of the last 15 lays were successful, producing a profit of 25.42 pts during that latter sequence and suggesting that perseverance could well pay dividends in the longer term.

Perhaps the most significant trend involved the odds-on favourites. There were 11 odds-on favourites during the trial and only 4 of them managed to win, which is well below the expected win rate for those prices, although that sample is too small to be defining in any way.

 

System 40: Powerful Connections

 

Rules:

1. Obtain the necessary data: The Racing Post site provides a 'statistics' link for each meeting of the day. These 'statistics' links provide performance figures for trainers, jockeys and owners, in terms of winners over the last five seasons, at a particular track (where applicable, ensure the appropriate filter for either Flat or Jumps is selected).

2. Use each of these 'statistics' links in turn to identify horses whose connections (trainer, jockey and owner) are all listed within the first five in their respective categories.

3. Repeat the procedure for each meeting of the day (UK meetings only).

4. Bet to win on each qualifier, provided there is not more than one in a race, in which case there is no bet for that particular race.

5. Should a trainer, jockey or owner appear in the first five listed, despite recording no track wins, any horse representing them will not be a qualifier, nor will its presence prevent any other horse being a qualifier in the same race.

 

System applies to all Flat and NH meetings held in the UK.

 

Staking:

5 pts to win on each qualifier.

 

Logic:

Trainers, jockeys and owners who have proven records of success at a particular track are of obvious interest on an individual basis, but when the three combine at the venue they represent a particularly potent force.

 

Results based on 5pt wins (101 bets):

Total stakes: 505 pts

Total returns: 590.64 pts

Profit +85.64 pts

(please see comment below)

 

Comment: During the course of this trial, the data provided on the Racing Post 'statistics' links was changed. For the first 66 bets of the trial, the data was restricted to the top five per category, based on winners over the last five years, whether or not they were involved today. From bet 67 onwards, the 'statistics' links were amended to show five-year figures for all trainers, jockeys and owners involved today. The trial continued using this new data.

In retrospect, and having discovered that the original data is still available, I am of the opinion that anyone playing this system should use the original data, rather than that now provided on the 'statistics' links. The data which was used for the first 66 bets can now be found by clicking on the individual meeting names (on the page which summarises today's racing) rather than on the 'statistics' links.

The profit after 66 bets was 160.86 points.

Using the original data, this system looks to have strong potential.

 

© 2000 - 2009 Professional Betting Advice and Strategy from cdsystems

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Saturday 4 July

Daily Bargain

(Haydock 3.30)

available now

from 10.15 BST Fri


Thursday 2 July

Victoria Sponge (nb)

Won 5/2


Wednesday 1 July

Emirates Sports (nb)

Won 5/2


Tuesday 30 June

Stateside (nb)

Won 3/1


Monday 22 June

Peak District (nb)

Won 9/4


Tuesday 16 June

Judgethemoment (nb)

Won 13/2


Monday 15 June

Hansomis

Won 11/2 to 9/2


Saturday 13 June

Kavachi (nb)

Won 11/2


Wednesday 3 June

Sweet Gale (nb)

Won 14/1


Saturday 30 May

Signor Peltro (nb)

Won 9/2


Tuesday 26 May

Total Impact

Won 9/1 to 11/2


Monday 25 May

Kingdom Of Fife (nb)

Won 9/4


Friday 22 May

Thunder Gorge

Won 9/1(r4) to 7/1


Thursday 21 May

Woodcote Place (nb)

Won 8/1


Monday 18 May

Affluent (nb)

Won 2/1


Saturday 16 May

Virtual

Won 8/1 to 6/1


Monday 11 May

Non Dom

Won 7/2 to 3/1


Tuesday 5 May

Persian Peril (nb)

Won 6/1


Saturday 2 May

Sea The Stars (nb)

Won 8/1


Friday 1 May

Lady Jane Digby

Won 8/1 to 6/1


Friday 24 April

Almaty Express (nb)

Won 11/4


Tuesday 21 April

Judgethemoment

Won 11/1 to 13/2


Friday 17 April

Haarth Sovereign

Won 7/1 to 4/1


Thursday 9 April

Markila

Won 10/1 to 5/1


Tuesday 7 April

Select (nb)

Won 13/8


Monday 6 April

Perfect Honour (nb)

Won 7/2


Tuesday 31 March

Handsinthemist

Won 9/2 to 4/1

+ Sherjawy (nb)

2nd 8/1 Exacta: £32.00


Wednesday 25 March

Shaded Edge (nb)

Won 3/1


Saturday 21 March

Scintillo

Won 11/1 to 8/1


Wednesday 18 March

Mafaaz

Won 11/2


Other recent winners:


Al Muheer

Won 15/2 to 5/1


Simply Blue (nb)

Won 4/1


Supsonic

Won 4/1 to 3/1

+ Zaffeu (nb) 2nd 8/1

Exacta: £22.00


Ravi River

Won 7/2 to 9/4


Cape Of Storms

Won 7/1 to 9/2


Spinning (nb)

Won Evs


Tous Les Deux (nb)

Won 9/2


Ingleby Arch (nb)

Won 9/4


Divertimenti

Won 4/1


Silver Mist (nb)

Won 9/4

+ Third Set

2nd 7/1 to 11/2

F/c: £14.81


Punching

Won 3/1


Bluebell Ridge

Won 9/2


General Feeling

Won 9/2 to 11/4

+ Nikki Bea (nb)

2nd 7/1

Exacta: £13.10


Marmooq (nb)

Won 4/1


Nightjar

Won 11/4 to 2/1


Notre Pere

Won 16/1


Duff

Won 4/1 to 13/8


Garde Champetre

Won 7/2 to 7/4


Kilbeggan Blade (nb)

Won 6/1


L'Homme De Nuit

Won 6/1 to 4/1


Malko De B'mont (nb)

Won 7/2

+ Akilak

2nd 4/1 to 10/3

Exacta £11.90


Shotley Mac

Won 9/2 to 7/2

+ Bold Marc (nb)

2nd 15/8

Exacta £10.70


Lucky Dance (nb)

Won 33/1


Other Daily Bargain

winners include:

Advanced

Won 25/1 to 20/1

Dabbers Ridge

Won 25/1 to 12/1

Flipando

Won 20/1 to 14/1

Wise Dennis

Won 20/1 to 14/1

Symbol Of Peace

Won 16/1

Rustic Gold

Won 14/1 to 8/1

Staying On

Won 14/1 to 6/1

Ivory Lace

Won 12/1

Just Bond

Won 12/1

Nice Tune

Won 12/1 to 10/1

Tajneed

Won 12/1 to 17/2

Blythe Knight

Won 11/1 to 9/1

Inside Story

Won 10/1 to 8/1

Golden Oak

Won 10/1 to 7/1

Lucarno

Won 9/1 to 6/1

Dium Mac

Won 8/1

Plum Pudding

Won 8/1

Ingleby Princess

Won 8/1 to 13/2

Heathyards Pride

Won 8/1 to 13/2

Hypnosis

Won 8/1 to 6/1

Collateral Damage

Won 8/1 to 9/2

Galactic Star

Won 15/2 to 6/1

Juniper Girl

Won 15/2 to 5/1

The Very Man

Won 7/1

Shela House

Won 7/1

Pennyspider

Won 13/2 to 6/1

Texas Gold

Won 13/2 to 5/1

Snow's Ride

Won 6/1

Reeling N' Rocking

Won 6/1 to 5/1

Eva Soneva So Fast

Won 6/1 to 9/2

Swift Princess

Won 6/1 to 3/1

Alessano

Won 11/2

Hula Ballew

Won 11/2

Tcherina

Won 11/2

Press The Button

Won 11/2 to 9/2

Ofarel D'Airy

Won 11/2 to 7/2

Cool Ebony

Won 11/2 to 3/1

Toy Top

Won 5/1

Parish Oak

Won 5/1

Turner's Touch

Won 5/1

Smart Enough

Won 5/1 to 9/2

Wind Flow

Won 5/1 to 4/1

Rabbit Fighter

Won 9/2

Beaver Patrol

Won 9/2

Spanish Hidalgo

Won 9/2

The Fisio

Won 9/2

Bomber Command

Won 9/2

High Treason

Won 9/2

One Way Ticket

Won 9/2

Pegasus Dancer

Won 9/2

Halsion Chancer

Won 9/2 to 7/2

Reeling n' Rocking

Won 9/2 to 7/2

St Savarin

Won 9/2 to 7/2

My Friend Fritz

Won 9/2 to 3/1

Killena Boy

Won 9/2 to 5/2

Evens And Odds

Won 4/1

Atlantic Gamble

Won 4/1

Magical Music

Won 4/1

Pop Music

Won 4/1 to 7/2

Sweet Indulgence

Won 4/1 to 3/1

Suzi Spends

Won 4/1 to 11/4

Sadler's Kingdom

Won 4/1 to 11/4

Raffish

Won 4/1 to 11/4

Goodbye Mr Bond

Won 4/1 to 11/4

Luckylover

Won 4/1 to 11/4

King Of Dixie

Won 4/1 to 9/4

Players Please

Won 7/2

The Bandit

Won 7/2

Moorhouse Lad

Won 7/2

Smart Ass

Won 7/2

Royal Dignitary

Won 7/2

Macorville

Won 7/2

South O'the Border

Won 7/2

Valley Of The Moon

Won 7/2 to 3/1

Eradicate

Won 7/2 to 5/2

King Harald

Won 7/2 to 5/2

Bubble Boy

Won 10/3 to 11/4

King's Ransom

Won 10/3 to 2/1

Al Gillani

Won 10/3 to 15/8

Hoh Wotanite

Won 3/1

Maltese Falcon

Won 3/1


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