Rules:

Bet any horse that is wearing blinkers for the first time in its career when the race also happens to be its handicap debut.

For the purpose of this method, handicap debut is taken to mean the horse's first run in a handicap of the type in which it is entered today (either turf flat, a/w flat, chase or hurdles).

System doesn't apply to any other form of headgear.

Ignore races in which there is more than one qualifier.

System applies to both flat and NH racing.

System applies to UK races only.

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

Logic:

It is common practice for some trainers to run horses under less than optimum conditions in races which qualify them for a handicap mark. Having achieved a competitive rating for the horse the trainer is then faced with the task of taking advantage of it. He will attempt to do that by selecting the ideal conditions for his runner, in terms of track type, distance and ground.

It is a fact that blinkers, more often than not, work better on subsequent applications than they do the first time. However, on the occasions that they do enhance a performance on their first application the results can be spectacular. A generous rating for a handicap debut and an ideal set of conditions can further enhance the effect of first-time blinkers on the occasions that they do provide this spectacular improvement.

Results based on 5pt wins (50 bets)

Total stakes: 250 pts

Total returns: 0 pts

Loss 250 pts

Comment: the way the trialled horses ran under this set of conditions (only two were placed) makes this method ideal for laying purposes.

Rules:

In the Racing Post Naps Competition bet the nap provided by the tipster with the longest current losing sequence.

If there is more than one qualifier there is no bet.

As many press tipsters do not operate on Sundays the system will operate from Monday to Saturday inclusive.

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

Logic:

On the basis that the livelihood of these press correspondents is ultimately dependant on the results they produce, long losing sequences can hardly be beneficial to them or to their newspaper.

Tipsters on a current winning run can afford to take chances they may not otherwise contemplate, whilst the main objective of a tipster on a long losing sequence is primarily to end it.

Results based on 5pt wins (100 bets)

Total stakes: 500 pts

Total returns: 524.08 pts

Profit +24.08 pts

Rules:

Each day select the non-handicap race with the most runners.

Bet the favourite to win, but without naming it.

If there are two or more qualifying races there is no bet.

System applies to UK races only.

System applies to both flat and NH races.

Once the qualifying bet is published it will stand regardless of any late non-runners, either in the same race or in any other.

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

Logic:

There is an old saying: 'the bigger the field the better the favourite' and, as in all old proverbs, there is an element of substance to it - this trial will hopefully prove just how much.

Races with more runners tend to be truly-run affairs, as opposed to those with small fields which often provide no early pace and no cover for the runners that need it.

Races with big fields are also much less competitive, on many occasions, than they first appear. They often contain many runners that have no realistic chance of winning. That applies much more so to non-handicap events, on which the system is based.

Results based on 5pt wins (100 bets)

Total stakes: 500 pts

Total returns: 482.29 pts

Loss 17.71 pts

Rules:

In races where more than half the field is unraced, bet the shortest-priced runner with previous experience.

For price comparison use Racing Post tissues.

If there is more than on qualifier in a race there is no bet for that race.

System applies to UK flat races only (not NH flat).

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

Logic:

The benefit of previous experience is often understated in the betting market. A less talented runner with experience can often beat a more illustrious newcomer who is making its first visit to the racetrack, even though the more talented rival will eventually develop into a much better prospect.

No matter how well a newcomer has been performing at home, there is no guarantee that its promise will be fulfilled when it encounters the hustle and bustle of a race day for the first time.

A runner that has seen it all before is much more likely to show its true form or to improve on what it has already shown.

Results based on 5pt wins (101 bets)

Total stakes: 505 pts

Total returns: 642.03 pts

Profit +137.03 pts

Rules:

In handicap races containing 4yos and above, lay the Racing Post forecast favourite unless it won its last race.

Where there are joint forecast favourites there is no bet regardless of whether any of them won last time out.

System applies to UK flat races only (not NH flat).

Staking:

Lay at the Racing Post forecast price to a liability of one point for every consecutive race the selection has lost.

Eg. If the forecast favourite is 5/2 and is on a losing run of 20 then the potential gain is 8 points (20 divided by 2.5) and the potential liability is 20 points.

Logic:

The most unreliable type of race for favourite backers is a handicap for older horses. These runners often struggle to maintain a consistent level of form and are unlikely to be on the upgrade. They are often struggling on handicap marks which, because of earlier career successes, are too high for them.

The longer the losing sequence a horse is on the more difficult it tends to be for its trainer to find a winning opportunity, especially if a string of placed efforts means that the handicapper hasn't relinquished his grip. Potential liabilities are therefore in line with the horse's current losing sequence.

Results based on 54 bets

Average potential liability (per bet): 5.31 points

Bets successfully losing: 48

Profit +30.51 pts

Rules:

Bet any horse that failed to finish on its last run, provided that it won the race before and is priced at less than 10/1 in the Racing Post betting forecast for today's race.

If there is more than one qualifier in a race there is no bet for that race.

System applies to UK National Hunt races only (not NH flat).

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

Logic:

Punters tend to place too much emphasis on a horse's most recent performance. As a result, a runner with a valid excuse for failing on its last run is often under-bet next time out, even though it may have been showing some decent form previously.

The price limit attempts to rule out horses that are outclassed in today's event.

Results based on 5pt wins (50 bets):

Total stakes: 250 pts

Total returns: 277.50 pts

Profit +27.50 pts

Rules:

In any race for 2yos where the number of runners with previous experience is less than the number of places available, bet the oldest unraced horse each-way.

Eg. A race with eight runners, of which only two have run before, would qualify, as would a six-runner affair where only one had previously run.

Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.

System applies to UK races only.

Staking:

5pts each-way on each selection.

Logic:

Unraced 2yos can be a bit of a mystery but the fact is that some are much more developed than others. Though they all share the same official birthday (1 January), some of them can actually be quite a bit older than others. This can prove a big advantage when unraced 2yos compete against each other.

The each-way element of the bet respects the fact that the runners to have seen a racecourse before, regardless of actual age, have a proven advantage in terms of experience (see System 22).

Results based on 5pt each-ways (27 bets):

Total stakes: 270 pts

Total returns: 333.64 pts

Profit +63.64 pts

(This trial ran for only 27 bets due to infrequent qualifiers)

Rules:

Bet any horse that is competing for less prize money than on its previous run, provided that it was a favourite or joint-favourite on that previous outing.

Lower prize money takes into account prize money for the winner only.

Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.

System applies to both Flat and NH races.

System applies to UK races only.

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

Logic:

Lower prize money normally indicates a lower graded or lesser quality race. If a horse attracted enough support to warrant favouritism in a better event, then it should have strong claims against lesser opposition.

This set of circumstances often indicates a retrieval mission, with connections attempting to recoup previous losses. An easier task is often chosen for the horse when this is the case.

Results based on 5pt wins (203 bets):

Total stakes: 1015 pts

Total returns: 1009.11 pts

Loss 5.89 pts

Rules:

Bet any horse which meets these two conditions:

1) The trainer has had more than 100 runners on the track over the last five seasons, showing a level stakes profit.

and:

2) The jockey has had more than 100 rides on the track over the last five seasons, showing a level stakes profit.

Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.

System applies to both Flat and NH races.

System applies to UK races only.

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

Logic:

Contrary to popular belief, strike rates are fairly meaningless on their own. A trainer or jockey may have a high strike rate at a particular track, but if the runners were mainly short-priced favourites we could say that they were expected to win in any case.

Another trainer or jockey may have a low strike rate, but if those horses consisted largely of rank outsiders then we would not have expected them to win.

In other words, for strike rates to be meaningful they need to be linked to prior expectation, and that expectation is reflected in the prices of the horses.

Basically, if a trainer or jockey returns a level stakes profit at a particular track then their runners have been underestimated in the market, meaning that they have attracted a bigger price than their true chance demanded.

However, we must beware of small samples, which can distort the picture completely, hence the provision for more than 100 results for both trainer and jockey individually (not necessarily as a team), over the last five seasons.

If both have made level stakes profits at a certain venue with such large samples of runners, they must be of interest when they combine in the same race.

Results based on 5pt wins (150 bets):

Total stakes: 750 pts

Total returns: 758.25 pts

Profit +8.25 pts

Rules:

Bet any horse which meets these five conditions:

1) It is running over a trip of 6 furlongs or less.

2) It is aged four years old or more.

3) It finished in the first three last time out.

4) Its latest race took place within the last 30 days.

5) It finished out of the first three on at least three consecutive occasions immediately prior to its most recent run (e.g. form figures of 146892 would qualify).

Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.

System applies to UK races only.

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

Logic:

Of all the different types of racehorse, perhaps the most prone to alternating sequences of good and poor performance are older sprinters. They can be out of form for a considerable time before suddenly producing one run which sparks a resurgence. This improved level of performance may continue for a short while before the sprinter begins another decline. The secret is to catch these older sprinters just as they hit one of their purple patches.

Results based on 5pt wins (101 bets):

Total stakes: 505 pts

Total returns: 490.22 pts

Loss 14.78 pts

Rules:

Bet any horse which meets these four conditions:

1) It was a beaten favourite last time on a racecourse.

2) It was ridden last time out by a jockey who was claiming a weight allowance.

3) It is ridden today by a jockey who isn't claiming a weight allowance.

4) It isn't stepping up in grade today (by grade I refer to the class of the race: 1, 2, 3 etc).

If a horse's last run was in a race which didn't have a designated class (perhaps because it was run abroad), it will not qualify as a selection.

If a horse's last run was under a different code (chase/hurdles/flat) than today's contest, it will not qualify as a selection.

Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.

System applies to both Flat and NH races.

System applies to UK races only.

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

Logic:

The horse was expected to win last time out, when ridden by one of the lesser experienced or least successful riders in the race. That lack of experience and/or proficiency may well have contributed to its defeat. Today, in an event of equal or lesser grade, it is ridden by one of the top riders in the race, who doesn't need a weight allowance to compensate for any shortcomings in experience or ability.

Results based on 5pt wins (150 bets):

Total stakes: 750 pts

Total returns: 804.66 pts

Profit +54.66 pts

Rules:

1. Take each each race card in turn and check out the Top Trainers list, showing performance statistics at the track for the last five years (for trainers who have runners there today).

2. Of all the trainers to have shown a level stakes profit at the track over the last five seasons, identify the one with the most course winners during that time.

3. If that trainer has only one representative at the track today, bet the horse to win.

If there are two or more profitable trainers with the same number of course winners, there is no bet on that particular race card.

System applies to both Flat and NH races.

System applies to UK races only.

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

Logic:

For betting purposes, there are several ways of defining a successful trainer. A trainer who sends out plenty of winners but fails to return a level stakes profit isn't providing any value. A trainer who returns a level stakes profit from just one or two winners doesn't provide a convincing long-term record.

However, a trainer who provides a fair number of winners, together with a level stakes profit, has established a solid record in terms of both success and value. If he/she takes the trouble to send just one representative to the track in question on any given day, there are grounds for taking interest.

Results based on 5pt wins (50 bets):

Total stakes: 250 pts

Total returns: 141.03 pts

Loss 108.97 pts

Rules:

1. Identify the top three Flat sires, in terms of races won by their progeny during the previous calendar year. For example, if using the system in 2008, check the Flat Sire stats for races won during the whole of 2007.

2. Identify the progeny of those sires running today.

3. Bet them all to win, unless there is more than one in the same race, in which case there is no bet for that particular race.

System applies to UK Flat races only.

The top three sires, in terms of races won by their progeny in 2007 were: Danehill Dancer, Sadler's Wells and Pivotal. They therefore provided the qualifying bets for the system trial which commenced on 16 April 2008.

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

Logic:

Some sires are responsible for providing many winners whilst a large percentage produce very few or none. In 2007, a total of 911 sires had progeny running on the Flat in the UK.

During that year, 25.26% of all Flat race wins (1111 of 4398) were the responsibility of just 20 (2.2%) of those sires.

Meanwhile, 442 sires (48.52%) failed to provide a single Flat winner during the year, although it is true to say that many of them had very few runners.

Three sires were each responsible for 75 or more Flat race successes during 2007 (Danehill Dancer 95, Sadler's Wells 87 and Pivotal 75). They represented a mere 0.33% of sires with Flat runners that year, but they were collectively responsible for 5.84% of all Flat race wins (257 from 4398). It is worth noting that individual strike rates for sires are misleading because two or more progeny often compete against each other in the same race.

When a horse/rider partnership is familiar with a particular track, they already know what is required and how it should be achieved. This applies even more so when the partnership have already scored over today's course and distance.

These potent combinations are often underestimated in the betting markets, going off at bigger prices than they should on many occasions.

Results based on 5pt wins (151 bets):

Total stakes: 755 pts

Total returns: 835.36 pts

Profit +80.36 pts

Rules:

1. Identify all previous course/distance winners running today (denoted 'CD' on the Racing Post race cards).

2. Select only those CD winners that have been partnered to at least one previous CD success by today's rider.

3. Bet them all to win, unless there is more than one in the same race, in which case there is no bet for that particular race.

System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

Logic:

When a horse/rider partnership is familiar with a particular track, they already know what is required and how it should be achieved. This applies even more so when the partnership have already scored over today's course and distance.

These potent combinations are often underestimated in the betting markets, going off at bigger prices than they should on many occasions.

Results based on 5pt wins (103 bets):

Total stakes: 515 pts

Total returns: 451.25 pts

Loss 63.75 pts

Rules:

1. Taking each of the day’s meetings in turn, consult the ‘Top Jockeys’ list on the Racing Post website (under ‘Racing/Cards’).

2. Check each of the top five jockeys on the list, to see whether any of them are visiting the track for just one ride that day. If so, make a note of the horse.

3. Repeat the process for each of the day’s meetings.

4. Bet each qualifier to win, provided it isn’t opposed by another qualifier, in which case there is no bet for that particular race.

System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

Staking:

5pts to win on each qualifier.

Logic:

Top jockeys usually have multiple engagements on a card, which means they have to make tactical preparations for each in a fairly short time. When a top jockey has just one engagement at a particular venue, he/she can concentrate solely on the tactics for that one ride. They are therefore fully focused on a particular race and their visit to the track has just one specific purpose. By using the ‘Top Jockeys’ listing for each individual track, rather than an overall ‘Top Jockeys’ list, we are ensuring that each bet will be ridden by a jockey who is proven at that particular venue.

Results based on 5pt wins (50 bets):

Total stakes: 250 pts

Total returns: 154.96 pts

Loss 95.04 pts

Rules:

1. Using the newspaper selections provided at the side of each racecard on the Racing Post website, note those runners to have attracted more selections than all the other runners in their race put together.

2. Bet to win on those that are priced at evens or above in the Racing Post betting forecast.

System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

Staking:

5pts to win on each qualifier.

Logic:

Well-touted favourites generally offer little in the way of value, but this method attempts to uncover some of those that might.

Even money represents a 50% chance of success. A horse that attracts more than 50% of the total selections, yet is forecast to return at evens or better has the potential to provide some value.

Further comment: Under live conditions it would obviously be advisable to use actual market prices rather than the forecast prices used for this trial.

Results based on 5pt wins (57 bets):

Total stakes: 285 pts

Total returns: 203.44 pts

Loss 81.56 pts

Rules:

1. Using the Postdata section to be found underneath each race on the Racing Post website, note those runners with more than one tick in the Trainer Form column, indicating that the yard has hit top form.

2. If more than one horse in a race satisfies the above condition, there is no bet for that race.

System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

Staking:

5pts to win on each qualifier.

Logic:

Stables hitting top form can often be the source of spectacular profits within a short period of time. The fact that a stable’s horses are running so well means they can sometimes land races they might not otherwise be expected to win. When that happens, the rewards, in terms of price, can be quite lucrative.

Results based on 5pt wins (105 bets):

Total stakes: 525 pts

Total returns: 419.86 pts

Loss 105.14 pts

Comment: The final result of the trial understates the potential of this method because, during the trail, there were placed horses at 50/1, 33/1, 25/1, 16/1, 14/1, 12/1. and 10/1 (twice), as well as many others at single-figure prices. Using 5 point win stakes, had just a couple of the bigger prices won instead of running close seconds or thirds, the final table would have been transformed (eg the 50/1 bet, which finished second after being hampered, would alone have added an extra 255 points to the returns, ensuring a significant overall profit.

Rules:

1. Concentrate on races with the words ‘handicap’ or 'nursery' in the title, which are taking place on tracks with a significant uphill section (see ‘Tracks - Flat’ and ‘Tracks - NH’ in the left-hand menu, using those tracks with an indicator in the ‘Uphill’ columns).

2. Bet any horse partnered by a claiming rider provided it has at least one vote in the ‘Tips’ column of the Racing Post racecard.

3. If there is more than one qualifier in any race there will be no bet for that race.

System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

Staking:

5pts to win on each qualifier.

Logic:

The effect of weight is grossly overstated on tight and downhill tracks, but it does have a more significant effect when a horse has to run up a hill. A claiming rider effectively lowers his/her mount's handicap mark, and the fact that the horse has also attracted support based on its form criteria makes it a potentially attractive proposition.

Results based on 5pt wins (52 bets):

Total stakes: 260 pts

Total returns: 136.25 pts

Loss 123.75 pts

Comment: In a similar way to System 35, the final result of the trial possibly understates the potential of the method, which looks to have the potential of being useful as a place-only system. Over 40% of the qualifiers won or placed, with the placed horses outnumbering the winners by 16 to 5. There were quite a few decent-priced placed horses including 18/1, 16/1, 14/1, 14/1, 11/1, 10/1 and 9/1 whilst the winners were all shorter than that. It is logical to assume that the claiming riders, despite their mounts enjoying a weight advantage, are weaker in a finish and the results of this trial certainly seem to bear that out.

Rules:

1. Bet any horse whose trainer has won the corresponding race two or more times in the last ten renewals (going back a maximum of ten years), provided he/she has just the one runner in today's race.

2. If more than one trainer has won a race two or more times in the last ten renewals, and is represented today, there is no bet for that race.

System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

Staking:

5pts to win on each qualifier.

Logic:

Trainers often target specific races for some of their horses. The fact that a race has been specifically targeted, rather than a trainer merely finding a potential opening for a horse that is ready to run, signifies a greater level of intent.

In addition, a trainer who has successfully lifted a particular prize on two or more occasions is more likely to know what will be required to do so again.

Results based on 5pt wins (54 bets):

Total stakes: 270 pts

Total returns: 186.86 pts

Loss 83.14 pts

Comment: There were 12 winners at a strike rate of 22.22% but five of them were odds-on, with the top winning price being 6/1. It is apparent that this method produces qualifiers that generally go off at too short a price, probably because trainers who have winning records in certain races are very often highlighted in the media.

Rules:

1. Concentrate only on races containing seven runners or less.

2. In such events, check for horses to have previously made all the running to win a race in the same code as today's (Flat or NH). To avoid confusion, the term 'made all' (or 'made virtually all') in the Racing Post comments-in-running is the key factor, unless it is otherwise obvious from their commentary that the horse led from start to finish.

3. Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.

System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

Staking:

5pts to win on each qualifier.

Logic:

Races with only a handful of runners often develop into tactical affairs with a slow to moderate early pace. In such cases, the place to be is up at the front and many of these races are stolen by prominently ridden horses who get first run on their rivals. When only one of the field has ever made all before, there is a fair chance of that runner enjoying the advantage of an uncontested lead.

Results based on 5pt wins (100 bets):

Total stakes: 500 pts

Total returns: 681.74 pts

Profit +181.74 pts

Comment: A very satisfactory trial. The strike rate was 27% and, in addition to the 27 winners, there were 27 runners-up which meant that 54% of the qualifiers finished in the first two home. The runners-up included a couple of 16/1 shots and a 20/1, so the overall profit could easily have been much higher.

Rules:

1. Concentrate only on handicap races to be run at either: Great Leighs, Lingfield, Kempton, Southwell or Wolverhampton.

2. In such events, check for horses which are clear favourite in the Racing Post betting forecast.

3. Then, check each of these in turn to see whether it has ever run on the track before.

4. If not, lay the horse as per the staking instructions below.

Staking:

Lay at the shortest price that can be matched, to a liability of 5pts for each qualifier (for the purpose of the trial results, the Racing Post betting forecast price is used).

Eg 1: If the target lay price is 7/4, lay a bet of 2.86 pts at 2.75.

Calculation: 5/(7/4) = 2.86 pts at: (7/4) + 1 = 2.75

Eg 2: If the target lay price is 4/7, lay a bet of 8.77 pts at 1.57.

Calculation: 5/(4/7) = 8.77 pts at: (4/7) + 1 = 1.57.

Both above examples give a potential liability of 5 points.

Logic:

If a horse has never run on the all-weather before, there are obvious concerns regarding its suitability to the surface. Even if it has previous all-weather experience, but on a different track to today's, there are still concerns as explained below. In some instances these concerns can be outweighed by the price but, in the case of handicap favourites, that is less likely.

Most backers, although they are aware that Southwell has a Fibresand surface whilst the others have Polytrack, aren't fully aware of the big time differences that exist between these tracks.

If five horses of identical ability set off to run 6f (one at each of the all-weather venues) at exactly the same time, this is what would happen:

The Lingfield horse would beat both the Kempton and Great Leighs horses by 6 lengths (those two would finish in a dead heat). The Wolverhampton horse would finish a further 7.5 lengths behind (that's 13.5 lengths in total behind the Lingfield horse).

The Southwell horse would finish last, 4 lengths behind the Wolverhampton horse, 12 lengths behind GL/K and fully 17.5 lengths behind the Lingfield runner.

Those very significant differences apply to the straightforward sprint distance of 6f, at which almost all races are run at a true pace. It is easy, therefore, to see that much bigger differences can apply at longer trips, especially with many of those races being run tactically.

To give a simple example of the effect that a change in tracks can have, a horse that runs an end-to-end gallop at Lingfield, and just about gets the trip, would have no chance of winning a similarly run contest over the same trip at Wolverhampton because it simply wouldn't stay.

Further notes:

1. Even though Kempton and Great Leighs have the same stamina requirements, they are left in the trial because the former is right-handed and the latter left-handed and there can often be a preference in that regard.

2. Favourites in all-weather handicaps are more likely to be opposed by runners already proven on the track than is the case in non-handicaps, hence the use of handicaps for the trial.

Results based on 50 bets:

Average potential liability (per bet): 4.69 pts

Bets successfully losing: 34

Profit +5.55 pts

Comment: The system held its own without producing spectacular overall results. However, 13 of the last 15 lays were successful, producing a profit of 25.42 pts during that latter sequence and suggesting that perseverance could well pay dividends in the longer term.

Perhaps the most significant trend involved the odds-on favourites. There were 11 odds-on favourites during the trial and only 4 of them managed to win, which is well below the expected win rate for those prices, although that sample is too small to be defining in any way.

Rules:

1. Obtain the necessary data: The Racing Post site provides a 'statistics' link for each meeting of the day. These 'statistics' links provide performance figures for trainers, jockeys and owners, in terms of winners over the last five seasons, at a particular track (where applicable, ensure the appropriate filter for either Flat or Jumps is selected).

2. Use each of these 'statistics' links in turn to identify horses whose connections (trainer, jockey and owner) are all listed within the first five in their respective categories.

3. Repeat the procedure for each meeting of the day (UK meetings only).

4. Bet to win on each qualifier, provided there is not more than one in a race, in which case there is no bet for that particular race.

5. Should a trainer, jockey or owner appear in the first five listed, despite recording no track wins, any horse representing them will not be a qualifier, nor will its presence prevent any other horse being a qualifier in the same race.

System applies to all Flat and NH meetings held in the UK.

Staking:

5 pts to win on each qualifier.

Logic:

Trainers, jockeys and owners who have proven records of success at a particular track are of obvious interest on an individual basis, but when the three combine at the venue they represent a particularly potent force.

Results based on 5pt wins (101 bets):

Total stakes: 505 pts

Total returns: 590.64 pts

Profit +85.64 pts

(please see comment below)

Comment: During the course of this trial, the data provided on the Racing Post 'statistics' links was changed. For the first 66 bets of the trial, the data was restricted to the top five per category, based on winners over the last five years, whether or not they were involved today. From bet 67 onwards, the 'statistics' links were amended to show five-year figures for all trainers, jockeys and owners involved today. The trial continued using this new data.

In retrospect, and having discovered that the original data is still available, I am of the opinion that anyone playing this system should use the original data, rather than that now provided on the 'statistics' links. The data which was used for the first 66 bets can now be found by clicking on the individual meeting names (on the page which summarises today's racing) rather than on the 'statistics' links.

The profit after 66 bets was 160.86 points.

Using the original data, this system looks to have strong potential.

Rules:

Qualifying criteria is as follows:

1. System concentrates on handicap races only (including nurseries).

2. A qualifying runner must have the clear highest official rating (OR) in the race.

3. It must also have finished in the first four home on its last run.

4. Its last run must have been in a UK handicap of a higher class than today's race.

5. Class to be indicated by the Class number (ie 1, 2, 3, 4 etc, where a lower number indicates a higher class).

System applies to all Flat and NH handicaps held in the UK.

For NH handicaps, a qualifier's latest run must have been in the same type of event (ie hurdles or chase) as today's.

Staking:

5 pts to win on each qualifier.

Logic:

Whilst factors like track type, distance, ground etc are all important, class is the single most important consideration. Even if a horse is perfectly suited to today's track, distance and ground, it won't win if it is outclassed.

This system aims to locate handicappers who are not only clear highest rated in a race, but who have also proved themselves to be competitive at a higher level in recent times.

Results based on 5pt wins (100 bets):

Total stakes: 500 pts

Total returns: 477.88 pts

Loss 22.12 pts

Comment: A marginal loss of 4.4% but, overall, this looks a solid system which could be improved upon with one or two more filters. The vast majority of qualifiers are topweights, so filters to emphasise tight and downhill tracks should prove effective.

Rules:

1. Identify any race priced up early by bookmakers.

2. Convert the Racing Post betting forecast prices into percentage chances.

3. Add together these percentage figures.

4. Then divide each percentage figure in turn by the total percentage figure (from step 3) and multiply by 100. This provides a new set of percentage chance figures which add to exactly 100%.

5. Convert bookmakers' early prices into percentage chances.

6. Now divide each of the new percentage figures obtained in step 4 by its corresponding percentage figure from step 5 and multiply by 100. This gives a value index for each runner. A figure above 100 indicates value.

7. Bet to win on the horse with the highest value index (provided it is over 100), taking the early price offered.

8. Should two or more runners have exactly the same high value index, there is no bet for that race.

NB1. The formula for converting prices into percentage chances can be found on the Useful Formulae page.

NB2. Although fairly straightforward, all the above calculations can be carried out quickly and easily using the Price Finder betting tool.

Staking:

5 pts to win on each qualifier.

Logic:

The main difference between an amateur and a professional is that an amateur sets out his/her stall purely in an attempt to unearth the winner of a race, whereas the professional is primarily concerned with quantifying the chance of each runner.

The amateur loses in the long run because he/she will take the best price available for their selection without appreciating its true chance of success, whereas the professional will only bet on a horse that he/she perceives as having a greater chance than the available odds imply. That can only be done by quantifying chance.

Using the Price Finder betting tool to make all the necessary calculations quickly and easily, this trial sets out to assess the accuracy of the Racing Post betting forecast in expressing true chance.

NB. Although any race with a live market can be analysed in this way at any time of day (not necessarily well in advance), only those races priced up early on the evening before racing are covered in this trial.

Results based on 5pt wins (101 bets):

Total stakes: 505 pts

Total returns: 662.50 pts

Profit +157.50 pts

Comment: This trial attempted to establish whether the Racing Post betting forecast is effective in expressing true chance. The qualifiers were all significantly shorter in the RP forecast than in the early live markets and most of them were outsiders.

The 101 qualifiers produced 8 winners at early prices of: 50/1, 20/1, 20/1, 12/1, 10/1, 8/1, 11/2 and 5/1. Their corresponding SPs were: 28/1, 12/1, 8/1, 14/1, 17/2, 4/1, 11/2 and 4/1. So 6 of the 8 SPs were significantly shorter than early prices, indicating that the winning qualifiers had indeed provided good value.

In addition to the winners, 15 qualifiers finished second or third at early prices of: 100/1, 20/1, 12/1, 12/1, 10/1, 10/1, 10/1, 8/1, 7/1, 6/1, 11/2, 5/1, 9/2, 4/1 and 3/1.

Significantly, only 18 of the 101 qualifiers returned an SP bigger than its early price, confirming that overall value was indeed obtained throughout the trial. Such a rate of price contraction would also be of interest to the exchange traders, who would easily have been able to lay off many of the qualifiers at far shorter than early prices.

Rules:

1. The horse finished second on its latest outing.

2. The jockey on board that day was partnering the horse for the first time.

3. The same jockey rides again today.

4. No bet in races with more than one qualifier.

5. System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

Staking:

5 pts to win on each qualifier.

Logic:

A horse/jockey partnership can be more significant than some punters realise. Many horses have quirks or certain ways of running that are only fully appreciated by jockeys to have ridden the horse before.

If a new partnership was in action for the first time recently, the race should still be fresh in the jockey's mind. If the partnership went close to scoring on that first occasion, the experience gained could be enough for the jockey to get the horse home in front next time.

Results based on 5pt wins (57 bets):

Total stakes: 285 pts

Total returns: 267.97 pts

Loss 17.03 pts

Comment: It was touch and go whether to let this trial run for a further 50 bets as the first 50 came out more or less level. There were 12 winners and a further 12 placed from the total of 57 qualifiers (42% in the first three home). The trial results were based on SP but it is very likely a profit would have been made using early prices.

Rules:

1. Identify all meetings to be held on tight tracks, as designated in the 'Tracks - Flat' and 'Tracks - NH' tables to be found in the Pro Betting Guide (main menu).

2. Identify any horse running under a penalty at these meetings. Horses running under a penalty are indicated on the Racing Post racecards by the penalty followed by an 'x' (eg. '6x') shown after its name.

3. Bet each to win, unless there is more than one qualifier in the same race, in which case there is no bet for that race.

4. System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

Staking:

5 pts to win on each qualifier.

Logic:

Results based on 5pt wins (150 bets):

Total stakes: 750 pts

Total returns: 806.22 pts

Profit +56.22 pts

Comment: A solid 28% strike rate combined with an acceptable profit. This is a method that should continue to at least hold its own over a long period of time.

Rules:

1. Identify any runner returning to the track following an absence of 200 days or more.

2. Note the trainer of the horse.

3. Check the Racing Post Stats for the track and identify any of the above trainers who have achieved either a level stakes profit or a strike rate of 20% or more.

4. Bet to win on any qualifying horse.

5. If there are two or more qualifiers in the same race there is no bet for that race.

System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

Staking:

5 pts to win on each qualifier.

Logic:

One of the factors that tends to put punters off backing a horse they may otherwise support is a long absence from the track.

The ability of proficient trainers to ready a horse following a long absence tends to be underestimated and many of these horses go off at bigger prices than they should, purely because of over-caution and uncertainty on the part of punters.

Results based on 5pt wins (150 bets)

Total stakes: 750 pts

Total returns: 765.52 pts

Profit +15.52 pts

Comment: This one required some patience but it got there in the end. With only a 13/8 winner to show from the first 42 bets, things looked bleak. Then a remarkable transformation saw a profit of 212 points made from the last 108 bets, and that doesn't include a disqualified 10/1 winner which would have added a further 50 points. The overall strike rate was modest at around 13% but the SPs of some of the winners (22/1, 20/1, 20/1, 10/1, 9/1, 9/1, 8/1, 15/2) showed that they were indeed greatly underestimated in the market.

Rules:

1. Identify all runners to have won over the course and distance of today's race (indicated by the abbreviation 'CD' on the Racing Post race card).

2. Check each one in turn and identify any to have won on the track more than once. Course wins need not all have been over the distance of today's race provided at least one of them was.

3. Bet each qualifier to win, provided there are no other qualifiers in the same race, in which case there is no bet for that race.

Notes:

Turf and all-weather tracks at the same venue are classed as different tracks.

All race types are treated collectively.

System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

Staking:

5 pts to win on each qualifier.

Logic:

Many horses raise their performance levels when returning to their favourite track, to the extent that recent form at other venues becomes insignificant  This means they can often be underestimated in the market.

Results based on 5pt wins (102 bets)

Total stakes: 510 pts

Total returns: 488.14 pts

Loss 21.86 pts

Comment: A marginal deficit. Of the 102 bets, 19 won (18.6%) with a further 30 hitting the frame. A total of 49 were therefore placed (48%). With qualifiers hitting the frame at 10/1, 10/1, 8/1, 8/1, 7/1, 7/1 it is clear that a further trial of similar length could easily produce a reasonable profit, particularly if filters regarding class and ground conditions were introduced.

Rules:

1. Use the Racing Post Ratings (RPR) links to be found directly underneath each race card on the Racing Post website.

2. Look only at the two columns on the far right of the 'Last 6 RPR' section. These figures are the ratings awarded for a horse's two most recent runs.

3. Identify any runner with two ratings that are both higher than any achieved by its opponents.

4. Bet all qualifiers to win.

System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

Staking:

5 pts to win on each qualifier.

Logic:

Racing Post Ratings, despite placing too much emphasis on weight (see blog dated 14/6/08), still provide a much better guide to recent performance levels than bare form figures do. Any horse whose last two ratings are both higher than any achieved by its rivals on their last two outings clearly has an edge in terms of recent form.

Results based on 5pt wins (106 bets)

Total stakes: 530 pts

Total returns: 488.49 pts

Loss 41.51 pts

Comment: This method produced a healthy 36% strike rate and showed a continuous profit for the first half of the trial before dropping away somewhat towards the end, The main reason for the later decline would appear to have been an increase in qualifiers running under different conditions than those under which they had achieved their top ratings (for example, horses moving from turf to all-weather or vice versa, or switching between chasing and hurdling).

This kind of change can easily be spotted by looking for ratings given in italics. These signify that there is a fundamental difference between the race rated in italics and today's contest.

It is suggested, therefore, that if either of a qualifier's ratings are in italics then the race should be discounted and no bet made. This filter should significantly improve the performance of what had otherwise looked a promising method.

Rules:

1. Find the Racing Post web page which summarises today's racecards.

2. In turn, click on the 'Favourites' link for each meeting.

3. Ensure the appropriate statistics for today's racing are selected (ie 'Flat' or 'Jumps').

4. From the '£1 stake' columns, find the highest individual profit figure for the day (don't include the 'Total' figures).

5. Now, look for the races in that category (for example: 2yo non-handicap etc) which are taking place at that particular track today.

6. If there are no races for that track/category, move on to the next-highest profit figure for the day until you find a qualifying race.

7. Bet the favourite to win, but without naming it.

8. If the highest qualifying profit figure applies to more than one race, bet on all qualifying races.

System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

Notes:

1. When searching for qualifying races, use the link entitled 'Show all racecards for this meeting on one page' and then use the top-line race title/descriptions to establish race types and qualifying ages.

2. Take care with the age 'plus signs'. For example, the statistics for '3yo' refer to 3yo only (not 3yo+).

3. When racing takes place on a particular track over consecutive days, the favourites statistics will update overnight. However, due to time constraints, the published qualifying races for the trial are taken from statistics available the evening before racing.

Staking:

5 pts to win on each qualifier.

Logic:

Favourites have a far better long-term record in certain types of races than they do in others. Additionally, favourites have a far better long-term record on certain tracks than they do on others. The fact that the statistics are based on SP means that these profitable race categories and tracks are supplying favourites which are generally running at bigger prices than they should. In addition, because the average price of favourites is relatively short, the statistics are far less likely to be skewed by a small number of bigger-priced winners. It is always the level-stake profit figure, and not the strike rate figure, which is most relevant in determining potential value.

Results based on 5pt wins (51 bets)

Total stakes: 255 pts

Total returns: 250.05 pts

Loss 4.95 pts

Comment: 18 winners from 51 qualifiers (35%) provided a break-even performance. This goes a long way to demonstrating that historical profit trends are very unlikely to influence future profit trends. This makes sense because every race is a completely separate entity, a unique set of circumstances both in terms of horses and the betting, which has not previously been replicated, nor will be in the future.

Rules:

1. Check the Racing Post Selection Box for each race of the day.

2. In races where just two horses are selected, bet the one with the fewest votes.

3. There is no bet for races where two horses are selected with equal votes.

Staking:

5 pts to win on each qualifier.

Logic:

The Racing Post provides a list of newspaper tipsters' selections for each race, usually numbering a dozen or more. These lists seem to be very popular tools used by punters when making their own choices. What punters don't always realise, however, is that the collective opinion of these tipsters can be greatly exaggerated.

For example, let's say there is a race where two contenders stand out. There is very little between them, but a particular piece of form seems to give one of them a slight edge. The newspaper tipsters, being experienced form readers, will all pick up on this one factor and give a narrow verdict to the same horse. We then see something like a 12-1 verdict between the two runners in question, which appears to be a very confident majority vote. In actual fact, all the tipsters have realised there is very little between the two runners in question, but one small factor has swayed them all the same way. Punters, unsurprisingly, interpret a very confident majority verdict and the market subsequently reflects their belief. This situation is bound to lead to disproportionate prices, sometimes massively so. Nine times out of ten in these situations, the value has to lie with the bigger priced runner.

Results based on 5pt wins (50 bets)

Total stakes: 250 pts

Total returns: 216.26 pts

Loss 33.74 pts

Comment: The 50 bets produced 9 winners (18%) and a fairly small loss of 13%. Interestingly and despite the moderate strike rate, a total of 28 bets were placed (56%). After 43 bets the trial was still in profit, so the overall result was marginal and could possibly have reverted to profit had the trial continued..

Rules:

1. Concentrate on all races run over 7f.

2. This trial uses distance limits of +/- 50 yards (6f 170y to 7f 50y inclusive).

3. In each qualifying race, bet the shortest priced runner in the Racing Post betting forecast to have recorded two or more wins which are listed as 7f in the 'Wins' section of its Racing Post horse history.

4. In races where two or more runners are equal shortest priced qualifiers there is no bet for that race.

System applies to all UK 7f races (turf and all-weather).

Staking:

5 pts to win on each qualifier.

Logic:

Being neither a sprint trip nor a mile, 7f is the distance over which the most potent specialists are to be found. In contrast to failed sprinters raised in distance and failed milers dropped in distance, 7f specialists are made for the job. Forecast favourites who have never won over the trip before may be vulnerable against these specialists.

Results based on 5pt wins (50 bets)

Total stakes: 250 pts

Total returns: 232.92 pts

Loss 17.08 pts

Comment: The 50 bets produced 10 winners (20%) and a further 14 placed runners (48% won or placed). The loss was marginal (6.8%) and there is scope for improved performance with the addition of appropriate filters to the basic rules.

Rules:

1. Concentrate on Flat handicap races (including nurseries) which are run on tight tracks over distances of between 7f and 10f inclusive.

2. For a list of tight tracks see the Flat track matrix.

3. Round actual race distances to the nearest furlong. Outer limits are therefore 6f 111y and 10f 109y.

4. Bet to win on all clear topweights (ignore any jockey claims).

System applies to UK Flat races (turf and all-weather).

Staking:

5 pts to win on each qualifier.

Logic:

We have already proved in several system trials that the effect of weight is overestimated in the betting markets. This is especially the case on tight tracks, where horses never get into a protracted gallop when weight may become an issue. The distance limits of the trial are specifically chosen to make full use of the bends on tight tracks, eliminating straight races whilst also negating any potential stamina issues.

Results based on 5pt wins (50 bets)

Total stakes: 250 pts

Total returns: 86.25 pts

Loss 163.75 pts

Comment: The final result doesn't provide an accurate picture and, in retrospect, the trial should have been given a longer run. No less than 10 of the 50 bets (20%) finished second, most of them by narrow margins, at prices of up to 16/1. This is definitely a topic which deserves to be revisited in the future.

Rules:

1. Bet to win on any horse that has never been beaten in any race listed in its Racing Post horse history (including non-UK races and PTP).

2. If there are two or more qualifiers in a race there is no bet for that race.

3. Unraced horses are ignored.

System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

Staking:

5 pts to win on each qualifier.

Logic:

It is never easy to assess the full potential of a horse that is yet to be beaten. The aim of this trial is to discover whether punters tend to underestimate these horses.

Results based on 5pt wins (200 bets)

Total stakes: 1000 pts

Total returns: 1265.02 pts

Profit +265.02 pts

Comment: Undoubtedly one of the most exciting trials so far. The 200 bets produced 62 winners (31%) and a further 52 placings meaning that 57% of the bets won or placed. The profit of 265 points from a total stake of 1000 points represented a 26.5% return.

It is clear that punters consistently underestimate the potential of these lightly-raced horses, particularly those from lower profile yards. The trial was based on SP returns so a significantly higher profit could be expected from early prices.

Rules:

1. Bet to win on any horse running from a rating which is above the ceiling for that particular race.

2. The ceiling for a race, if there is one, will be published at the top of the Racing Post race card (eg. 0-80 indicates a race for horses with a maximum official rating of 80).

3. Official ratings for individual runners are shown in the 'OR' column on the right of the Racing Post race card.

4. If there are two or more qualifiers in the same race, there will be no bet for that particular race.

System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

Staking:

5 pts to win on each qualifier.

Logic:

Having originally been eligible to enter a particular race, based on its official rating at the time of the entries, a horse may then win another contest. The resulting penalty incurred for its interim success may mean that it will now run from a rating which is higher than the maximum intended by the rules of the race. Effectively, the horse is now running in a lower level of contest than it would otherwise be allowed to enter. The aim of this trial is to discover whether punters underestimate this class advantage.

Results based on 5pt wins (50 bets)

Total stakes: 250 pts

Total returns: 148.70 pts

Loss 101.30 pts

Comment: This trial began well but fizzled away in the second half, due to the very high number of placed horses. From a profitable situation after 28 bets, the following 22 bets contained just one winner together with 13 placings (9 of those runner-up). A re-run could easily produce break-even figures but the runners were generally too well supported to expect spectacular profits.

Rules:

1. Bet to win on any horse running within 5 days of a previous outing.

2. Whenever there is more than one qualifier in a race, there will be no bet for that race.

System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

Staking:

5 pts to win on each qualifier.

Logic:

Horses reappearing very quickly normally do so for a good reason. A winning horse may be out again quickly to avoid the handicapper. A losing horse may be out again quickly to recoup losses. A horse may have been given a prep spin shortly before a target race. Some horses thrive on racing and are given multiple entries when they hit form.

This trial will attempt to determine whether punters accurately quantify the chances of horses making quick reappearances.

Results based on 5pt wins (103 bets)

Total stakes: 515 pts

Total returns: 461.45 pts

Loss 53.55 pts

Comment: This looks pretty much a break-even trend in the long term. The balance swung from profit to loss and back again a few times during the trial with the highest and lowest points never more than about 15% of the total amount staked. Having said that, the trial was deliberately run with no rules at all, other than a horse reappearing quickly. If a long-term break-even situation can be produced at SP without any filters, there must be potential for success when carefully considered filters are applied.

Rules:

1. Bet to win on the horse with the highest official rating at each meeting.

2. When more than one horse shares the top official rating at a meeting there will be no bet for that meeting.

System applies to all UK meetings (Flat and NH).

Staking:

5 pts to win on each qualifier.

Logic:

Superior class is often enough to pull a horse through, even when prevailing conditions may not be ideal. This simple trial will assess whether punters underestimate class, particularly when other factors may appear to be negative. The horses backed are all, according to the official handicapper, the best on view at their respective meetings.

Results based on 5pt wins (103 bets)

Total stakes: 515 pts

Total returns: 594.73 pts

Profit +79.73 pts

Comment: To follow.

Rules:

1. Bet any horse that is clear favourite in the Racing Post betting forecast provided it failed to finish in the first four on its last run.

2. Forecast favourites making their racecourse debut will not qualify.

System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

Staking:

5 pts to win on each qualifier.

Logic:

A horse's most recent run, be it good or bad, is often emphasised to a greater degree than is wise. A recent run under unsuitable conditions, or with another valid excuse for defeat, can lead to a horse generating less support that it deserves on its next outing.

Also, finishing positions outside the first four can generally be viewed as being poor when in fact they may have been solid or promising runs, and perhaps in better company than today's.

Results based on 5pt wins (59 bets)

Total stakes: 295 pts

Total returns: 200.94 pts

Loss 94.06 pts

Comment: To follow.

Rules:

1. Bet any horse travelling 200 miles or more to a track at which it has previously been successful.

2. If there is more than one qualifier in a race, there will be no bet for that race.

Travelling distances for each meeting can be found on the 'Today's Horse Racing Cards' page on the Racing Post site (under the 'Signposts' headings).

System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

Staking:

5 pts to win on each qualifier.

Logic:

Horses aren't usually sent on long journeys lightly. If a horse has previously won at a remote venue and connections decide to send it back there again, it is usually because they have found a good opportunity for another successful visit.

Results based on 5pt wins (150 bets)

Total stakes: 750 pts

Total returns: 739.58 pts

Loss 10.42 pts

Comment: To follow.

Rules:

1. Bet any horse if it is the youngest runner in a handicap.

2. If there is more than one qualifier in a race, there will be no bet for that race.

System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

Staking:

5 pts to win on each qualifier.

Logic:

Unexposed horses are often underestimated in the market because punters are unsure of their potential. Younger handicappers usually have less experience than their older rivals but they generally possess the greater scope for improvement.

Results based on 5pt wins (52 bets)

Total stakes: 260 pts

Total returns: 195.00 pts

Loss 65.00 pts

Comment: To follow.