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| | Systems
Archive
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Each
system is trialled for a minimum of 50 bets in order to evaluate its
performance and potential usefulness.
A
wide variety of tactics are tested through the various systems, some of
which you may wish to apply to your own personal betting strategy.
50
bets is obviously not a totally convincing sample but it enables me to
trial more systems and methods during the year. On occasions, however,
when a system is performing well after the standard 50 bets, the trial
may be extended to 100 bets or more.
Please
note that these systems are deliberately trialled using very few rules.
The idea being that, should a method show promise in its basic form,
then there is good potential for further improvement with the addition
of carefully considered filters. |
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Topweights
System
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A
profitable system which involves betting to win on topweights in
all NH handicap races run over a trip of less than 3 miles on a
tight track (for a list of tight tracks please refer to the NH
Track Matrix)
Results
to £100 win level stakes:
163
Bets
Profit
£5,922
To
5 point win bets: Profit +296.10 pts
NB.
By removing both Plumpton and Wetherby from the qualifying tracks,
the profit was increased to £7,322 from a total of 145 bets - see
Steve's Blog dated 8 April 2008.
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System
1: Speed Horse
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Rules:
Calculate
the top speed horse of the day from Dave Edwards' Topspeed page
on the Racing Post site (UK meetings only).
The
top speed horse is selected by adding each horse's highest
overall rating (last 12 months) to its most recent rating, then
dividing by two.
In
the event of a tie, the selection will have the best finishing
position on its last run. If there is still a tie there is no
bet.
Staking:
Stake
1pt for each full 10pts the selection achieves (e.g. a horse
with a score of 65 will carry a stake of 6pts). Maximum stake is
10pts.
Logic:
These
speed ratings are very good for those who haven't time to
calculate their own, and the horse with the highest combined
total of the day should be expected to go well, as we are
considering its most recent run as well as its best in the last
12 months.
Results
based on 50 bets:
Total
stakes: 191 pts
Total
returns: 222.32 pts
Profit
+31.32 pts
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System
2: Unnamed Favourites
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Rules:
Find
the race with the lowest prize money for the winner (UK meetings
only).
Bet
the favourite to win, but without naming it.
Staking:
5pts
to win on each day's selected race.
In
the unlikely event of there being more than one race carrying
the lowest winning prize, stake 5 pts to win on each.
Logic:
Following
the market can be misleading in high value and high profile
races. The shrewd money is often masked by uneducated money.
That
is not the case in low value races, which are mainly ignored by
amateur punters. Following the market in these races tends to be
more reliable.
Results
based on 5pt wins (50 bets):
Total
stakes: 250 pts
Total
returns: 229.66 pts
Loss
20.34 pts
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System
3: Recovery Mission
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Rules:
Bet
any horse to win that was a beaten favourite on its latest run
(within the last 50 days), provided that it is being ridden by
the top jockey at today's track.
The
top jockey for this purpose is defined as the one (of those
riding today) with the most course winners over the last 5
seasons (as given in the Racing Post) - should there be two
jockeys with the same total, there is no bet for that meeting.
Staking:
5pts
to win on each selection.
In
the unlikely event of there being equal 'top jockeys' for a
particular course, there will be no bets at that course for that
day.
Logic:
Having
been expected to win on its last outing but failing to do so, a
horse is now being partnered by the leading jockey at today's
track in an attempt to recover previous losses.
Results
based on 5pt wins (50 bets):
Total
stakes: 250 pts
Total
returns: 231.57 pts
Loss
18.43 pts
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System
4: Classy 3yo Handicappers
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Rules:
In
any 3yo handicap race, work down the racecard from the top, and
bet the first horse you come to which was placed first, second
or third on its last run.
In
the event of there being no qualifier by the time you are
halfway down the card there is no bet.
Staking:
5pts
to win on each selection.
Logic:
3yos
at the top of the handicap are improving horses (as opposed to
older topweights who may be declining, but are still at the top
based on what they did a long time ago). We have already shown
that the effect of weight is grossly overstated in most cases,
so the official handicapper has saved us a lot of form study by
telling us the best horses. We then just need to look for
confirmation of current form.
Results
based on 5pt wins (50 bets):
Total
stakes: 250 pts
Total
returns: 308.13 pts
Profit
+58.13 pts
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System
5: Horses for Distances
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Rules:
In
any race, bet a horse if it is the only previous winner over
today's distance, provided that it is also one of the first
three named in the Racing Post betting forecast.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
to win on each selection.
Logic:
Horses
are very susceptible to changes in distance. They may not
perform at their best with even a slight increase or decrease in
the distance they have to run. If there is only one horse that
has previously won over today's distance it may well hold a big
advantage over the others.
More
than half of all winners are in the first three named in the
Racing Post betting forecast, so this qualifying factor
eliminates no-hopers whose distance win may have been a long
time ago, or in a very low grade.
Results
based on 5pt wins (100 bets):
Total
stakes: 500 pts
Total
returns: 516.96 pts
Profit
+16.96 pts
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System
6: Recent Winners
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Rules:
On
any day, select the horse which has the least number of days
since its last win.
If
there is more than one qualifier in different races on the same
day, they are all bet equally to win.
If
there is more than one qualifier in the same race, the race will
be ignored.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
to win on each selection.
Logic:
Horses
which are in top form are often likely to follow up a recent
win. They are sometimes entered again quickly to avoid big
penalties from the handicapper. They are often horses that
thrive on quick reappearances, and once they hit form are
difficult to stop whilst in the same mood.
Results
based on 5pt wins (100 bets):
Total
stakes: 500 pts
Total
returns: 759.28 pts
Profit
+259.28 pts
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System
7: Against the Short Prices
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Rules:
In
any race where the Racing Post predict an odds-on favourite, bet
the second-named horse in their betting forecast.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts to win on each selection.
Logic:
Short-priced
favourites win less often than they are given credit for, and as
a betting medium they offer little value in general terms. The
true value in the race often lies with the runner which appears
to hold the highest realistic chance of the remainder.
Results
based on 5pt wins (52 bets)
Total
stakes: 260 pts
Total
returns: 169.42 pts
Loss
90.58 pts
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System
8: Big Concessions
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Rules:
In
handicap races only, select the horse that is giving the biggest
weight concession of the day (the largest weight differential
between a top and a second-top weight). Should there be joint
qualifiers there will be a bet on each.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
to win on each selection.
Logic:
The
horse at the top of the handicap is officially rated as being the
best horse in the race. Therefore, the horse giving the biggest
weight concession is also the horse with the biggest class
advantage.
Having
already proved that the effect of weight is often overstated, the
class advantage can often prove more effective than the penalty.
Results
based on 5pt wins (50 bets):
Total
stakes: 250 pts
Total
returns: 108.42 pts
Loss
141.58 pts
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System
9: Each-Way Value
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Rules:
In
any race with 5 declared runners, place an each-way bet on the
second-named horse in the Racing Post betting forecast.
In
cases where a subsequent non-runner is declared the bet stands as
win-only for system purposes (this provision is made on the basis
that bets are often placed early in the day).
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
each-way on each selection.
Logic:
As
a general rule, I don't advocate each-way betting.
A
carefully researched 20/1 shot is only equivalent to a 6/4 winner
when placed second or third in an 8-runner race, giving very poor
value (a 1pt e/w stake would return 5pts at a fifth odds, making it
equal to a 6/4 win).
Contrary
to popular belief, the best value for each-way backers is found in
races of 5 runners, where the return for a place is a quarter odds.
Importantly too, the two places in a 5-runner event account for 40%
of the total (only 37.5% for the 1-2-3 in an 8-runner race and a
poor 25% or less in races of 16+).
Not
generally understood, also, is the fact that each-way betting is
more effective at lower prices. The missed profit on winning long
shots is never compensated by the poor place returns for those that
are narrowly beaten - big prices are always better backed as
win-only in the long term.
In
races of 5 runners, the each-way value is often found with the
second horse in the betting forecast. It holds a realistic chance of
winning, whilst also being expected to beat the other three home,
thus saving well over 50% of the total outlay when beaten into
second place.
Results
based on 5pt each-ways (54 bets):
Total
stakes: 540 pts
Total
returns: 586.98 pts
Profit
+46.98 pts
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System
10: Tactical Rides
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Rules:
1.
Find the race with the least number of runners of the day.
2.
Bet the horse which is to be ridden by the jockey with the most
winning rides at the track in the last 5 years (of those riding
in the race).
3.
In cases where two jockeys have ridden the same number of
winners there is no bet.
4.
On days where more than one race has the least runners there is
a bet in each of those races.
5.
System applies to all UK races.
Staking:
5pts
to win on each selection.
Logic:
Jockeys
who have proven knowledge and ability on a specific track tend
to have an advantage over those who haven't. This is even more
apparent in small fields, where races often turn out to be
tactical affairs.
I
opt for the number of winners a jockey has ridden on the track
in preference to strike rate, which can often be misleading -
especially when a low number of qualifying rides is evident.
Results
based on 5pt wins (50 bets):
Total
stakes: 250 pts
Total
returns: 273.88 pts
Profit
+23.88 pts
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System
11: Long Travellers
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Rules:
Bet
the horse travelling the longest distance of the day, provided
that there is only one qualifier. If the longest trip of the day
is being made by more than one horse there is no bet.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
to win on each selection.
Logic:
Horses
don't normally travel alone for extreme distances unless they are
thought to have a reasonable chance of success. Sometimes, when a
stable or training centre already have a few representatives
making the trip it isn't a hardship to include one or two more,
but sole representatives on long journeys tend to be on a mission.
Results
based on 5pt wins (50 bets):
Total
stakes: 250 pts
Total
returns: 303.36 pts
Profit
+53.36 pts
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System
12: Cheekpieces
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Rules:
Bet
the shortest-priced horse (Racing Post tissue prices) that is
wearing cheekpieces for the first time. If there is more than one
qualifier bet them equally, unless they are in the same race in
which case there is no bet.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
to win on each selection.
Logic:
As
opposed to first-time blinkers and visors, which aren't as
effective as they are on the second wearing due to many horses
running too keenly on first application, cheekpieces, an
increasingly popular form of headgear, tend to have a more
positive effect the first time they are worn.
Results
based on 5pt wins (50 bets):
Total
stakes: 250 pts
Total
returns: 118.75 pts
Loss
131.25 pts
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System
13: Stamina Specialists
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Rules:
Look
for the race to be run over the longest distance of the day. If
more than one are joint-longest, consider all qualifying races
together.
Using
Racing Post tissue prices, bet the shortest-priced horse that is a
previous distance winner. If more than one qualifier there is no
bet. If there are no previous distance winners in the longest or
joint-longest races there is no bet.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
to win on each selection.
Logic:
With
extra emphasis on stamina, the ability of a horse to get the trip
is more important than at shorter distances.
Previous
distance scorers have already proved their stamina, and their
advantage is magnified at longer trips. They are often able to
outstay classier opponents who are being upped in distance.
Results
based on 5pt wins (50 bets):
Total
stakes: 250 pts
Total
returns: 167.42 pts
Loss
82.58 pts
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System
14: Hat Trick Attempts
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Rules:
Bet
any horse that has won its last two races, provided that it is not
racing in a higher grade than for its last win. If there are any
other runners in the same race that have won their last two or
more races there is no bet.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
to win on each selection.
Logic:
The
vast majority of horses never win a race of any kind in their
lives, so the completion of a hat trick of successes is seen as a
fine achievement. That being the case, preparation for the hat
trick bid is thorough, and the confidence that winning brings adds
further to the chances of the horse, especially if there is no
hike in class and there are no opponents in a similar run of form.
Results
based on 5pt wins (53 bets):
Total
stakes: 265 pts
Total
returns: 118.16 pts
Loss
146.84 pts
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System
15: Last Year's Winner
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Rules:
Bet
any horse (flat or NH) that won the corresponding race last year.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
to win on each selection.
Logic:
The
most conclusive proof that a horse is suited by the conditions of
a race lies in the fact that it won the same event the previous
year.
Granted
that there may be certain variances the second time around, such
as ground conditions, draw, jockey etc, but the horse has already
shown a definite suitability to the three most important
considerations: class, track, and distance.
Horses
that won a race the previous year are often trained specifically
with the same race in mind the following season.
Results
based on 5pt wins (52 bets)
Total
stakes: 260 pts
Total
returns: 162.58 pts
Loss
97.42 pts
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System
16: The CD System
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Rules:
Bet
any horse that is the sole previous course and distance (CD)
winner in its race, provided there are no other previous course
winners in the line-up.
Course
winners over other trips do not qualify, even though they may also
have won over today's trip on a different track.
System
applies to both flat and NH racing.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
to win on each selection.
Logic:
This
was the original 'cdsystem' after which an early version of the
present site was named and built
in May 2000. The logic behind it is fairly obvious, in that many
horses have their favourite tracks as well as having an optimum
distance. If a horse is the only one in the race to have won over
today's course and distance it basically has much less to prove
than its rivals in that respect.
Obviously
there are other important form criteria, such as the class of the
race and ground conditions, but the essence of this series of
systems is simplicity. It is often the fact that horses are
unfancied due to other criteria, but are selected simply because they
comply with a basic system, that leads to bigger-priced winners
being thrown up when more scrupulous study would often dismiss
them.
Results
based on 5pt wins (100 bets)
Total
stakes: 500 pts
Total
returns: 540.47 pts
Profit
+40.47 pts
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System
17: In-form Distance Winners
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Rules:
Bet
any horse that won its last race, provided that the win came
within the last ten days, and provided that it has also previously
won over the distance of today's race.
Ignore
any race in which there is more than one qualifier.
System
applies to both flat and NH racing.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
to win on each selection.
Logic:
This
system plays on the advantages of in-form horses which were very
successfully highlighted in System 6 (Recent Winners), but with
the additional option of being able to use more than one selection
in any one racing day if appropriate.
The
qualifying criteria of at least one previous distance win should
restrict the number of bets to an acceptable level, whilst also
ensuring that today's trip is suitable for the already in-form
runners.
Results
based on 5pt wins (100 bets)
Total
stakes: 500 pts
Total
returns: 596.14 pts
Profit
+96.14 pts
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System
18: Beaten Favourites After A Rest
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Rules:
Bet
any horse that was a beaten favourite in its last race, provided
that it has a had a break of more than 30 days since then, and
also provided that it has previously won over today's distance.
Ignore
any race in which there is more than one qualifier.
System
applies to both flat and NH racing.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
to win on each selection.
Logic:
Having
been expected to win on its last outing, but failing to do so, a
horse that may not have given its true running has now been rested
with a view to gaining compensation in a carefully chosen and
suitable event, and when fit and ready to do so.
This
is often a more suitable strategy than rushing a horse into
attempting to gain quick compensation when conditions may not be
ideal.
The
qualifying criteria of at least one previous distance win should
restrict the number of bets to an acceptable level, whilst also
ensuring that today's trip is suitable.
Results
based on 5pt wins (51 bets)
Total
stakes: 255 pts
Total
returns: 255.25 pts
Profit
+0.25 pts
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System 19: First-time Blinkers on Handicap Debut
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Rules:
Bet any horse that is wearing
blinkers for the first time in its career when the race also happens
to be its handicap debut.
For the purpose of
this method, handicap debut is taken to mean the horse's first run in
a handicap of the type in which it is entered today (either turf flat,
a/w flat, chase or hurdles).
System doesn't apply to any
other form of headgear.
Ignore races in which there is
more than one qualifier.
System applies to both flat and
NH racing.
System applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts to win on each selection.
Logic:
It is common practice for some trainers
to run horses under less than optimum conditions in races which qualify
them for a handicap mark. Having achieved a competitive rating for the
horse the trainer is then faced with the task of taking advantage of
it. He will attempt to do that by selecting the ideal conditions for his
runner, in terms of track type, distance and ground.
It is a fact that blinkers, more often than not,
work better on subsequent applications
than they do the first time. However, on the occasions that they do enhance a performance on
their first application the results can be
spectacular. A generous rating for a handicap debut and an ideal set of
conditions can further enhance the effect of first-time blinkers on
the occasions that they do provide this spectacular improvement.
Results
based on 5pt wins (50 bets)
Total
stakes: 250 pts
Total
returns: 0 pts
Loss
250 pts
Comment:
the way the trialled horses ran under this set of conditions (only two
were placed) makes this
method ideal for laying purposes.
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System
20: Tipster Trend Reversal
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Rules:
In
the Racing Post Naps Competition bet the nap provided by the
tipster with the longest current losing sequence.
If
there is more than one qualifier there is no bet.
As
many press tipsters do not operate on Sundays the system will
operate from Monday to Saturday inclusive.
Staking:
5pts to win on each selection.
Logic:
On
the basis that the livelihood of these press correspondents is
ultimately dependant on the results they produce, long losing
sequences can hardly be beneficial to them or to their
newspaper.
Tipsters
on a current winning run can afford to take chances they may not
otherwise contemplate, whilst the main objective of a tipster on
a long losing sequence is primarily to end it.
Results
based on 5pt wins (100 bets)
Total
stakes: 500 pts
Total
returns: 524.08 pts
Profit
+24.08 pts
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System
21: Favourites
In Big Fields
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Rules:
Each
day select the non-handicap race with the most runners.
Bet
the favourite to win, but without naming it.
If
there are two or more qualifying races there is no bet.
System
applies to UK races only.
System
applies to both flat and NH races.
Once
the qualifying bet is published it will stand regardless of any
late non-runners, either in the same race or in any other.
Staking:
5pts to win on each selection.
Logic:
There
is an old saying: 'the bigger the field the better the
favourite' and, as in all old proverbs, there is an element of
substance to it - this trial will hopefully prove just how much.
Races
with more runners tend to be truly-run affairs, as opposed to
those with small fields which often provide no early pace and no
cover for the runners that need it.
Races
with big fields are also much less competitive, on many
occasions, than they first appear. They often contain many
runners that have no realistic chance of winning. That applies
much more so to non-handicap events, on which the system is
based.
Results
based on 5pt wins (100 bets)
Total
stakes: 500 pts
Total
returns: 482.29 pts
Loss
17.71 pts
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System
22: The Benefit of Previous Experience
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Rules:
In
races where more than half the field is unraced, bet the
shortest-priced runner with previous experience.
For
price comparison use Racing Post tissues.
If
there is more than on qualifier in a race there is no bet for
that race.
System
applies to UK flat races only (not NH flat).
Staking:
5pts to win on each selection.
Logic:
The
benefit of previous experience is often understated in the
betting market. A less talented runner with experience can often
beat a more illustrious newcomer who is making its first visit
to the racetrack, even though the more talented rival will
eventually develop into a much better prospect.
No
matter how well a newcomer has been performing at home, there is
no guarantee that its promise will be fulfilled when it
encounters the hustle and bustle of a race day for the first
time.
A
runner that has seen it all before is much more likely to show
its true form or to improve on what it has already shown.
Results
based on 5pt wins (101 bets)
Total
stakes: 505 pts
Total
returns: 642.03 pts
Profit
+137.03 pts
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System
23: Laying Older Handicappers
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Rules:
In
handicap races containing 4yos and above, lay the Racing Post
forecast favourite unless it won its last race.
Where
there are joint forecast favourites there is no bet regardless of
whether any of them won last time out.
System
applies to UK flat races only (not NH flat).
Staking:
Lay
at the Racing Post forecast price to a liability of one point for
every consecutive race the selection has lost.
Eg.
If the forecast favourite is 5/2 and is on a losing run of 20 then
the potential gain is 8 points (20 divided by 2.5) and the
potential liability is 20 points.
Logic:
The
most unreliable type of race for favourite backers is a handicap
for older horses. These runners often struggle to maintain a
consistent level of form and are unlikely to be on the upgrade.
They are often struggling on handicap marks which, because of
earlier career successes, are too high for them.
The
longer the losing sequence a horse is on the more difficult it
tends to be for its trainer to find a winning opportunity,
especially if a string of placed efforts means that the
handicapper hasn't relinquished his grip. Potential liabilities
are therefore in line with the horse's current losing sequence.
Results
based on 54 bets
Average
potential liability (per bet): 5.31 points
Bets
successfully losing: 48
Profit
+30.51 pts
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System
24: Forgiving A Poor Run
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Rules:
Bet
any horse that failed to finish on its last run, provided that
it won the race before and is priced at less than 10/1 in the
Racing Post betting forecast for today's race.
If
there is more than one qualifier in a race there is no bet for
that race.
System
applies to UK National Hunt races only (not NH flat).
Staking:
5pts to win on each selection.
Logic:
Punters
tend to place too much emphasis on a horse's most recent
performance. As a result, a runner with a valid excuse for
failing on its last run is often under-bet next time out, even
though it may have been showing some decent form previously.
The
price limit attempts to rule out horses that are outclassed in
today's event.
Results
based on 5pt wins (50 bets):
Total
stakes: 250 pts
Total
returns: 277.50 pts
Profit
+27.50 pts
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System
25: Older Two-Year-Olds
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Rules:
In
any race for 2yos where the number of runners with previous
experience is less than the number of places available, bet the
oldest unraced horse each-way.
Eg.
A race with eight runners, of which only two have run before,
would qualify, as would a six-runner affair where only one had
previously run.
Ignore
any race in which there is more than one qualifier.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
each-way on each selection.
Logic:
Unraced
2yos can be a bit of a mystery but the fact is that some are
much more developed than others. Though they all share the same
official birthday (1 January), some of them can actually be
quite a bit older than others. This can prove a big advantage
when unraced 2yos compete against each other.
The
each-way element of the bet respects the fact that the runners
to have seen a racecourse before, regardless of actual age, have
a proven advantage in terms of experience (see System 22).
Results
based on 5pt each-ways (27 bets):
Total
stakes: 270 pts
Total
returns: 333.64 pts
Profit
+63.64 pts
(This
trial ran for only 27 bets due to infrequent qualifiers)
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System
26: Beaten Favourites With Sights Lowered
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Rules:
Bet
any horse that is competing for less prize money than on its
previous run, provided that it was a favourite or
joint-favourite on that previous outing.
Lower
prize money takes into account prize money for the winner only.
Ignore
any race in which there is more than one qualifier.
System
applies to both Flat and NH races.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
to win on each selection.
Logic:
Lower
prize money normally indicates a lower graded or lesser quality
race. If a horse attracted enough support to warrant favouritism
in a better event, then it should have strong claims against
lesser opposition.
This
set of circumstances often indicates a retrieval mission, with
connections attempting to recoup previous losses. An easier task
is often chosen for the horse when this is the case.
Results
based on 5pt wins (203 bets):
Total
stakes: 1015 pts
Total
returns: 1009.11 pts
Loss
5.89 pts
|
|
|
System
27: Trainer/Jockey Combinations
|
Rules:
Bet
any horse which meets these two conditions:
1)
The trainer has had more than 100 runners on the track over the
last five seasons, showing a level stakes profit.
and:
2)
The jockey has had more than 100 rides on the track over the
last five seasons, showing a level stakes profit.
Ignore
any race in which there is more than one qualifier.
System
applies to both Flat and NH races.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
to win on each selection.
Logic:
Contrary
to popular belief, strike rates are fairly meaningless on their
own. A trainer or jockey may have a high strike rate at a
particular track, but if the runners were mainly short-priced
favourites we could say that they were expected to win in any
case.
Another
trainer or jockey may have a low strike rate, but if those
horses consisted largely of rank outsiders then we would not
have expected them to win.
In
other words, for strike rates to be meaningful they need to be
linked to prior expectation, and that expectation is reflected
in the prices of the horses.
Basically,
if a trainer or jockey returns a level stakes profit at a
particular track then their runners have been underestimated in
the market, meaning that they have attracted a bigger price than
their true chance demanded.
However,
we must beware of small samples, which can distort the picture
completely, hence the provision for more than 100 results for
both trainer and jockey individually (not necessarily as a
team), over the last five seasons.
If
both have made level stakes profits at a certain venue with such
large samples of runners, they must be of interest when they
combine in the same race.
Results
based on 5pt wins (150 bets):
Total
stakes: 750 pts
Total
returns: 758.25 pts
Profit
+8.25 pts
|
|
|
System
28: Older Sprinters Hitting Form
|
Rules:
Bet
any horse which meets these five conditions:
1)
It is running over a trip of 6 furlongs or less.
2)
It is aged four years old or more.
3)
It finished in the first three last time out.
4)
Its latest race took place within the last 30 days.
5)
It finished out of the first three on at least three consecutive
occasions immediately prior to its most recent run (e.g. form
figures of 146892 would qualify).
Ignore
any race in which there is more than one qualifier.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
to win on each selection.
Logic:
Of
all the different types of racehorse, perhaps the most prone to
alternating sequences of good and poor performance are older
sprinters. They can be out of form for a considerable time
before suddenly producing one run which sparks a resurgence.
This improved level of performance may continue for a short
while before the sprinter begins another decline. The secret is
to catch these older sprinters just as they hit one of their
purple patches.
Results
based on 5pt wins (101 bets):
Total
stakes: 505 pts
Total
returns: 490.22 pts
Loss
14.78 pts
|
|
|
System
29: Jockey Upgrades
|
Rules:
Bet
any horse which meets these four conditions:
1)
It was a beaten favourite last time on a racecourse.
2)
It was ridden last time out by a jockey who was claiming a
weight allowance.
3)
It is ridden today by a jockey who isn't claiming a weight
allowance.
4)
It isn't stepping up in grade today (by grade I refer to the
class of the race: 1, 2, 3 etc).
If
a horse's last run was in a race which didn't have a
designated class (perhaps because it was run abroad), it will not
qualify as a selection.
If
a horse's last run was under a different code (chase/hurdles/flat) than
today's contest, it will not qualify as a selection.
Ignore
any race in which there is more than one qualifier.
System
applies to both Flat and NH races.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
to win on each selection.
Logic:
The
horse was expected to win last time out, when ridden by one of
the lesser experienced or least successful riders in the race.
That lack of experience and/or proficiency may well have
contributed to its defeat. Today,
in an event of equal or lesser grade, it is ridden by one of the
top riders in the race, who doesn't need a weight allowance to
compensate for any shortcomings in experience or ability.
Results
based on 5pt wins (150 bets):
Total
stakes: 750 pts
Total
returns: 804.66 pts
Profit
+54.66 pts
|
|
|
System
30: Sole Representatives
|
Rules:
1.
Take each each race card in turn and check out the Top Trainers
list, showing performance statistics at the track for the last
five years (for trainers who have runners there today).
2.
Of all the trainers to have shown a level stakes profit at the
track over the last five seasons, identify the one with the most
course winners during that time.
3.
If that trainer has only one representative at the track today,
bet the horse to win.
If
there are two or more profitable trainers with the same number
of course winners, there is no bet on that particular race card.
System
applies to both Flat and NH races.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
to win on each selection.
Logic:
For
betting purposes, there are several ways of defining a
successful trainer. A trainer who sends out plenty of winners
but fails to return a level stakes profit isn't providing any
value. A trainer who returns a level stakes profit from just one
or two winners doesn't provide a convincing long-term record.
However,
a trainer who provides a fair number of winners, together with a
level stakes profit, has established a solid record in terms of
both success and value. If he/she takes the trouble to send just
one representative to the track in question on any given day,
there are grounds for taking interest.
Results
based on 5pt wins (50 bets):
Total
stakes: 250 pts
Total
returns: 141.03 pts
Loss
108.97 pts
|
|
|
System
31: Winning Flat Sires
|
Rules:
1.
Identify the top three Flat sires, in terms of races won by
their progeny during the previous calendar year. For example, if
using the system in 2008, check the Flat Sire stats for races
won during the whole of 2007.
2.
Identify the progeny of those sires running today.
3.
Bet them all to win, unless there is more than one in the same
race, in which case there is no bet for that particular race.
System
applies to UK Flat races only.
The
top three sires, in terms of races won by their progeny in 2007
were: Danehill Dancer, Sadler's Wells and Pivotal. They
therefore provided the qualifying bets for the system trial
which commenced on 16 April 2008.
Staking:
5pts
to win on each selection.
Logic:
Some
sires are responsible for providing many winners whilst a large
percentage produce very few or none. In 2007, a total of 911
sires had progeny running on the Flat in the UK.
During
that year, 25.26% of all Flat race wins (1111 of 4398) were the
responsibility of just 20 (2.2%) of those sires.
Meanwhile,
442 sires (48.52%) failed to provide a single Flat winner during
the year, although it is true to say that many of them had very
few runners.
Three
sires were each responsible for 75 or more Flat race successes
during 2007 (Danehill Dancer 95, Sadler's Wells 87 and Pivotal
75). They represented a mere 0.33% of sires with Flat runners
that year, but they were collectively responsible for 5.84% of
all Flat race wins (257 from 4398). It is worth noting that
individual strike rates for sires are misleading because two or
more progeny often compete against each other in the same race.
When
a horse/rider partnership is familiar with a particular track,
they already know what is required and how it should be
achieved. This applies even more so when the partnership have
already scored over today's course and distance.
These
potent combinations are often underestimated in the betting
markets, going off at bigger prices than they should on many
occasions.
Results
based on 5pt wins (151 bets):
Total
stakes: 755 pts
Total
returns: 835.36 pts
Profit
+80.36 pts
|
|
|
System
32: Course/Distance/Jockey Combinations
|
Rules:
1.
Identify all previous course/distance winners running today
(denoted 'CD' on the Racing Post race cards).
2.
Select only those CD winners that have been partnered to at
least one previous CD success by today's rider.
3.
Bet them all to win, unless there is more than one in the same
race, in which case there is no bet for that particular race.
System
applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).
Staking:
5pts
to win on each selection.
Logic:
When
a horse/rider partnership is familiar with a particular track,
they already know what is required and how it should be
achieved. This applies even more so when the partnership have
already scored over today's course and distance.
These
potent combinations are often underestimated in the betting
markets, going off at bigger prices than they should on many
occasions.
Results
based on 5pt wins (103 bets):
Total
stakes: 515 pts
Total
returns: 451.25 pts
Loss
63.75 pts
|
|
|
System
33: Fully Focused Rides
|
Rules:
1.
Taking each of the day’s meetings in turn, consult the ‘Top
Jockeys’ list on the Racing Post website (under
‘Racing/Cards’).
2.
Check each of the top five jockeys on the list, to see whether
any of them are visiting the track for just one ride that day.
If so, make a note of the horse.
3.
Repeat the process for each of the day’s meetings.
4.
Bet each qualifier to win, provided it isn’t opposed by
another qualifier, in which case there is no bet for that
particular race.
System
applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).
Staking:
5pts
to win on each qualifier.
Logic:
Top
jockeys usually have multiple engagements on a card, which means
they have to make tactical preparations for each in a fairly
short time. When a top jockey has just one engagement at a
particular venue, he/she can concentrate solely on the tactics
for that one ride. They are therefore fully focused on a
particular race and their visit to the track has just one
specific purpose. By using the ‘Top Jockeys’ listing for
each individual track, rather than an overall ‘Top Jockeys’
list, we are ensuring that each bet will be ridden by a jockey
who is proven at that particular venue.
Results
based on 5pt wins (50 bets):
Total
stakes: 250 pts
Total
returns: 154.96 pts
Loss
95.04 pts
|
|
|
System
34: Value Favourites
|
Rules:
1.
Using
the newspaper selections provided at the side of each racecard
on the Racing Post website, note those runners to have attracted
more selections than all the other runners in their race put
together.
2.
Bet to win on those that are priced
at evens or above in the Racing Post betting forecast.
System
applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).
Staking:
5pts
to win on each qualifier.
Logic:
Well-touted
favourites generally offer little in the way of value, but this
method attempts to uncover some of those that might.
Even
money represents a 50% chance of success. A horse that attracts
more than 50% of the total selections, yet is forecast to return
at evens or better has the potential to provide some value.
Further
comment: Under live conditions it would obviously be advisable
to use actual market prices rather than the forecast prices used
for this trial.
Results
based on 5pt wins (57 bets):
Total
stakes: 285 pts
Total
returns: 203.44 pts
Loss
81.56 pts
|
|
|
System
35: Stables Hitting Form
|
Rules:
1.
Using the Postdata section to be found underneath each race on
the Racing Post website, note those runners with more than one
tick in the Trainer Form column, indicating that the yard has
hit top form.
2.
If more than one horse in a race satisfies the above condition,
there is no bet for that race.
System
applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).
Staking:
5pts
to win on each qualifier.
Logic:
Stables hitting top form can
often be the source of spectacular profits within a short period
of time. The fact that a stable’s horses are running so well
means they can sometimes land races they might not otherwise be
expected to win. When that happens, the rewards, in terms of
price, can be quite lucrative.
Results
based on 5pt wins (105 bets):
Total
stakes: 525 pts
Total
returns: 419.86 pts
Loss
105.14 pts
Comment:
The final result of the trial understates the potential of this
method because, during the trail, there were placed horses at
50/1, 33/1, 25/1, 16/1, 14/1, 12/1. and 10/1 (twice), as well as
many others at single-figure prices. Using 5 point win stakes, had
just a couple of the bigger prices won instead of running close
seconds or thirds, the final table would have been transformed (eg
the 50/1 bet, which finished second after being hampered, would
alone have added an extra 255 points to the returns, ensuring a
significant overall profit.
|
|
|
System
36: Weight Reductions On Uphill Tracks
|
Rules:
1.
Concentrate on races with the words ‘handicap’ or 'nursery'
in the title, which are taking place on tracks with a
significant uphill section (see ‘Tracks - Flat’ and
‘Tracks - NH’ in the left-hand menu, using those tracks with
an indicator in the ‘Uphill’ columns).
2.
Bet any horse partnered by a claiming rider provided it has at
least one vote in the ‘Tips’ column of the Racing Post
racecard.
3.
If there is more than one qualifier in any race there will be no
bet for that race.
System
applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).
Staking:
5pts
to win on each qualifier.
Logic:
The
effect of weight is grossly overstated on tight and downhill
tracks, but it does have a more significant effect when a horse
has to run up a hill. A claiming rider effectively lowers
his/her mount's handicap mark, and the fact that the horse has
also attracted support based on its form criteria makes it a
potentially attractive proposition.
Results
based on 5pt wins (52 bets):
Total
stakes: 260 pts
Total
returns: 136.25 pts
Loss
123.75 pts
Comment:
In a similar way to System 35, the final result of the trial
possibly understates the potential of the
method, which looks to have the potential of being useful as a
place-only system. Over 40% of the qualifiers won or placed, with
the placed horses outnumbering the winners by 16 to 5. There were
quite a few decent-priced placed horses including 18/1, 16/1,
14/1, 14/1, 11/1, 10/1 and 9/1 whilst the winners were all shorter
than that. It is logical to assume that the claiming riders,
despite their mounts enjoying a weight advantage, are weaker in a
finish and the results of this trial certainly seem to bear that
out.
|
|
|
System
37: Targeted Races
|
Rules:
1.
Bet any horse whose trainer has won the corresponding race two
or more times in the last ten renewals (going back a maximum of
ten years), provided he/she has just the one runner in today's
race.
2.
If more than one trainer has won a race two or more times in the
last ten renewals, and is represented today, there is no bet for
that race.
System
applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).
Staking:
5pts
to win on each qualifier.
Logic:
Trainers
often target specific races for some of their horses. The fact
that a race has been specifically targeted, rather than a
trainer merely finding a potential opening for a horse that is
ready to run, signifies a greater level of intent.
In
addition, a trainer who has successfully lifted a particular
prize on two or more occasions is more likely to know what will
be required to do so again.
Results
based on 5pt wins (54 bets):
Total
stakes: 270 pts
Total
returns: 186.86 pts
Loss
83.14 pts
Comment:
There were 12
winners at a strike rate of 22.22% but five of them were odds-on,
with the top winning price being 6/1. It is apparent that this
method produces qualifiers that generally go off at too short a
price, probably because trainers who have winning records in
certain races are very often highlighted in the media.
|
|
|
System
38: Front Runners in Small Fields
|
Rules:
1.
Concentrate only on races containing seven runners or less.
2.
In such events, check for horses to have previously made
all the running to win a race in the same code as today's (Flat
or NH). To avoid confusion, the term 'made all' (or 'made
virtually all') in the Racing Post comments-in-running is the key
factor, unless it is otherwise obvious from their commentary
that the horse led from start to finish.
3.
Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.
System
applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).
Staking:
5pts
to win on each qualifier.
Logic:
Races
with only a handful of runners often develop into tactical
affairs with a slow to moderate early pace. In such
cases, the place to be is up at the front and many of these
races are stolen by prominently ridden horses who get
first run on their rivals. When only one of the field has
ever made all before, there is a fair chance of that runner
enjoying the advantage of an uncontested lead.
Results
based on 5pt wins (100 bets):
Total
stakes: 500 pts
Total
returns: 681.74 pts
Profit
+181.74 pts
Comment:
A very satisfactory trial. The strike rate
was 27% and, in addition to the 27 winners, there were 27
runners-up which meant that 54% of the qualifiers finished in the
first two home. The runners-up included a couple of 16/1 shots and
a 20/1, so the overall profit could easily have been much higher.
|
|
|
System
39: Laying All-Weather Handicap Favourites
|
Rules:
1.
Concentrate only on handicap races to be run at either:
Great Leighs, Lingfield, Kempton, Southwell or Wolverhampton.
2.
In such events, check for horses which are clear favourite in
the Racing Post betting forecast.
3.
Then, check each of these in turn to see whether it has ever run
on the track before.
4.
If not, lay the horse as per the staking instructions below.
Staking:
Lay
at the shortest price that can be matched, to a liability of
5pts for each qualifier (for
the purpose of the trial results, the Racing Post betting
forecast price is used).
Eg
1: If the target lay price is 7/4, lay a bet of 2.86 pts at
2.75.
Calculation:
5/(7/4) = 2.86 pts at: (7/4) + 1 = 2.75
Eg
2: If the target lay price is 4/7, lay a bet of 8.77 pts at
1.57.
Calculation:
5/(4/7) = 8.77 pts at: (4/7) + 1 = 1.57.
Both
above examples give a potential liability of 5 points.
Logic:
If
a horse has never run on the all-weather before, there are
obvious concerns regarding its suitability to the surface. Even
if it has previous all-weather experience, but on a different
track to today's, there are still concerns as explained below.
In some instances these concerns can be outweighed by the price
but, in the case of handicap favourites, that is less likely.
Most
backers, although they are aware that Southwell has a Fibresand
surface whilst the others have Polytrack, aren't fully aware of
the big time differences that exist between these tracks.
If
five horses of identical ability set off to run 6f (one at each
of the all-weather venues) at exactly the same time, this is
what would happen:
The
Lingfield horse would beat both the Kempton and Great Leighs
horses by 6 lengths (those two would finish in a dead heat). The
Wolverhampton horse would finish a further 7.5 lengths behind
(that's 13.5 lengths in total behind the Lingfield horse).
The
Southwell horse would finish last, 4 lengths behind the
Wolverhampton horse, 12 lengths behind GL/K and fully 17.5
lengths behind the Lingfield runner.
Those
very significant differences apply to the straightforward sprint
distance of 6f, at which almost all races are run at a true
pace. It is easy, therefore, to see that much bigger differences
can apply at longer trips, especially with many of those races
being run tactically.
To
give a simple example of the effect that a change in tracks can
have, a horse that runs an end-to-end gallop at Lingfield, and
just about gets the trip, would have no chance of winning a
similarly run contest over the same trip at Wolverhampton
because it simply wouldn't stay.
Further
notes:
1.
Even though Kempton and Great Leighs have the same stamina
requirements, they are left in the trial because the former is
right-handed and the latter left-handed and there can often be a
preference in that regard.
2.
Favourites in all-weather handicaps are more likely to be
opposed by runners already proven on the track than is the case
in non-handicaps, hence the use of handicaps for the trial.
Results
based on 50 bets:
Average
potential liability (per bet): 4.69 pts
Bets
successfully losing: 34
Profit
+5.55 pts
Comment:
The system held its own without producing spectacular overall
results. However, 13 of the last 15 lays were successful,
producing a profit of 25.42 pts during that latter sequence and
suggesting that perseverance could well pay dividends in the
longer term.
Perhaps
the most significant trend involved the odds-on favourites. There
were 11 odds-on favourites during the trial and only 4 of them
managed to win, which is well below the expected win rate for
those prices, although that sample is too small to be defining in
any way.
|
|
|
System
40: Powerful Connections
|
Rules:
1.
Obtain the necessary data: The Racing Post site provides a
'statistics' link for each meeting of the day. These
'statistics' links provide performance figures for trainers,
jockeys and owners, in terms of winners over the last five
seasons, at a particular track (where applicable, ensure the
appropriate filter for either Flat or Jumps is selected).
2.
Use each of these 'statistics' links in turn to identify horses
whose connections (trainer, jockey and owner) are all listed
within the first five in their respective categories.
3.
Repeat the procedure for each meeting of the day (UK meetings
only).
4.
Bet to win on each qualifier, provided there is not more than
one in a race, in which case there is no bet for that particular
race.
5.
Should a trainer, jockey or owner appear in the first five
listed, despite recording no track wins, any horse representing
them will not be a qualifier, nor will its presence prevent any
other horse being a qualifier in the same race.
System
applies to all Flat and NH meetings held in the UK.
Staking:
5
pts to win on each qualifier.
Logic:
Trainers,
jockeys and owners who have proven records of success at a
particular track are of obvious interest on an individual basis,
but when the three combine at the venue they represent a
particularly potent force.
Results
based on 5pt wins (101 bets):
Total
stakes: 505 pts
Total
returns: 590.64 pts
Profit
+85.64 pts
(please
see comment below)
Comment:
During the
course of this trial, the data provided on the Racing Post
'statistics' links was changed. For the first 66 bets of the
trial, the data was restricted to the top five per category, based
on winners over the last five years, whether or not they were
involved today. From bet 67 onwards, the 'statistics' links were
amended to show five-year figures for all trainers, jockeys and
owners involved today. The trial continued using this new
data.
In
retrospect, and having discovered that the original data is still
available, I am of the opinion that anyone playing this system
should use the original data, rather than that now provided on the
'statistics' links. The data which was used for the first 66 bets
can now be found by clicking on the individual meeting names (on
the page which summarises today's racing) rather than on the
'statistics' links.
The
profit after 66 bets was 160.86 points.
Using
the original data, this system looks to have strong potential.
|
|
©
2000 - 2009 Professional Betting Advice and Strategy from cdsystems
| |
|
The
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Wednesday
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Tuesday
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Stateside
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+
Sherjawy (nb)
2nd
8/1 Exacta:
£32.00
Wednesday
25 March
Shaded
Edge (nb)
Won
3/1
Saturday
21 March
Scintillo
Won
11/1 to 8/1
Wednesday
18 March
Mafaaz
Won
11/2
Other
recent winners:
Al
Muheer
Won
15/2 to 5/1
Simply
Blue (nb)
Won
4/1
Supsonic
Won
4/1 to 3/1
+
Zaffeu (nb)
2nd 8/1
Exacta:
£22.00
Ravi
River
Won
7/2 to 9/4
Cape
Of Storms
Won
7/1 to 9/2
Spinning
(nb)
Won
Evs
Tous
Les Deux (nb)
Won
9/2
Ingleby
Arch (nb)
Won
9/4
Divertimenti
Won
4/1
Silver
Mist (nb)
Won
9/4
+
Third Set
2nd
7/1 to 11/2
F/c:
£14.81
Punching
Won
3/1
Bluebell
Ridge
Won
9/2
General
Feeling
Won
9/2 to 11/4
+
Nikki Bea (nb)
2nd
7/1
Exacta:
£13.10
Marmooq
(nb)
Won
4/1
Nightjar
Won
11/4 to 2/1
Notre
Pere
Won
16/1
Duff
Won
4/1 to 13/8
Garde
Champetre
Won
7/2 to 7/4
Kilbeggan
Blade (nb)
Won
6/1
L'Homme
De Nuit
Won
6/1 to 4/1
Malko
De B'mont (nb)
Won
7/2
+
Akilak
2nd 4/1 to 10/3
Exacta
£11.90
Shotley
Mac
Won
9/2 to 7/2
+
Bold
Marc (nb)
2nd 15/8
Exacta
£10.70
Lucky
Dance (nb)
Won
33/1
Other
Daily Bargain
winners
include:
Advanced
Won
25/1 to 20/1
Dabbers
Ridge
Won
25/1 to 12/1
Flipando
Won
20/1 to 14/1
Wise
Dennis
Won
20/1 to 14/1
Symbol
Of Peace
Won
16/1
Rustic
Gold
Won
14/1 to 8/1
Staying
On
Won
14/1 to 6/1
Ivory
Lace
Won
12/1
Just
Bond
Won
12/1
Nice
Tune
Won
12/1 to 10/1
Tajneed
Won
12/1 to 17/2
Blythe
Knight
Won
11/1 to 9/1
Inside
Story
Won
10/1 to 8/1
Golden
Oak
Won
10/1 to 7/1
Lucarno
Won
9/1 to 6/1
Dium
Mac
Won
8/1
Plum
Pudding
Won
8/1
Ingleby
Princess
Won
8/1 to 13/2
Heathyards
Pride
Won
8/1 to 13/2
Hypnosis
Won
8/1 to 6/1
Collateral
Damage
Won
8/1 to 9/2
Galactic
Star
Won
15/2 to 6/1
Juniper
Girl
Won
15/2 to 5/1
The
Very Man
Won
7/1
Shela
House
Won
7/1
Pennyspider
Won
13/2 to 6/1
Texas
Gold
Won
13/2 to 5/1
Snow's
Ride
Won
6/1
Reeling
N' Rocking
Won
6/1 to 5/1
Eva
Soneva So Fast
Won
6/1 to 9/2
Swift
Princess
Won
6/1 to 3/1
Alessano
Won
11/2
Hula
Ballew
Won
11/2
Tcherina
Won
11/2
Press
The Button
Won
11/2 to 9/2
Ofarel
D'Airy
Won
11/2 to 7/2
Cool
Ebony
Won
11/2 to 3/1
Toy
Top
Won
5/1
Parish
Oak
Won
5/1
Turner's
Touch
Won
5/1
Smart
Enough
Won
5/1 to 9/2
Wind
Flow
Won
5/1 to 4/1
Rabbit
Fighter
Won
9/2
Beaver
Patrol
Won
9/2
Spanish
Hidalgo
Won
9/2
The
Fisio
Won
9/2
Bomber
Command
Won
9/2
High
Treason
Won
9/2
One
Way Ticket
Won 9/2
Pegasus
Dancer
Won
9/2
Halsion
Chancer
Won
9/2 to 7/2
Reeling
n' Rocking
Won
9/2 to 7/2
St
Savarin
Won
9/2 to 7/2
My
Friend Fritz
Won
9/2 to 3/1
Killena
Boy
Won
9/2 to 5/2
Evens
And Odds
Won
4/1
Atlantic
Gamble
Won
4/1
Magical
Music
Won
4/1
Pop
Music
Won
4/1 to 7/2
Sweet
Indulgence
Won
4/1 to 3/1
Suzi
Spends
Won
4/1 to 11/4
Sadler's
Kingdom
Won
4/1 to 11/4
Raffish
Won
4/1 to 11/4
Goodbye
Mr Bond
Won
4/1 to 11/4
Luckylover
Won
4/1 to 11/4
King
Of Dixie
Won
4/1 to 9/4
Players
Please
Won
7/2
The
Bandit
Won
7/2
Moorhouse
Lad
Won
7/2
Smart
Ass
Won
7/2
Royal
Dignitary
Won
7/2
Macorville
Won
7/2
South
O'the Border
Won
7/2
Valley
Of The Moon
Won
7/2 to 3/1
Eradicate
Won
7/2 to 5/2
King
Harald
Won
7/2 to 5/2
Bubble
Boy
Won
10/3 to 11/4
King's
Ransom
Won
10/3 to 2/1
Al
Gillani
Won
10/3 to 15/8
Hoh
Wotanite
Won
3/1
Maltese
Falcon
Won
3/1

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