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ProLays
By Steve Jones
Introduction to ProLays
I
have conducted plenty of detailed research over the years geared to the
recognition of vulnerable favourites. This research, combined with
chance quantification techniques and staking optimisation, goes to
make up this complete professional laying package.
Many
laying services are unnecessarily complex. This one is essentially
straightforward to understand and operate, whilst providing a highly
effective long-term performance.
Main features of
ProLays:
* A complete professional
laying
package.
*
Available by monthly subscription with discounts for longer terms.
*
One lay bet per day, seven days a week.
*
Advices available by private email the evening before racing.
*
Simple staking method is ideal for those with no time to
track the market.
*
Price advice given with each bet.
*
Advised starting bank: 25 points.
*
Liability per bet: 3 points.
*
Staking structure designed so that all members will match the official
results table.
Quick-Start
Guide to Laying Professionally with ProLays
The
ProLays service is available by private email only.
1. Set aside a betting bank for your
investment before you start. The value of this initial
investment is entirely up to you. My job is to manage the growth of the investment
by providing you with the right lays to make.
2. Divide your opening balance by 25
to obtain the value of 1 point. For example, if your initial
investment is £500, the value of 1 point would be £20.
3. Register for the ProLays service
using the simple payment process below. Your
ProLays service will automatically
commence with the next available bet (please
subscribe before 19.00 GMT to be sure of commencing your service with
the following day's bet).
4. You will receive one lay
advice per day, seven days a week. Advices are always sent the evening
before racing. Should an advised lay be subsequently declared a
non-runner, there will be no bet for that day.
5.
On Receiving a ProLays Advice
a).
Log in to your Betfair account and navigate to the race
concerned.
b).
Check for non-runners by clicking the Rules tab on the
right of the screen.
If
any non-runners are listed, refer immediately to the Non-Runner
Adjustments below. If no non-runners are listed, proceed
with step c) below.
c).
Ensure both the Back & Lay and Betfair
Starting Price boxes are ticked (these are
situated just above the list of runners).
d).
Click on the pink
SP box adjacent to the horse named in the
ProLays advice.
e).
Tick the Set SP odds limit box (this is
situated on the right of the screen).
f).
Using the Set Your Max Odds control, select
the maximum price which has been advised in your email.
g).
In the Your Liability box, enter the value
which is equal to 3 points (ie 12% of your starting
bank of 25 points).
h).
Click the Place Bets button.
i).
Click the Confirm button.
6.
Non-Runner Adjustments
Your
daily advice will include any non-runners that have
already been taken into account.
Please
check, before placing your bet, whether there
have been any subsequent non-runners listed by Betfair.
If there are, you will find them listed on the Rules
tab in the right-hand section of the Betfair screen.
Provided
there are no non-runners are unaccounted for, place the bet
exactly as advised and ignore the rest of this section.
Any subsequent non-runners (after bet
placement) will have the effect of reducing both your maximum
lay price and your liability.
Betfair will control that function automatically.
If
there are any non-runners I haven't taken into
account on the advice, you will need to reduce
both the maximum lay price and the liability
yourself before placing your bet. This applies only to
non-runners with a reduction factor of 2.5% or more.
a).
Reducing maximum lay price due to a non-runner
Formula:
New maximum lay price =
Advised
max lay price - reduction factor % of non-runner.
b).
Reducing liability due to a non-runner
Formula:
New liability (in points) =
Old minimum profit figure in points x (new maximum lay price
- 1).
Worked
example including both calculations
Here
is a fully-worked example showing what to do should a non-runner be
declared after your daily advice is issued but before
you place your lay bet.
Example:
An
advice is issued to lay Horse A to a maximum price of 4.60
The
liability is 3 points as normal.
Before
you are able to place your bet, a non-runner is declared with
a reduction factor of 50%.
Step
1: Calculate the new maximum lay price as follows:
Advised
max lay price - reduction factor % of non-runner =
new max lay price:
4.60
- 50% = 2.30.
The
new maximum lay price is therefore 2.30.
Step
2: Calculate the new liability as follows:
First
calculate the old minimum profit figure:
Liability in
points/(advised max lay price - 1) = old minimum
profit in points:
3/(4.60
- 1) = 3/3.60 = 0.83 points.
Old
minimum profit = 0.83 points.
Now
enter this figure into the calculation for new liability as
follows:
Old
minimum profit in points x (new max lay price - 1):
0.83
x (2.30 - 1) = 0.83 x 1.30 = 1.08 points.
The
new liability is therefore 1.08 points.
You
would therefore enter the following in the Betfair boxes when
placing your amended bet:
Set
Your Max Odds: 2.30.
Your
Liability: Value of 1.08 points.
Please
note:
1.
You need only make adjustments for non-runners I
haven't accounted for on the daily advice.
2.
Should there be more than one unaccounted non-runner,
apply their reduction factor percentages one at a time in
chronological order (times of withdrawal are given by Betfair
on the
Rules
tab). Ignore any non-runners with a reduction factor of less than
2.5%.
7. Main
Effects of the ProLays Strategy
a).
You don't need to track market prices in order to obtain the
full benefits of ProLays and you can place the bets at any
time that suits you.
b).
You are instantly protected against laying a horse at a price
deemed too generous to represent true chance. If Betfair SP is bigger than the maximum odds you have set, your
stake will be returned and no
losses will be incurred should the horse win.
8.
Useful Formulae
Calculation
of Minimum Profit:
Minimum
Profit = Liability (ie value of 3 points)/(maximum lay price -1).
Less
your Betfair commission.
Example:
Your starting bank of 25 points had an initial value
of £1,000 (1 point = £40) and you receive an advice to
lay a horse at a maximum price of 3.50.
Minimum
Profit = 120/(3.50-1)
= £48.
Less
your Betfair commission.
Calculation
of Actual Profit:
Actual
profit can only be calculated once Betfair SP is finalised.
Actual
Profit = Liability/(Betfair SP-1)
Less
your Betfair commission.
9. It is always better to have an
unmatched bet than to lay a price which is greater than perceived true
chance.
10. Re-investment policy: Rule off
your investment after 100 matched bets and divide the closing balance by 25 to
obtain the new value of 1 point. Use the new value of 1 point as the
basis for your level staking (liability 3 points per bet) for
the next 100 matched bets, and so on. Repeat after every 100 matched
bets.
11.
As soon as your investment doubles, take out your original capital and
start the investment again, using the accrued profit as your new
capital. From that point on, you will not need to bet with your own
money for the remainder of the investment. The re-investment policy (above) will take care of future growth.
Subscribe
to ProLays
Your
private email service will automatically commence on the first
available betting day. If you wish it to commence on a later date
please request this here.
The
email address you use for payment will be the one to which all your
private emails are sent. If you wish to use a different email address
for the private service, or if you wish to register a second address
for added security, please request this here.
If
your payment is for an extension to a current subscription, the new
period purchased will automatically follow on from the current period.
Confirmation
of your subscription details will be sent to you by email before your
new service commences.
Credit
and Debit Card Payments
| 1
month
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£30.00
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| 2
months
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£57.00
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equal
to £28.50/month
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| 3
months
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£81.24
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equal
to £27.08/month
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months
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£102.88
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equal
to £25.72/month
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| 5
months
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equal
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months
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equal
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months
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equal
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months
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equal
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months
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£179.10
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equal
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months
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| 11
months
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£197.56
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equal
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| 12
months
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£204.72
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equal
to £17.06/month
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Privacy
Policy: Under no circumstances will email addresses ever be
disclosed to third parties.
A
Brief Introduction to Betting as an Investment
In the current economic climate there are
increasingly more reasons why betting, when conducted professionally,
can provide a very attractive alternative to traditional forms of
financial investment.
Basic investment philosophy
The setting up of a betting bank is crucial to
the success of your investment. That bank is your investment,
just as it would be if you had a portfolio of stocks and shares, and
my job is to manage it and make it grow. Your investment is geared to
the buying of racehorses' chances rather than gold or copper but it
works in the same way.
My operation is geared to progressive growth
rather than short-term jackpot-hunting. If, at the end of an
investment period, the growth of your investment is greater than you
could have achieved with a financial package from a high-street bank,
building society or financial services outlet, then the exercise will
have been worthwhile. Historical performance has shown that far
greater rewards than these traditional methods are possible on a
consistent basis.
Trading in the chances of racehorses can produce
exciting results when handled correctly, as can be seen from the fact
that I managed a betting fund which provided a growth of 1,183% over a
seven year period.
The main emphasis of my risk management strategy
is to safeguard your investment. I will not allow it to be exposed to
any greater risk than is necessary. The potential effect of negative
sequences is carefully calculated and prepared for. With
this essential safeguard in place, staking is optimised to ensure the maximisation
of profits.
Here are a few excerpts from the training manual of
one of the world's top fund management companies, clearly showing
how the principles of traditional investment strategy can be
successfully applied to betting:
"...if the risks are either too high or
too low, then bet sizes and/or bankroll can be adjusted to produce the
desired amount of risk."
"...profits
and losses do not likely alternate with smooth regularity; they
appear, typically, as winning and losing streaks. When the entire
investor-manager team realizes this as natural, it is more likely to
stay the course during drawdowns, and also to stay appropriately
modest during winning streaks."
"...in actual practice, the most important
psychological consideration is ability to stick to the system. To
achieve this, it is important (1) to fully understand the system
rules, (2) to know how the system behaves and (3) to have clear and
supportive agreements between all parties that support sticking to the
system."
By
correctly following the simple rules of my investment plan you will
give yourself every opportunity to reap the rewards it can provide.
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