ProLays

By Steve Jones

Introduction to ProLays

I have conducted plenty of detailed research over the years geared to the recognition of vulnerable favourites. This research, combined with chance quantification techniques and staking optimisation, goes to make up this complete professional laying package.

Many laying services are unnecessarily complex. This one is essentially straightforward to understand and operate, whilst providing a highly effective long-term performance.

Main features of ProLays:

* A complete professional laying package.

* Available by monthly subscription with discounts for longer terms.

* One lay bet per day, seven days a week.

* Advices available by private email the evening before racing.

* Simple staking method is ideal for those with no time to track the market.

* Price advice given with each bet.

* Advised starting bank: 25 points.

* Liability per bet: 3 points.

* Staking structure designed so that all members will match the official results table.

Quick-Start Guide to Laying Professionally with ProLays

The ProLays service is available by private email only.

1. Set aside a betting bank for your investment before you start. The value of this initial investment is entirely up to you. My job is to manage the growth of the investment by providing you with the right lays to make.

2. Divide your opening balance by 25 to obtain the value of 1 point. For example, if your initial investment is £500, the value of 1 point would be £20.

3. Register for the ProLays service using the simple payment process below. Your ProLays service will automatically commence with the next available bet (please subscribe before 19.00 GMT to be sure of commencing your service with the following day's bet).

4. You will receive one lay advice per day, seven days a week. Advices are always sent the evening before racing. Should an advised lay be subsequently declared a non-runner, there will be no bet for that day.

5. On Receiving a ProLays Advice

a). Log in to your Betfair account and navigate to the race concerned.

b). Check for non-runners by clicking the Rules tab on the right of the screen.

If any non-runners are listed, refer immediately to the Non-Runner Adjustments below. If no non-runners are listed, proceed with step c) below.

c). Ensure both the Back & Lay and Betfair Starting Price boxes are ticked (these are situated just above the list of runners).

d). Click on the pink SP box adjacent to the horse named in the ProLays advice.

e). Tick the Set SP odds limit box (this is situated on the right of the screen).

f). Using the Set Your Max Odds control, select the maximum price which has been advised in your email.

g). In the Your Liability box, enter the value which is equal to 3 points (ie 12% of your starting bank of 25 points).

h). Click the Place Bets button.

i). Click the Confirm button.

6. Non-Runner Adjustments

Your daily advice will include any non-runners that have already been taken into account.

Please check, before placing your bet, whether there have been any subsequent non-runners listed by Betfair. If there are, you will find them listed on the Rules tab in the right-hand section of the Betfair screen.

Provided there are no non-runners are unaccounted for, place the bet exactly as advised and ignore the rest of this section.

Any subsequent non-runners (after bet placement) will have the effect of reducing both your maximum lay price and your liability. Betfair will control that function automatically.

If there are any non-runners I haven't taken into account on the advice, you will need to reduce both the maximum lay price and the liability yourself before placing your bet. This applies only to non-runners with a reduction factor of 2.5% or more.

a). Reducing maximum lay price due to a non-runner

Formula: New maximum lay price =

Advised max lay price - reduction factor % of non-runner.

b). Reducing liability due to a non-runner

Formula: New liability (in points) =

Old minimum profit figure in points x (new maximum lay price - 1).

Worked example including both calculations

Here is a fully-worked example showing what to do should a non-runner be declared after your daily advice is issued but before you place your lay bet.

Example:

An advice is issued to lay Horse A to a maximum price of 4.60

The liability is 3 points as normal.

Before you are able to place your bet, a non-runner is declared with a reduction factor of 50%.

Step 1: Calculate the new maximum lay price as follows:

Advised max lay price - reduction factor % of non-runner = new max lay price:

4.60 - 50% = 2.30.

The new maximum lay price is therefore 2.30.

Step 2: Calculate the new liability as follows:

First calculate the old minimum profit figure:

Liability in points/(advised max lay price - 1) = old minimum profit in points:

3/(4.60 - 1) = 3/3.60 = 0.83 points.

Old minimum profit = 0.83 points.

Now enter this figure into the calculation for new liability as follows:

Old minimum profit in points x (new max lay price - 1):

0.83 x (2.30 - 1) = 0.83 x 1.30 = 1.08 points.

The new liability is therefore 1.08 points.

You would therefore enter the following in the Betfair boxes when placing your amended bet:

Set Your Max Odds: 2.30.

Your Liability: Value of 1.08 points.

Please note:

1. You need only make adjustments for non-runners I haven't accounted for on the daily advice.

2. Should there be more than one unaccounted non-runner, apply their reduction factor percentages one at a time in chronological order (times of withdrawal are given by Betfair on the Rules tab). Ignore any non-runners with a reduction factor of less than 2.5%.

7. Main Effects of the ProLays Strategy

a). You don't need to track market prices in order to obtain the full benefits of ProLays and you can place the bets at any time that suits you.

b). You are instantly protected against laying a horse at a price deemed too generous to represent true chance. If Betfair SP is bigger than the maximum odds you have set, your stake will be returned and no losses will be incurred should the horse win.

8. Useful Formulae

Calculation of Minimum Profit:

Minimum Profit = Liability (ie value of 3 points)/(maximum lay price -1).

Less your Betfair commission.

Example:

Your starting bank of 25 points had an initial value of £1,000 (1 point = £40) and you receive an advice to lay a horse at a maximum price of 3.50.

Minimum Profit = 120/(3.50-1) = £48.

Less your Betfair commission.

Calculation of Actual Profit:

Actual profit can only be calculated once Betfair SP is finalised.

Actual Profit = Liability/(Betfair SP-1)

Less your Betfair commission.

9. It is always better to have an unmatched bet than to lay a price which is greater than perceived true chance.

10. Re-investment policy: Rule off your investment after 100 matched bets and divide the closing balance by 25 to obtain the new value of 1 point. Use the new value of 1 point as the basis for your level staking (liability 3 points per bet) for the next 100 matched bets, and so on. Repeat after every 100 matched bets.

11. As soon as your investment doubles, take out your original capital and start the investment again, using the accrued profit as your new capital. From that point on, you will not need to bet with your own money for the remainder of the investment. The re-investment policy (above) will take care of future growth.

Subscribe to ProLays

Your private email service will automatically commence on the first available betting day. If you wish it to commence on a later date please request this here.

The email address you use for payment will be the one to which all your private emails are sent. If you wish to use a different email address for the private service, or if you wish to register a second address for added security, please request this here.

If your payment is for an extension to a current subscription, the new period purchased will automatically follow on from the current period.

Confirmation of your subscription details will be sent to you by email before your new service commences.

Credit and Debit Card Payments

Privacy Policy: Under no circumstances will email addresses ever be disclosed to third parties.

A Brief Introduction to Betting as an Investment

In the current economic climate there are increasingly more reasons why betting, when conducted professionally, can provide a very attractive alternative to traditional forms of financial investment.

Basic investment philosophy

The setting up of a betting bank is crucial to the success of your investment. That bank is your investment, just as it would be if you had a portfolio of stocks and shares, and my job is to manage it and make it grow. Your investment is geared to the buying of racehorses' chances rather than gold or copper but it works in the same way.

My operation is geared to progressive growth rather than short-term jackpot-hunting. If, at the end of an investment period, the growth of your investment is greater than you could have achieved with a financial package from a high-street bank, building society or financial services outlet, then the exercise will have been worthwhile. Historical performance has shown that far greater rewards than these traditional methods are possible on a consistent basis.

Trading in the chances of racehorses can produce exciting results when handled correctly, as can be seen from the fact that I managed a betting fund which provided a growth of 1,183% over a seven year period.

The main emphasis of my risk management strategy is to safeguard your investment. I will not allow it to be exposed to any greater risk than is necessary. The potential effect of negative sequences is carefully calculated and prepared for. With this essential safeguard in place, staking is optimised to ensure the maximisation of profits.

Here are a few excerpts from the training manual of one of the world's top fund management companies, clearly showing how the principles of traditional investment strategy can be successfully applied to betting:

"...if the risks are either too high or too low, then bet sizes and/or bankroll can be adjusted to produce the desired amount of risk."

"...profits and losses do not likely alternate with smooth regularity; they appear, typically, as winning and losing streaks. When the entire investor-manager team realizes this as natural, it is more likely to stay the course during drawdowns, and also to stay appropriately modest during winning streaks."

"...in actual practice, the most important psychological consideration is ability to stick to the system. To achieve this, it is important (1) to fully understand the system rules, (2) to know how the system behaves and (3) to have clear and supportive agreements between all parties that support sticking to the system."

By correctly following the simple rules of my investment plan you will give yourself every opportunity to reap the rewards it can provide.