System 31

On this page I perform live tests on various horse racing systems and methods. Each system is normally trialled for 50 bets in order to evaluate its performance, potential and usefulness.

A wide variety of tactics are incorporated into the systems, some of which you may wish to apply to your own personal betting strategy.

50 bets is obviously not a totally convincing sample but it enables me to trial more systems and methods during the year. On occasions, however, when a system is performing well after the standard 50 bets, the trial may be extended to 100 bets or more.

System Trial 31: Winning Flat Sires

Rules:

1. Identify the top three Flat sires, in terms of races won by their progeny during the previous calendar year. For example, if using the system in 2008, check the Flat Sire stats for races won during the whole of 2007.

2. Identify the progeny of those sires running today.

3. Bet them all to win, unless there is more than one in the same race, in which case there is no bet for that particular race.

System applies to UK Flat races only.

The top three sires, in terms of races won by their progeny in 2007 were: Danehill Dancer, Sadler's Wells and Pivotal. They therefore provide the qualifying bets for the system trial which commenced on 16 April 2008.

Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

Logic:

Some sires are responsible for providing many winners whilst a large percentage produce very few or none. In 2007, a total of 911 sires had progeny running on the Flat in the UK.

During that year, 25.26% of all Flat race wins (1111 of 4398) were the responsibility of just 20 (2.2%) of those sires.

Meanwhile, 442 sires (48.52%) failed to provide a single Flat winner during the year, although it is true to say that many of them had very few runners.

Three sires were each responsible for 75 or more Flat race successes during 2007 (Danehill Dancer 95, Sadler's Wells 87 and Pivotal 75). They represented a mere 0.33% of sires with Flat runners that year, but they were collectively responsible for 5.84% of all Flat race wins (257 from 4398). It is worth noting that individual strike rates for sires are misleading because two or more progeny often compete against each other in the same race.

System Trial 31 Qualifiers: Tuesday 13 May 2008

No qualifiers for Tuesday

Wednesday qualifiers will appear here before 23.00 BST Tue

Following the overall performance of the first 50 qualifying bets, the trial is extended to 100 bets.

Anyone who wishes to continue monitoring the old systems will find full instructions on the Systems Archive page.