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How To Spot A Vulnerable Favourite

 

 

Below is a table listing all the favourites that ran during one

particular week.

 

I analysed the favourites based on their current form, and that

of their connections. We can clearly see that the favourites that

won their races had far fewer question marks against them than

those that lost.

 

Please note that the object of this exercise is to highlight the

negative characteristics of the favourites. In that respect, I have

inserted 'OK' if there are no negatives, regardless of how positive

the results of my analysis may have been.

 

Please also note that Race Types in blue are races where most

of the runners are making their racecourse debut.

 

Criteria required for 'OK':

 

Horse/Class: Must have shown the ability or obvious potential to

seriously compete in the class of today's race.

Horse/Track: Must have proven ability on either today's track or

one with similar characteristics.

Horse/Recent: Analysis of general form over the last few weeks.

Horse/Dist: Must have shown the ability or obvious potential to

run competitively over today's distance.

Horse/Draw: Highlight any obvious disadvantage if applicable.

Horse/Going: Must have shown an obvious ability to handle

today's ground.

Trainer/Track: Trainer must have at least a 10% strike rate on

today's track.

Trainer/Recent: Trainer must have had at least two placed or

one winning horse in the last 14 days.

Jockey/Track: Jockey must have at least a 10% strike rate on

today's track.

 

Performance of all favourites 19-23 March 2001

 Race

Res

Horse

Trainer

Jock

Date

Track Type Favourite

Pos

Price

Class Track

Rec

Dist Draw Going Track Rec Track
19/3 Ling 2.25

7f

Hcp E

Anstand

2nd

7/4

OK Poor OK OK OK Poor Poor OK OK
19/3 Ling 2.55

6f

Clm F

Charge

1st

4/7

OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK
19/3 Ling 3.25

7f

Mdn E

Conspire

2nd

1/5

OK No exp

Not rn 6 mth

No exp OK No exp OK OK OK
19/3 Ling 4.25

1m 2f

Sell G

Night City

1st

9/4J

OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK Poor
19/3 Ling 4.25

1m 2f

Sell G

Barbason

7th

9/4J

OK OK Poor OK OK OK OK OK Poor
19/3 Ling 4.55

1m 5f

Hcp F

Gandon

7th

2/1

Not sure No exp OK

No exp

OK No exp OK OK Poor
19/3 Sout 2.10

1m

Hcp F

Jessinca

2nd

11/4

OK OK OK OK OK OK Poor Poor OK
19/3 Sout 2.40

7f

Clm F

Ron's Pet

1st

11/8

OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK
19/3 Sout 3.10

1m

Mdn D

Greenhope

2nd

6/4

Not sure No exp Not rn 5 mth Poor OK No exp Poor OK OK
19/3 Sout 3.40

1m 4f

Hcp C

Night Sight

1st

11/2

OK OK OK OK OK OK Poor OK Poor
19/3 Sout 4.10

5f

Sell G

Blue Eyes

1st

11/8

OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK
19/3 Sout 4.40

6f

Hcp E

Rude Awakening

4th

9/4

OK OK OK OK OK OK Poor OK Poor
19/3 Sout 5.10

6f

Hcp E

Westfield Star

2nd

2/1

OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK
20/3 Font 2.30

2m 2f

MdHdF

De Tramuntana

1st

Evs

OK OK OK OK OK OK OK Not sure OK
20/3 Font 3.00

2m 2f

HcHl E

Zapateado

4th

11/2

OK Not sure OK Not sure OK OK OK OK OK
20/3 Font 3.30

2m 2f

M Ch F

Moving Earth

1st

13/8

OK OK Not rn 5 mth Not sure OK OK OK OK OK
20/3 Font 4.00

2m 2f

NvHl D

Maximus

8th

5/4

OK OK OK Not sure OK OK OK OK Poor
20/3 Font 4.30

3m 4f

HcChD

Around The Gale

4th

9/2J

OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK
20/3 Font 4.30

3m 4f

HcChD

Folly Road

PU

9/2

OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK
20/3 Font 5.00

2m6.5f

HcHl F

Intox III

PU

11/4

OK OK Poor Poor OK OK OK OK OK
20/3 Font 5.30

2m 2f

NvHl D

Phar From A Fiddle

2nd

11/4

Not sure OK Not sure Not sure OK OK OK Poor OK
20/3 War 2.15

2m

HcChF

Little Worsall

7th

7/2

OK OK Jump bad OK OK OK No exp OK OK
20/3 War 2.45

2m 4f

NvChE

Cadougold

1st

Evs

OK OK Not sure OK OK OK OK OK OK
20/3 War 3.15

2m 4f

HcChD

Grey Abbey

2nd

7/2

OK OK OK OK OK OK No exp Not sure OK
20/3 War 3.45

3m

NvChC

Jolly Green Giant

1st

1/4

OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK
20/3 War 4.15

2m 5f

HcChB

Spring Grove

3rd

11/8

Not sure Not sure OK OK OK OK OK OK OK
20/3 War 4.45

3m 2f

HcChF

Phoenix Phlyer

4th

5/1J

Not sure OK OK Not sure OK Not sure Poor OK OK
20/3 War 4.45

3m 2f

HcChF

Sireric

PU

5/1J

OK Not sure OK OK OK OK No exp Not sure Not sure
21/3 Sout 1.45

1m

Hcp F

Calling The Shots

1st

5/2

OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK
21/3 Sout 2.15

6f

Mdn E

That's Jazz

4th

6/4

OK Not sure OK OK Poor OK OK OK OK
21/3 Sout 2.45

1m 4f

Clm F

China Castle

1st

4/9

OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK Poor
21/3 Sout 3.15

2m

Hcp E

Kent

2nd

7/4

OK OK OK OK OK OK OK Not sure OK
21/3 Sout 3.45

1m

Hcp F

Madame Jones

1st

11/4

OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK Poor
21/3 Sout 4.15

7f

Stk E

Stormy Voyage

4th

13/8

OK Poor OK OK OK Not sure OK OK Not sure
21/3 Sout 4.45

5f

Hcp F

Tempus Fugit

8th

7/2

OK Not sure Not sure OK OK Not sure OK OK Poor
21/3 Sout 5.15

5f

Hcp F

Off Hire

3rd

4/1

OK Poor OK OK OK OK Poor Poor Not sure
22/3 Don 1.30

1m 4f

Hcp F

Robandella

10th

8/1

OK Not sure OK OK OK Not sure OK Poor Poor
22/3 Don 2.05

5f

CondC

Double Play

2nd

6/1

Not sure Not sure Never run Not sure OK Not sure OK Not sure Poor
22/3 Don 2.35

1m2.5f

Hcp D

Compton Commander

2nd

3/1

Not sure Not sure OK OK OK OK Poor OK Poor
22/3 Don 3.10

5f

Hcp B

Smokin Beau

7th

5/1

Not sure OK OK OK OK Not sure Not sure OK Poor
22/3 Don 3.40

1m

Lstd A

Albarahin

2nd

4/5

OK OK Not rn 5 mth OK OK OK Poor Not sure Poor
22/3 Don 4.10

1m

Mdn D

Gryffindor

1st

3/1J

OK OK Not rn 8 mth OK OK Not sure Poor Not sure Poor
22/3 Don 4.10

1m

Mdn D

Haasil

2nd

3/1J

OK OK Not rn 5 mth OK OK Not sure OK Not sure Poor
22/3 Don 4.40

1m2.5f

Hcp E

Final Dividend

13th

5/1

OK Not sure OK OK OK Not sure Poor OK Not sure
22/3 Wolv 2.15

6f

Hcp F

Cedar Czar

6th

9/4

OK Not sure Not sure OK OK OK OK OK OK
22/3 Wolv 2.45

1m

Stk F

Sea Ya Maite

1st

2/1

OK OK OK OK OK OK Poor OK OK
22/3 Wolv 3.20

1m 4f

Mdn D

Serge Lifar

2nd

2/9

OK No exp Not rn 5 mth Not sure OK No exp OK Not sure Poor
22/3 Wolv 3.50

1m 1f

Hcp E

Groundsfordivorce

5th

2/1

Not sure OK OK OK OK OK No exp OK OK
22/3 Wolv 4.20

1m 4f

Sell G

Welsh Ploy

3rd

11/4

OK Poor OK OK OK OK Poor OK OK
22/3 Wolv 4.50

7f

Hcp E

Guest Envoy

2nd

11/4

OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK Poor
23/3 Don 1.30

5f

Sell F

Villa Del Sol

2nd

7/4

Not sure Not sure Never run Not sure OK Not sure Poor OK OK
23/3 Don 2.05

1m2.5f

Mdn D

Mr Combustible

2nd

Evs

OK Not sure

Not rn 6 mth

OK OK OK OK OK OK
23/3 Don 2.35

2m 2f

Hcp C

Deano's Beano

3rd

11/8

Not sure OK No flat 4yr Not sure OK OK OK OK Poor
23/3 Don 3.10

1m

Hcp B

Lucky Gitano

20th

7/2

No OK Not rn 4 mth OK OK OK OK OK OK
23/3 Don 3.40

6f

Hcp C

Abbajabba

5th

4/1

OK OK Not rn 6 mth OK OK OK Poor OK Poor
23/3 Don 4.10

7f

Mdn D

Amicable

1st

8/11

OK OK Not rn 6 mth