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Many of the the texts are as valid today as they were then.

Newsletter: Thursday 27 August 2009
For private members/free members

Price Finder 2

A new and improved version of Price Finder, the powerful betting tool designed and constructed by Steve Jones.

Current Price Finder users please note: Anyone who has already purchased the original Price Finder will automatically receive a free copy of Price Finder 2 before the end of August.

Since its launch earlier this month, the original Price Finder has proved very popular in highlighting the best bets to make in any market. A live demonstration of its capabilities has been seen via the ongoing System 42 trial. This, however, is just a very small reflection of its full capabilities.

Following further work on the project, Price Finder 2 has just been developed. The main improvements to be found in the new version are:

1. The conversion of betting forecasts into ratings has proved to be a popular use (as in System 42). Price Finder 2 has the capability to instantly convert a full betting forecast into ratings, without the need for individual price conversions via the Tool Box.
2. Not only that, but the new version includes an extra worksheet on which multiple betting forecasts for different events can be converted into ratings and analysed at the same time, without the need to delete data before re-use.
3. Also included in the new version is a second additional worksheet on which multiple events can be simultaneously worked upon using users' chosen ratings.

All you need, in order to locate the best bet to make in any race, sporting event or reality market is:
1. Any data that compares the c ontenders to your satisfaction (a trusted betting forecast, set of ratings or any other numerical data you choose).
2. Price Finder 2.
3. Market prices.

Within minutes you will be able to clearly see the best bet/s to make.

How Price Finder 2 works

Price Finder 2 has an inbuilt set of formulae which compares the chances of each contender, based on the ratings or betting forecast prices you decide to feed it, against each contender's chance as reflected by a live market.

A popular choice is the use of betting forecast prices to reflect chance. Price Finder 2 will instantly convert a full betting forecast into a set of ratings. The betting forecast you use doesn't need to be rounded to 100%. The formulae built into Price Finder 2 will take care of everything for you.
Based on the betting forecast data it is fed, Price Finder 2 will instantly calculate, for each contender in any market:
1. True chance percentages for each contender.

2. Minimum prices to accept for each contender.
3. And most importantly: Value indicators for each contender. Any indicator over 100% suggests value, the highest figure being the best bet at the prices offered.

Your own ratings, should you choose to use them, don't need to add up to any particular number. They can be marks out of 10 (or any other number for that matter), they can be based on newspaper ratings, any other ratings, or they can be any figures or data you deem to be relevant in comparing contenders.

Price Finder 2 will highlight the best bets to make in any race, sporting event, reality event etc. You just need to provide it with appropriate 'true chance' data, which it compares with the market's reflection of chance. The more accurate your 'true chance' data, the more effective Price Finder 2 will be.

Added extras:

Included with the Price Finder as an added extra is a Tool Box of instant conversion tools which will come in ha ndy for everyday use.
Instantly convert:
1. Traditional prices to percentage chances
2. Decimal prices to percentage chances
3. Traditional prices to decimal prices
4. Decimal prices to traditional prices
5. Percentage chances to decimal prices
6. Percentage chances to traditional prices

All this comes in a single Microsoft Excel workbook and is available for a one-off price of £9.99.
Free email support is provided if required.

For more information or to order your copy, please click here

All the best with your betting.

Steve Jones
Professional Betting Advice & Strategy

Newsletter: Thursday 7 May 2009
For: free members/private members

Keeping your betting professional...

This week:
1. Scoop6: So close to the jackpot
2. Tipster combinations
3. Patterns of winners
4. Prices
5. Long-term success

1. Scoop6: So close to the jackpot

The free Scoop6 selections have been proving popular and have thrown up plenty of decent-priced winners since they were introduced a few weeks ago. Last Saturday, the selections very nearly landed the huge Win Fund. After the first 5 races, there were just three tickets remaining in the whole of the country. Two of those three tickets belonged to a cdsystems member who had permed the free selections.
With a third place in the final race, the selections narrowly missed out on the big prize but the compensation was £557 from four successful Place Fund lines. The Win Fund rolls over to this weekend.

2. Tipster combinations

The Racing Post includes a table of selections for each race, which is made up of prominent newspaper tipsters together with their own correspondents and ratings methods. These summaries of selections are popular with punters, which means they affect the market. A horse attracting ten or more selections is bound to be heavily punted, very often to the detriment of value.
Let's say there are two outstanding runners in one particular race. One of them looks to have a slight edge because of one particular line of form. The newspaper correspondents will all pick up on this perceived edge, even though it may not really amount to much, and select the same horse. The result is that the horse attracts say ten or twelve votes compared with only one or two for its main riv al. Punters looking at the table cannot fail to think that the dominant selection is way ahead in terms of chance when really it was only a relatively minor point which led to its mass selection.
So to perceive levels of chance based on a selection majority is obviously a flawed line of thought. There could well be an outstanding runner in some races, head and shoulders above the rest. But there will be plenty of other races where the most selected runner has only a very narrow form edge, if any, yet its true chance is grossly exaggerated by nearly all the tipsters picking up on the same little detail.

3. Patterns of winners

Whether you follow a system, make your own selections, or subscribe to a successful private investment plan like ProBets, you like to see the winners popping up in a nice regular pattern. Nobody likes losing sequences and minimising them is seen to be important. But how relevant are these sequences in a long-tem plan? The answer i s, provided they are adequately catered for in the staking plan, not very.
The reason why it is so important to anticipate these losing sequences is that it is mathematically impossible to stop them from happening. We don't know when they will occur but, if our long-term strike rate is accurate, we are in a good position to calculate the length of them. Thus, we set up our bank and staking pattern to cater for the inevitable, which is the professional approach to a betting investment. The amateur approach is to be unaware of these mathematical certainties or, even worse, to think they won't happen.
So may punters spend hours trying to figure out why a losing sequence has occurred, looking in vain to change something in their selection strategy that will avoid them in future. If only they would spend that same time setting up a staking plan to effectively absorb these inevitabilities, they would be so much better off.
The toss of a coin is 50/50, or even money, event . The more times you toss the coin, the more evenly matched will be the score between heads and tails. However, as the coin tossing exercise gets progressively longer, sequences of results will begin to creep in. There is no reason for them, other than mathematical probability. If you toss the coin 600 times, there is a 75% chance that one side will pop up seven times in succession. Nobody would even try to analyse the reason for this sequence because they know that, in the long run, each side of the coin must eventually show up the same number of times.
If your strike rate on the horses is a long-term 50%, the same mathematical principle applies. You don't try to analyse the reason for something which is more likely than not to occur, but you do cater for it beforehand. Strangely, punters never try to analyse the reasons for a winning sequence, which in a 50/50 environment will crop up as often, and be of the same duration, as the losing ones.

Footnote: If a coin lands on heads seven times in succession, it doesn't mean it is any more likely to land on tails next time. Each individual spin is a 50/50 chance and nothing that has gone before affects that next spin. If you suffer a similar losing run with your horses, your next bet has no greater or lesser chance of succeeding than it already has.

4. Prices

Having established your long-term strike rate, all you need to do is ensure you make your winning bets at big enough prices to provide a profit. Sounds simple but this is the toughest part of betting. It entails evaluating, as closely as possible, true chance which is always going to be difficult in a horse race. Punters who evaluate true chance most accurately are the long-term winners. Those who take prices which are too short to reflect true chance will lose. That is the main difference between professionals and amateurs. It is nothing to do with selection methods, it is to do with chance evaluation.
There are no good or bad strike rates; it all depends on the prices you secure for the winning bets. If your strike rate is 50% you need to place your winning bets at better than evens, on average, or you won't make a profit.
Spending lots of time improving your strike is of no use whatsoever if you don't gain an additional advantage in price. It is better to spend that time accurately assessing what you can do with your strike rate it in terms of pricing, staking and banking strategies.
A 20% strike rate with an average winning price of 5/1 will serve you well in the long-term but a 50% strike rate with bets made at even money won't make you anything at all. Your average winning price has to tie in with your strike rate in order for you to win. That is obvious, yet the vast majority of punters' time and effort is spent on trying to find winners, with so little time dedicated to the equally important price considerations.

5. Long-term success

Having absorbed the previous discussions on patterns and prices, it should now be easier to see why a professionally constructed operation succeeds while amateur efforts fall down virtually every time. To summarise, the shell of a professional operation looks like this:

a) Calculate the long-term strike rate of the particular bet type to be used in the operation.
b) Calculate the likelihood and duration of sequences based on this strike rate.
c) Set up a bank and calculate the optimum staking options based on strike rate and sequences.
d) Work on regularly obtaining prices sufficient to sustain growth. This is the day job.
e) Periodically and in a structured manner, re-invest profits to optimise long-term investment.

That's it in a nutshell.
The reason why the ProBets investment works so well is not just that it has a strike rate of 54%. More to the point, it has a strike rate of 54% using bets which are struck at an average price of greater than 11/8, and that is without taking into account betting exchange prices.
The staking plan is also very solid. It takes into account inevitable sequences and protects the investment during those times. Yet at the other end of the scale, it doesn't fall into the common trap of being overly cautious, a mistake that can jeopardise profitability just as much as an over-aggressive policy. Optimisation is the key, both in terms of staking and pricing.

Lots more pointers/advice to come in future newsletters. If you have lost any back copies they are reproduced on the site.

Until next time, all the very best with your betting.

Steve Jones
Professional Betting Advice & Strategy

Newsletter: Wednesday 1 April 2009
For: free members/private members

Keeping your betting professional...

This week:
1. Preparing for Aintree
2. What do you think will win?
3. Simple mathematics
4. Switching investments
5. Small samples

1. Preparing for Aintree

I emphasised the following points before Cheltenham but I think it is well worth revisiting them with Aintree about to start. These high profile events always give rise to more than their fair share of previews, reports, interviews, expert analysis etc, all of which appear in the media each day. This public information affects the betting markets and often in an exaggerated way. Reports of high-profile horses being in top shape inevitably lead punters to support them because of that information, resulting in prices shortening to an artificially low level.

It is good to have all this information but it is also important to realise that thousands of others have it too. Your use of public information helps determine whether or not you make your bets at the right price. There is a big danger of sacrificing potential value in order to jump on the bandwagon in these instances. The shrewd layers realise this and are more than happy to lay your bets at prices they know are artificially short because of an over-reaction to public information.

And, as always, just because a race is high profile (like the Grand National), doesn't mean you have to bet more than you normally would - or to bet at all without good reason. Thinking professionally at all times is a good habit to develop and 'fun' bets don't form any part of a professional's armoury.

2. What do you think will win?

I was reminded recently of an episode that took place in my local bookmakers some years ago. I was stood in front of the main screen watching the opening prices for a race coming through when one of the regulars asked me: 'What do you think will win?' The favourite was 4/5 and had the strongest form, so I truthfully replied: 'The favourite has to be the likeliest winner'. I hadn't finished what I was saying as he scurried off to the counter. Minutes later he saw me writing out a bet on the second favourite, taking the 9/2 on offer. 'You said you thought the favourite would win' he objected. 'I do', I said, 'but the favourite is probably one of the poorest bets in the race'. He couldn't grasp what I was saying, remarking: 'How can you bet on a different horse than the one you think will win?'. I tried to explain why this is common practice in professional betting and the main reason why professionals win and amateurs lose:

'If this race were run ten times, I'd say the favourite would win no more than four of them. So I'd want better than 6/4 to even contemplate a bet. I'm certain the second favourite would win at least twice in ten runnings, so I'm happy with 9/2.'
I explained to him that it isn't what you think will win that counts, it's the likelihood you think it has of winning. Once you are able to bet against the likeliest winner, and know full well that you are acting correctly, you are well on your way.
Of course, the likeliest winner may often be the right bet. It's all down to how likely you think it is to win, compared with the rewards on offer.

3. Simple mathematics

Whilst assessing a couple of significant market moves shortly before a recent handicap, a TV presenter deduced that: 'According to punters, the favourite (2/1) is now twice as likely to score as its main market rival (4/1).'
A solid grasp of probability is essential for successful betting and this particular observation didn't set a great example.
2/1 is the same as one chance in three (a 33.33% chance) whereas 4/1 represents one chance in five (a 20% chance). If those prices were a true reflection of chance, the favourite was nowhere near twice as likely to score as its main rival.

4. Switching investments

In today's economic climate, savers are lucky to get much more than 2% on their money over the year. In fact, investments with the potential to yield more than 3% are being advertised by as though they are wonderful. The NatWest Cash ISA is top of many comparison tables with its 3.51% AER (variable). The Birmingham Midshires 1 Year ISA pays 3% on a minimum investment of £500.
That same £500 invested in ProBets would have earned 85.5% in just four months from 1 December. A £1k ProBets investment has grown by 114.6% in the same period and a £2k investment by 129%.
The difference between the minimum investment ISA and the ProBets investment, apart from the huge gulf in terms of reward, is the fact that the whole of the investment doesn't have to be made available to begin with. Because only 5% of a ProBets investment is required on any one day, earnings can commence even if the full amount to be invested isn't immediately available. With a strike rate of 57% over the last four months (58 wins from 102 bets) and a longest losing sequence of just 4 during that time, there is a degree of breathing space for an investor to put together his/her fund whilst still being able to earn on that full amount.
As always, the earnings figures quoted in the examples are net of all fees and are based on bookmakers' prices rather than the very often higher returns available at the exchanges.

5. Small samples

Much is made of trainers' strike rates at particular tracks. These figures can sometimes be useful but it is worth bearing in mind that small samples of data are potentially misleading. For example, I noticed a trainer with a 30% record at one track which was made up of three wins from ten attempts. On the face of it, 30% is a decent figure but in this case the three wins had all been achieved by the same horse, with the seven other horses he had taken to the venue all well-beaten. Not only that, but two of the three wins were at odds-on, so were therefore expected. Armed with that knowledge, he certainly wouldn't be a trainer to follow blindly at the track. Similar explanations can often be found for other instances of high strikes from low samples, so it is well worth delving deeper than bare statistics in these cases.

Lots more pointers/advice to come in future newsletters. If you have lost any back copies they are reproduced on the site.

Until next time, all the very best with your betting.

Steve Jones
Professional Betting Advice & Strategy

Newsletter: Wednesday 4 March 2009
For: free members/private members

Keeping your betting professional...some mid-week reading

This week:
1. Preparing for Cheltenham
2. Wait for the price
3. Don't bet with your own money
4. Suited by conditions?
5. Evaluating claimers/sellers

1. Preparing for Cheltenham

With the big show getting underway next week there are lots of reports, interviews, stable tours etc appearing in the media each day. This public information affects the betting markets and often in an exaggerated way. Reports of a high-profile horse being in top shape will inevitably lead punters to support it because of that information, resulting in a shortening of its price both on the exc hanges and with the bookmakers.
It is good to have all this information but it is important to realise that thousands of others have it too. Your use of public information helps determine whether or not you make your bets at the right price. There is a big danger of sacrificing potential value to jump on the bandwagon in these instances. The shrewd layers realise this and are more than happy to lay your bets at prices they know are artificially short because of an over-reaction to public information.

Cheltenham is a track that traditionally favours horses to have gone well there before. Very often, proven ability on the track can more than bridge a gap in ability between two horses and this is well worth bearing in mind when assessing available prices.

...and don't be tempted into betting just because a race is high profile. An evens favourite pays just the same at Southwell as it does at Cheltenham.

2. Wait for the price

Common sense re ally, but if several of your bookmakers are offering an acceptable price it is well worth waiting to see if there is a subsequent market adjustment which leads to one or more of them lengthening their odds. Always have a minimum price in mind before you check the markets, and don't accept less. You will have calculated a minimum price when you were analysing the race, so stick with it. It is crucial that you reach this minimum price decision before you check the markets, rather than the other way round. Trying to work backwards from market prices, or even betting forecasts, and letting them influence your own decision is the wrong approach.

3. Don't bet with your own money

Your first target as an investor is to double your initial bank. As soon as that is achieved, take out your starting capital and begin the investment again using just the accrued profits. From that day onwards, you will never bet with your own money again provided your investment is st ructured correctly.
As of close of business on 3 March 2009, ProBets investors who started on 1 December 2008 with an opening bank of £600 or more have already doubled their investments, just three months after commencement, and that is after all fees have been accounted for.
Compared with the meagre interest rates available in the current climate, this is tremendous achievement. A ProBets investment is able to control the financial futures of its members, completely unaffected by the worldwide situation and, as such, its growth is in complete contrast to that seen anywhere else.

4. Suited by conditions?

The first thing most punters do when they see that the ground is soft or heavy is to scan the form of the runners, looking for win and placed efforts on a similar surface. That is all well and good, provided the form being taken into account is at a high enough level to be relevant. A horse that won a poor race on heavy ground early in its career m ay have done so despite the conditions and not because of them. It may not be able to handle the same conditions in the elevated class that it now competes. The same principle applies to all the conditions of a race, including track type and distance. Form at or above the class level of today's race is infinitely more reliable, in terms of a solid betting proposition, than that previously recorded at lower levels of competition.

5. Evaluating claimers/sellers

ProBets investors will have noticed the huge success we enjoy in this type of race. This comes about mainly because the media tends to create a lot of value for us. The first thing media commentators latch on to when discussing claimers and sellers are the horses 'best-in' at the weights. By 'best-in', they mean most favourably treated by the weights the trainers have allocated to their own runners, when compared to official ratings.
For example, if two horses contest a claimer with weights of 9- 3 and 9-1 and their official ratings are 85 and 70 respectively, the media will automatically pronounce the 85-rated runner 'best-in' because it would have to concede 15lbs to its rival in a handicap, but only gives it 2lbs today.
The problem arises when the official ratings aren't accurate, which turns out to be very often in these races. Moreover, the reason a horse takes its place in such events is usually because it isn't able to compete in handicaps from its current mark. The secret is to handicap the runners yourself. In doing so, your opinion of 'best-in' may turn out to be vastly different from that of a commentator who takes official ratings for granted, and influences the market at the same time.

Lots more pointers/advice to come in future newsletters. If you have lost any back copies they are reproduced on the site.

Until next time, all the very best with your betting.

Steve Jones
Professional Betting Advice & Strategy

Newsletter: Monday 23 February 2009
For: free members/private members

A selection of light reading....

This week:
1. Fiasco at Kempton
2. Check for headgear...and lack of it
3. Current interest rates and how to beat them
4. Understanding sequences
5. What they say

1. Fiasco at Kempton

The racing public, and not least ProBet members, were left dumbfounded as Saturday’s bet, Bellvano, failed to start in the bumper. After taking several turns, the runners were called in but Bellvano’s rider, conscious of the possibility of clipping heels, began to take another turn. At that precise moment, the starter let them go and Bellvano was left to trudge back to the stables .
No blame was apportioned by the stewards, but there was obviously a breakdown in communication between the starter and the jockey. More importantly, Bellvano was officially pronounced a runner, which meant that bets on him were lost. Shortly afterwards, several bookmakers announced that they would be refunding bets on Bellvano. They included Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Boylesports. A ProBets member kindly informed me that he had secured a refund from bet365 after some negotiation, even though they had originally settled it as a losing bet. Another managed to obtain a 50% refund from Ladbrokes.
The message, therefore, is to contact your individual bookmaker and try some negotiating. Quote what has been done by the above named bookmakers and see if yours will follow suit.
For the purposes of the ProBet results table, I have recorded the bet as a loser, although hopefully at least some of you will secure a refund.

2. Check for headgear...and lack of it

It is easy, when conducting form study, to fail to pay due attention to headgear. Changes in headgear will very often affect the way a horse runs. The application of blinkers, visor etc, either for the first time or after an absence without it, is likely to make a horse keen in the early stages. These tactics are often used by trainers who want their runner to take much closer order, or even make the running. This can affect your pace calculations and also the way you think the race will be run. For example, the horse you think will get an uncontested lead and dictate a steady pace may be taken on up front, making for a much stronger pace than you anticipate, or it may even have to give way to the unexpected front-runner and use tracking tactics when normally it prefers to lead.
It’s also well worth checking for any runners who normally wear headgear, but who are without it today. The effects are less predictable but the situation should be borne in mi nd, especially if your intended bet falls into that category.
To be on the safe side, it is worth the few of minutes it takes to check the headgear situation of every runner in the race and compare it to recent races and previous effects.

3. Current interest rates and how to beat them

At the time of writing, Money.co.uk’s top-ranked savings account, FirstSave, offers a 1-year deal of 3.6% for a minimum investment of £1,000.
That deal is 0.5% clear of anything else on the market.
The £1,000 invested in this top-rated account will be worth £1,036 after a year. No other savings account comes close.
Raising the risk factor, Money.co.uk’s current top-rated online dealing service is TD Waterhouse, and the portfolio they advocate is prepared by Fat Prophets. This portfolio made 19.4% during 2007, meaning that a £1,000 investment grew to £1,194.
Set at a similar level of medium risk, the ProBets are easily out-performing this top -rated outfit. A ProBets investment of £1,000 which commenced on 1 December 2008 is worth £2,082 today (22 February 2009), a growth of 108.2%. That is the net figure after all fees have been deducted (and it also takes Saturday’s controversial non-starter as a losing bet - see 1. above).
More of you are taking additional control of your finances by using the ProBets service and if you need any help with the details I’m just an email away. With an investment performance at this sort of level the credit crunch can certainly be countered.

4. Understanding sequences

Sequences, both good and bad, are an unavoidable part of betting. Yet, whatever your current sequence may be, it does not in any way affect the chance of your next bet. The fact that you have either won or lost your last seven bets does not give your eighth any more or less chance than it already has.
The long-term strike rate of your bets governs the length of winning and losin g sequences and there is nothing you can do about it, apart from being prepared. Mathematical calculations based on strike rate will enable you to anticipate likely sequences. The toss of a coin gives a 50% probability of it landing on heads. The chance of it landing on heads twice from two spins is 3/1. That is calculated from the fact that there are four different combinations of how it could land when spinning it twice (heads-heads, heads-tails, tails-heads, tails-tails), with heads-heads being the ‘winning’ combination. With three losing possibilities and one winning possibility, each of which is equally likely before the first spin is made, the odds of any one of those combinations occurring are 3/1 against.
Taking this further, and spinning the coin 600 times, the chances of it landing on heads 9 times in succession is 50%. That means, if the strike rate of your bets is 50% you have to face the fact that a losing run of 9 is a 50-50 possibility, even though that m ay seem highly unlikely when you are enjoying a winning spell. Recent results have no bearing on this 50-50 possibility. Provided your strike rate remains at 50%, the possibility of a losing run of 9 remains at 50%.
Understanding these mathematical rules is vital. Otherwise, when one of these lengthy losing runs occurs there is a big chance of you thinking you are doing something wrong and changing what has otherwise been a successful long-term strategy.
For a simple table which displays expected sequences based on strike rate, see the Don’t Go Broke page on the site.

5. What they say

Continuing with my efforts to highlight totally meaningless statistics given as ‘pointers’ by the media, this one takes the biscuit so far:
In the build-up to a Wetherby chase, covered live by Channel 4 at the end of last month, the commentator enthusiastically put forward a negative for one fancied runner: ‘...but no horse trained in Yorkshire has ever won this race before’. Enough said.

Until next time, have a successful week’s betting.

All the best for now,

Steve Jones
Professional Betting Advice & Strategy

Newsletter: Sunday 1 February 2009
For: free members/private members

Just the one topic this week....

Staking and banking using points

Based on several emails I have received, there is still an element of confusion regarding the use of points as a unit for staking and banking. This short piece is an attempt to clarify this concept for those who are not already familiar with it.

A point is a unit which is universally used to overcome the fact that investors set up banks of varying sizes. No matter what the value of an initial investment, appropriate staking instruction can be issued using points as a unit. For example, if the instruction is to set up a bank and then divide it into 20 equal points, one point to be staked on each selection, then an investor with a bank of £5,000 will stake £250 whilst an investor with a bank of £1,000 will stake £50. Both are staking the same percentage of their investment and, as a result, both investments will rise or fall to the same degree.

Below is a worked example to further clarify the technique. For this worked example I will use actual results from my ProBets, which can be viewed on the site. This way, readers can substitute their own figures in order to calculate how an investment set up at their own level would have performed.

At this stage it is important to note that different types of bet demand different levels of staking in order to obtain optimum performance. This is advised within the instructions for each bet type used on the site. The advised staking for the ProBets involves dividing an initial investment into 20 equal points and staking 1 point on each selection for a series of 100 bets. The bank is then prepared for the next series by dividing its new balance by 20 to obtain the revised value of 1 point, which will then be used as the level stake for the next 100 bets. This is the re-investment technique which provides optimum long-term growth without subjecting an investment to additional risk.

Worked example based on actual results:

Example bet type: ProBets
Example start date: 1 December 2008
Example initial investment: £1,000.00

Value of 1 point: £50.00
Level stakes (points): 1.00
Level stakes (£): £50.00

December 2008 performance:
Bets: 22
Wins: 13
Strike rate: 59.09%
Total stakes (points): 22.00
Total returns (points): 30.93
Total stakes (£): £1,100.00
Total returns (£): £1,546.50
Deductions (£5 per winner): £65.00
Net profit (Dec): £381.50
New investment balance (end Dec): £1,381.50
Net investment growth (1 Dec - 30 Dec): 38.15%

January 2009 performance:
Bets: 25
Wins: 15
Strike rate: 60.00%
Total stakes (points): 25.00
Total returns (points): 35.41
Total stakes (£): £1,250.00
Total returns (£): £1,770.50
Deductions (£5 per winner): £75.00
Net profit (Jan): £445.50
New investment balance (end Jan): £1,827.00
Net investment growth (1 Dec - 31 Jan): 82.70%

Please note that the 82.70% net growth, which has been achieved within two months, has not involved any increase in stakes (which occurs only after every 100 bets) and includes all deductions. Hopefully this worked example clarifies the use of the universal staking unit of points.

Until next time, have a great Sunday evening and a successful weeks betting.

All the best for now,

Steve Jones
Professional Betting Advice & Strategy

Newsletter: Sunday 25 January 2009
For: free members/private members

A bit of light reading for a Sunday....

This week:
1. What the pundits say
2. Scoop 6 versus National Lottery
3. Your questions answered
4. Trading on the exchanges
5. Re-investment re-emphasised
6. The two elements of a bet

1. What the pundits say

Lots of statistics are shouted enthusiastically by TV pundits before races. Some are relevant and others are not. Here are just a few:

‘No favourite has won this race for ten years’ (one of McCririck's favourite lines).
Relevance: None whatsoever. Every race is a completely separate entity. It is a unique grouping of a specific set of horses under specific conditions. The fact that previous favourites have fared poorly does not affect the chance of today's favourite in any way whatsoever.

‘This jockey has won the race twice in the last three years’
Relevance: If he is riding a different horse today, not that much. Although it is handy to have a competent rider on board, the horse has to possess the qualities required to win the race under the prevailing conditions.

‘This trainer has not had a winner for three months’
Relevance: It depends. If he has had a virus in the yard then that situation needs to clear up. If not, and he has been running just a few of his poorer horses recently, then the relevance is much less. A small yard may have only one or two decent horses. The expected mediocre performance of the lower lights does not detract from the stable stars chances. The best way of looking at this one is to concentrate on the prices of the horses to have run. If they were all rank outsiders then the relevance of the statement is usually negligible.

2. Scoop 6 versus National Lottery

Yesterdays Scoop 6 was not won, which means there will be a few million quid up for grabs next time. Those who pick all six winners next Saturday will, in addition to sharing the Win Fund pot, be given the chance to scoop the Bonus Fund jackpot the following Saturday by selecting the winner of just one more race. That jackpot prize will be of National Lottery proportions but the chances of winning it will be much better.
The chances of landing a National Lottery jackpot are around 14 million to one. The chances of selecting all six winners of the Scoop 6 races yesterday with a pin were 2.1 million to 1. By first of all removing the rank outsiders, those odds were drastically reduced to 243,000 to one for the pin-sticker. Selecting one more winner (for the Bonus Fund the following week) might increase those odds ten-fold but, even so, a pin-sticker will have a far greater chance of landing that big pot than winning the National Lottery. An able form student significantly more so.

3. Your questions answered

In an effort to help/advise website readers, I answer many queries each week. Sharing those answers with everyone in future newsletters will hopefully benefit all readers, so here are a few for starters:

Q. Can you please explain to me how you can price up a race and still determine value at shorter odds, such as for your ProBets?
A. In short, value can be defined as taking a price which is bigger than actual chance. In racing, actual chance is obviously open to opinion, which is why it is vital to price up a race yourself. Then, by comparing your own prices to those on offer, it is easy to see where potential value lies. The best bet in a race is very often not the horse you think will win. This is a very important concept and the one which most punters find most difficult to understand and act upon. Having said that, potential value can be found at virtually any price because it depends entirely your calculation of true chance.

Q. I am an avid follower of your sports bets and they perform consistently well. What has been your longest losing run?
A. As far as I can remember the longest losing run has been four. It happened fairly recently and also once during last year. I do not remember any losing runs above four occurring during the nine years so far.

Q. For how long would you paper trade a system before you actually put money on it?
A. I would probably paper trade for at least 200 bets before I started to invest any money, so that any unusual sequences could be played out. The free trials I perform on the site are usually for shorter periods than that, purely to allow me to run more trials during the year.
However, the rules of all tested systems are permanently displayed, allowing readers to paper trade further on the ones that interest them.

Look out for a new Q&A section on the site in the coming weeks.

4. Trading on the exchanges

I intend to write a comprehensive piece on this increasingly popular strategy in the coming weeks. For now, the obvious point to make is that money can be made from trading activity without selecting winners. The whole emphasis is on prices and judgement of how they will evolve. For example, if you expect a price to contract you can simply bet to win on the current price and then lay the shorter price when the market changes (and vice versa). Whatever the result, you cannot lose provided your stakes are calculated accordingly. The bets I advise are obviously designed to provide value. From that point of view, it is not really surprising that the vast majority of them contract in price. That makes them very attractive propositions for traders as well as longer-term investors. As far as my ProBets are concerned, 22 of the last 30 bets have contracted in price (73%). Of the 8 that did not contract, 7 won anyway. This makes the ProBets attractive not only to followers of my advised investment structure using win bets: 21 of the last 30 have won (70%), but also to the traders.
The Daily Bargain bets obviously have a far lower strike rate because they are aimed much higher up the market. However, because of the inherent attention to value used in their preparation, they have demonstrated a long-term pattern of highlighting prices well in excess of SP, making them another useful tool for traders.

A private trading advice service is a possibility for later in the year.

5. Re-investment re-emphasised

I cannot emphasise enough the power of re-investment. A cycle of 100 bets which produces a small profit is a potentially powerful investment tool if it can be repeated several times. For example, let us say you operate a series of 100 bets which, at level stakes, produces a profit of ten points. Let us also say, for the purpose of illustration, that you placed those bets from a bank of 20 points. At the end of that series, your bank would have increased by 50%. That means your level stakes for the next series of 100 bets can increase by 50% without placing any additional risk factor onto the overall investment. If the next series performs to the same level, the bank will then stand at 45 points. Form a starting bank of 20, your total investment has shown a growth of 125%. That is after just two series of bets which each produced a level stakes profit of 10 points over 100 bets. During that time, you never risked more than 5% of your bank on any one bet.
Here is a progress table of how a longer-term investment would perform given the same conditions and performance:

Calculation criteria:
Starting bank: 20 points
Level stakes: 1 point
Profit for each series of 100 bets: 10 points
Re-investment element: Rule off after each series of 100 bets. Then take 5% of the overall investment balance to use as the level stake for the next series.

Series 1: Closing bank: 30 points
Series 2: Closing bank: 45 points
Series 3: Closing bank: 67.5 points
Series 4: Closing bank: 101.25 points
Series 5: Closing bank: 151.88 points

...and so on. Had your original investment been worth £1,000, then your closing balance after just 5 series would be £7,594. And that is with a performance that many would not find particularly inspiring: 10 points profit over 100 bets using level stakes of 1 point. Imagine how an investment constructed in this way would look with a higher performance level. For example, the ProBets profit over the last 30 bets is 20.6 points to level stakes of 1 point.

Do not forget that construction of a bank, together with the staking from it, has to be calculated correctly. You cannot just choose any bank/stake relationship because your likely losing sequences have to be closely considered. To be able to do that, you have to have a good idea of the strike rate your bets will provide. The Dont Go Broke page on the site explains in detail how to set up an investment bank and stake from it in order to gain optimum results.

6. The two elements of a bet

There are two elements to every bet you make: a selection and a price. You cannot have one element without the other and they are both equally important. The two together make up a bet. With that in mind, it is amazing how most punters spend 99% of their time on the selection element. Then again, most punters lose in the long term and the reason is glaringly obvious. They do not put enough (or any) effort into the price element of their bets. If you go shopping for a loaf of bread there will be two elements to your choice when you get to the shop. You will look at the different loaves displayed together with their prices. If the best loaf is dearer than you think it should be you are likely to opt for a cheaper one, provided it has sufficient quality for your requirements.
Compare that analogy with a bet in the 2.30 at Kempton. The horse you think will win the race is priced at 4/6. You think it has a 50% chance of winning. Would you bet it to win at that price? Absolutely not. There may be a horse in the same race that you consider has a 25% chance of success. That one is priced at 9/2. It must be worth a bet, and certainly in preference to your first selection.
Selection and price. They go together. They are not separate entities, they are two parts of one thing: your intended bet.
It is so very difficult, especially at first, to comprehend betting against the horse you think will win. But once you are able to do that, and understand clearly and precisely why you are doing so, you will be well on the road to success.

Until next time, have a great Sunday evening and a successful weeks betting.

All the best for now,

Steve Jones
Professional Betting Advice & Strategy