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Pearls
Of Wisdom |
Approaching
betting in a professional manner |
.....Pearls
of Wisdom.....No.1.....
The main difference between a professional punter
and an amateur is that the professional spends less time and effort
looking for winners and more time looking for prices. That is the aspect
of betting on which you must concentrate if you are ever to become
professional. |
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.....Pearls
of Wisdom.....No.2.....
The best bet in a race is not necessarily the most
likely winner. Given two options on the roll of a dice, 'any number over
two' and 'any number below three', the first option is the likeliest
winner, but, at odds of 2/5 and 5/2 respectively, it would be the worst
bet of the two. |
|
.....Pearls
of Wisdom.....No.3.....
Sequences, both good and bad, are an unavoidable part of betting. Yet, whatever your current sequence may be, it does not
in any way affect the chance of your next bet. The fact that you have
either won or lost your last seven bets does not give your eighth any more or less chance
than it already has. |
|
.....Pearls
of Wisdom.....No.4.....
The next time that you are tempted to bet a big
priced runner each-way remember that a 20/1 runner-up, when supported
each-way at fifth odds, pays only the same as a 6/4 winner. Under such
circumstances a stake of one point each-way would return you just five
points for your total outlay of two points, equating to odds of only 6/4. |
|
.....Pearls
of Wisdom.....No.5.....
The effect of additional weight is greatly negated
on tight horse racing tracks. The horses are continually running around
bends and never get into the prolonged straight gallop where extra weight
would tell. On such tracks we would therefore expect those at the top of
the handicap to do well, and that is the case, as can be seen from the
results of the Topweights System. |
|
.....Pearls
of Wisdom.....No.6.....
He will price up the race himself before the markets
open.....if he can't get the price he wants he won't even have a penny
on, no matter how much of a good thing he thinks the horse is. Terry
Ramsden describing the key to the success of legendary punter J. P.
McManus. |
|
.....Pearls
of Wisdom.....No.7.....
Don't worry about losing sequences, expect them.
Provided your bets are made at a bigger price than they really should be
you will come out on top. A couple of 7/1 winners at either end of a
losing sequence of 28 will return just as much as another series of 32
bets, all made at even money, with an alternate win-lose pattern, and
comprising losing sequences of no more than one. |
|
.....Pearls
of Wisdom.....No.8.....
As a professional you need to understand that you
are betting against other punters and not against a bookmaker. Terms such
as 'beat the bookie' and players who refer to bookmakers as 'the enemy'
don't reflect the mechanics of betting. Your 'enemies' are your fellow
punters, and the bookmaker provides a service through which you compete
with them. |
|
.....Pearls
of Wisdom.....No.9.....
'In-form' and 'out-of-form' can be misleading
terms in racing. A trainer can hit a 50% strike rate but if his winners
are odds-on it doesn't mean he is 'in-form'. A jockey can ride a dozen
no-hopers but it doesn't mean he is 'out-of-form'. To get a true idea of
whether someone is 'in-form' we need to compare strike rate against price
(actual success against expectation of success). |
|
.....Pearls
of Wisdom.....No.10.....
For some reason punters tend to stake more than
normal on the big meetings. The truth is that high value bets are more
difficult to find in races where there are more serious contenders. The
seasoned professional maintains an ingrained discipline at these times. If
you are operating with a fixed staking method from a pre-prepared betting
bank this is a potential pitfall which will be avoided. |
|
.....Pearls
of Wisdom.....No.11.....
Take regular breaks from betting. It helps you keep
everything in perspective and gives you time to analyse your performance.
Taking time out is especially important when you are deep into a
significant sequence of results, and that applies equally whether it be a
positive sequence or a negative one. |
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.....Pearls
of Wisdom.....No.12.....
When properly controlled, professional betting is a
very attractive form of investment. It is vital that you have a betting
bank set up specifically for the purpose. The size of your bank should be, at the very
least, equivalent to the longest losing run you can mathematically expect
multiplied by your maximum stake, and ideally you should also have a
reserve bank of the same amount. That way you will remain in control
throughout the period of your investment.
|
|
.....Pearls
of Wisdom.....No.13.....
To have any idea whether you are obtaining value for
your bet, you must be able to price up an event yourself. You have to be
able to express your opinions in numeric terms in order to compare them
with the opinions of the layers. Merely attempting to select winners is
not enough and will get you nowhere in the long term.
|
|
.....Pearls
of Wisdom.....No.14.....
Would
you do your shopping without taking notice of the prices on the shelves? When shopping you
normally decide, before
you set out, how much money to take and what you expect to get for that
money. If you can't get it you don't part with your cash. Similar rules
apply to betting. |
|
.....Pearls
of Wisdom.....No.15.....
Spending
too long studying a race is often worse than not spending long enough. If
you continue to study once you feel comfortable about a selection you can
become immobilised to the extent that, even if you do change your mind,
you cannot possibly feel happy about doing so. |
|
.....Pearls
of Wisdom.....No.16.....
Any
method which relies purely on picking winners is both fraught
with danger and incomplete. Staking to optimise returns and the
awareness of mathematically determined sequences are both
equally vital.
|
|
.....Pearls
of Wisdom.....No.17.....
Inside
information is useful in that it can highlight the fact that a
horse is fit and ready to run to the best of its ability.
However, to gain any real benefit from that knowledge we need to
be fully aware of the strength of the opposition. This is often
only possible through detailed form study.
|
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©
2000 - 2023 Professional Betting Advice and Strategy from cdsystems.
| |
Professional
Betting
Portfolio
by
Steve Jones
|
WINNER:
OUTSTANDING
CONTRIBUTION
TO
TIPPING 2018
Awarded
by
Smart
Betting Club
|
BEST
HORSE
RACING
TIPSTER:
2021
Bronze Award
BEST
HORSE
RACING
TIPSTER:
2013
Silver Award
|
BEST
OVERALL
TIPSTER:
2013
Bronze Award
As
voted by
members
of
Smart
Betting Club
|
Recent
winning bets:
Tue
3 Dec
Daily
Bargain
Jackson
Street
Won
11/2(r4)
to 5/1
Tue
3 Dec
ProBets
Red
Maids
Won
9/2 to 2/1
Mon
2 Dec
ProBets
Caramay
Won
7/4 to 6/4
Fri
29 Nov
ProBets
Down
Around
Won
11/2 to 7/2
Fri
29 Nov
Daily
Bargain
Hermino
AA (nb)
Won
15/2 (SP 17/2)
Thu
28 Nov
Daily
Bargain
Cardamon
Hill (nb)
Won
11/2 (SP 6/1)
Wed
27 Nov
Daily
Bargain
Supreme
Gift
Won
7/1(r4)
to 3/1
+
Harbour Lake (nb)
2nd
11/4(r4) to
2/1
Exacta:
£11.10
Wed
27 Nov
ProBets
Marsh
Wren
Won
7/2 to 11/4
Tue
26 Nov
ProBets
Broughshane
Won
5/1(r4) to
10/3
Mon
25 Nov
Daily
Bargain
Es
Perfecto
Won
9/2 to 11/4
Mon
25 Nov
ProBets
Kabral
Du Mathan
Won
13/8 to Evs
Sat
23 Nov
ProBets
Royale
Pagaille
Won
4/1(r4) to
11/4
Fri
22 Nov
ProBets
Kylian
Won
7/1 to 13/2
Thu
21 Nov
Daily
Bargain
Showtime
Mahomes
Won
14/1 (SP 16/1)
Wed
20 Nov
ProBets
Duke
Of Oxford
Won
5/2
Tue
19 Nov
ProBets
Hitched
Won
6/4 to 4/7
Fri
15 Nov
ProBets
Hyland
Won
5/2 to 2/1
Wed
13 Nov
ProBets
Phoenix
Moon
Won
6/1 to 5/1
Tue
12 Nov
ProBets
Norman
Fletcher
Won
6/4 to Evs
Mon
11 Nov
ProBets
Overnight
Oats
Won
7/1 to 4/1
Sun
10 Nov
ProBets
Certainly
Red
Won
9/4 to 15/8
Sun
10 Nov
Daily
Bargain
El
Rio (nb)
Won
2/1 (SP 5/2)
Sat
9 Nov
ProBets
Rubaud
Won
11/10
Fri
8 Nov
Daily
Bargain
Asian
Spice
Won
9/1(r4)
to 3/1
Thu
7 Nov
Daily
Bargain
Fortunate
Star
Won(dh)
15/2 to 9/4
Sat
2 Nov
ProBets
Williethebuilder
Won
5/2(r4) to
13/8
Thu
31 Oct
Daily
Bargain
Run
Boy Run
Won
17/2 to 15/2
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