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Friday 9 September 2005

 

Bangor 5.15

1. FEARLESS MEL

Stake: 3 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 0-105 Handicap Chase (Class E)

Distance: 3m 0.5f

Track: Left-handed, tight, fairly flat

Ground: Good-firm

 

Analysis:

We have proved many times over the years that the effect of additional weight is greatly negated on tight tracks. On such courses the weight serves to hold the horse into the turns more than to slow it down, as would happen to a much greater degree on galloping or uphill tracks. Having said that, it is always preferable if the runner in question is already proven to act on a track with tight turns, which suits handy sorts rather than long-striding types.

 

Fearless Mel proved that he does just that when taking a handicap chase over this c/d by nearly twenty lengths just two weeks ago. Today's rider was in the saddle and the partnership went clear off the home turn to win very comfortably. The only other c/d winner in today's field is badly out of form and was tailed off in the same race.

 

The Dalton yard have almost a 30% strike rate with chasers at this venue, which is far in excess of any of the others. Today's rider is the only one ever to have won on Fearless Mel, something he has done in two handicap chases, both of which came on tight tracks, including this one two weeks ago.

 

Main market rival Waynesworld has yet to win a race in thirteen attempts under rules and had a fall last time out, from which he will need to bounce back. His yard haven't had a chasing winner since February.

 

From a yard that specialises in chasers, Fearless Mel would be very difficult to beat if he comes back here and runs as he did a fortnight ago.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

FEARLESS MEL WON 5/2

 

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Thursday 8 September 2005

 

Doncaster 4.30

4. FAVOURABLE TERMS

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Listed Stakes (Class 1)

Distance: 7f

Track: Straight, galloping flat

Ground: Good-firm (good places)

 

Analysis:

Sir Michael Stoute's Favourable Terms would certainly be odds-on for this event but for the fact that she is returning from a long break following a pelvic injury and she is running over 7f, a trip that she hasn't encountered since she was a 3yo.

 

However, there are grounds for believing that this multiple Group winner should indeed be odds-on. Firstly, the absence shouldn't be any problem. She comfortably won the Group 2 Windsor Forest Stakes on her reappearance last year, following an absence of over eight months. Very encouragingly, she has been working really well at home recently, galloping all over a couple of the yard's other Group winners and looking in prime condition.

 

Regarding the trip, which is a furlong less than the distance over which she has won two Group 2 events: In both of those races she was clear of her field before the furlong pole, and the devastating turn of foot that she possesses means that she should be just as comfortable on a galloping track over this trip as she is over a mile, especially at this much lower level.

 

Her main market rivals are Nufoos, who is just below Group 3 winning standard, Clinet, beaten in a Listed event this year, and Roodeye, who is also below Group 3 winning standard. Meanwhile, Favourable Terms has a Group 1, a couple of Group 2s and a Listed win to her credit. From a class point of view she is way in front of the others and Fallon, who partnered her to all of those big wins, rides again today after being heavily involved in her preparations.

 

Steve Jones

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FAVOURABLE TERMS WON 5/6

 

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Saturday 27 August 2005

 

York 4.35

2. HEUREUX

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 2yo Maiden Stakes (Class 3)

Distance: 6f

Track: Straight, galloping, flat

Ground: Good (good-soft places)

 

Analysis:

We have proved many times that the benefit of previous experience is often underestimated, especially when an experienced runner has favourable conditions.

 

With that in mind, Howard Johnson's Heureux, with a fine c/d second under his belt just ten days ago, should prove difficult to beat with two of his three main market rivals making their racecourse debuts whilst Heureux drops in grade with both track and trip proven to suit.

 

The form of that Class 2 run here last week looks very solid indeed. The winner, Johannes, had previously finished second to Palace Episode, who then went on to land the Listed Acomb Stakes on this track next time out and has major Group 1 entries for later in the season. Johannes is entered in the Listed Ripon Champion 2yo Trophy on Monday.

 

Heureux's sire, the champion sprinter Stravinsky, loved it here and was unbeaten on the track. The only time he was defeated over 6f was in the Breeders' Cup. Heureux himself cost nearly a quarter of a million Euros and his wealthy connections will be expecting a return on that investment today.

 

Steve Jones

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HEUREUX WON 11/4

 

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Lingfield 3.50

6. TIME FOR LIFE

Stake: 2 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 2yo Auction Maiden Stakes (Class 5)

Distance: 6f

Track: Left-handed, tight

Ground: Polytrack (standard)

 

Analysis:

Following his fine recent debut, over this trip at Nottingham last Monday, Time For Life looks very likely to run a big race here.

 

He finished 2nd/15 that day, beaten only a neck by a fancied runner who had the benefit of previous experience, and the pair were over a length clear of the more experienced favourite, with a big gap back to the rest.

 

Time For Life, once he had got the hang of things following a slow start, finished fast but the post came just too soon for him. Debutants often start slowly on their first outing, and in a race like this one, run around two tight bends, that sort of lapse can be costly. Time For Life has the benefit of previous experience this time around, whilst his main market rival, David Loder's Night In, is having his first-ever run. From a low draw, he can't really afford to come out too slowly.

 

The fact that top sand rider Richard Quinn is booked for this ride is eye-catching. Quinn has no less than a 55% strike rate when riding on sand for this yard. He has ridden all four of the stable's all-weather winners this year from a total of only eight rides, whilst the total return of the nine other riders that have been used this year is no wins from eighteen.

 

Just as interesting is Quinn's record of four wins from seven rides for owner Peter Webb. All those were on turf but it's no surprise that Webb wants Quinn on board for his first-ever all-weather runner.

 

The stake for this bet would be higher if Time For Life had run on Polytrack before but, having said that, this surface doesn't cause anywhere near the problems for horses transferring from turf as is the case with Fibresand, and the trainer is an old hand at producing all-weather winners.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

TIME FOR LIFE WON 15/8

 

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Wednesday 24 August 2005

 

Perth 2.20

8. OSTFANNI

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Maiden Hurdle (Class E)

Distance: 2m 4.5f

Track: Right-handed, tight, flat

Ground: Good-firm

 

Analysis:

The Todhunter stable won this event last year so they know what is required and their representative this time around, Ostfanni, has solid credentials.

 

With some heavy rain forecast overnight, it is comforting to know that she is proven to handle any ground from good-firm to heavy, a comment that is not so easily applied to her main rivals.

 

The form of her last appearance in a maiden hurdle, when she ran a fine 2nd/18 at Ludlow (another right-handed track) over half a furlong further than today's trip, sets the standard here. She was only beaten half a length with a long way back to the other fifteen runners. A repeat of anything like that effort will make her hard to beat and Graham Lee, who was on board that day, takes the ride again.

 

She showed that she is fit and ready when given a run on the flat at the start of the month and that should have prepared her well for this.

 

Main market rival Thuringe is making her debut in this country following three well-beaten hurdling efforts in France last year. She hasn't run at all since last November and, if the ground stays any better than soft, the surface will be new to her too.

 

Todhunter has a very good record at this venue and also in this type of race, and he could well repeat last year's win in this event.

 

Steve Jones

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OSTFANNI WON 4/6

 

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Friday 19 August 2005

 

Ayr 2.10

11. SOUVENANCE

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 2yo Auction Maiden Stakes (Class 5)

Distance: 7.23f

Track: Left-handed, galloping, fairly flat

Ground: Good (good-firm places)

 

Analysis:

We have proved many times over the years that the benefit of previous experience is underestimated, especially when a horse has conditions in its favour.

 

Sir Mark Prescott is in fine form, as is normally the case at this time of the year, and he sends his filly Souvenance on a 720-mile round trip as his sole representative at Ayr today.

 

Having already proven herself over this trip, track type and ground conditions on her debut, she should be hard to beat with the experience under her belt.

 

That debut came twelve days ago on another galloping track at Redcar, when she went down by only half a length to Mark Johnston's Sunday Smile, who already had the benefit of two previous runs. The fact that Souvenance was well-backed on her debut told us that she was ready and she was unlucky to find one just too experienced on the day.

 

Under very similar conditions and in the same grade, she can put her experience to good use, and Prescott has booked a rider that has won on two of the three occasions that he has partnered one of the yard's 2yos.

 

The fact that Souvenance is entered in the Group 1 Meon Valley Stud Mile at Newmarket next month says a lot for her reputation and connections will be expecting her to justify that today.

 

Steve Jones

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SOUVENANCE WON 5/4

 

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Thursday 18 August 2005

 

Chester 2.50

2. CUPID'S GLORY

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 3yo Conditions Stakes (Class 3)

Distance: 7.55f

Track: Left-handed, very tight, flat

Ground: Good-firm

 

Analysis:

As usual, the Prescott yard are accumulating the winners during August. They have eight so far and Cupid's Glory looks well capable of increasing the score.

 

Sir Mark has decided to send his colt for this Class 3 event at Chester rather than go for a Listed event, for which he was also entered, at York. Stable jockey Seb Sanders, who was at York yesterday, goes to Chester to partner Cupid's Glory rather than staying at York to ride Pedrillo in the big handicap, even though the Chester race is worth only a third of the York prize.

 

The decision to choose Chester looks a wise one because Cupid's Glory is already proven around these very tight turns, having won here at this time last year. Two wins at Lingfield have also demonstrated his ability to handle tight turns and Sanders was particularly impressed with the way he came off the final bend at Chester.

 

Having won a Group 3 event at the back end of last season, he then followed up by running within a couple of lengths in a French Group 1, so this Class 3 stakes should be well within his compass.

 

Cupid's Glory is very highly regarded and still holds entries for the Celebration Mile and the QEII, so he would need to win this comfortably to justify those targets.

This is faster ground than he's had so far but his sire had no problems with it and neither did his full sister, Courting.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

CUPID'S GLORY WON 13/8

 

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Thursday 11 August 2005

 

Chepstow 6.45

2. ASAAWIR

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 2yo Nursery (Class 5)

Distance: 6.07f

Track: Straight, undulating

Ground: Good-firm

 

Analysis:

Mick Channon is having a great year with his 2yos and has recorded as many winners with them as with the rest of his other horses put together. Three have won in recent days and Asaawir could well be another to add to his tally.

 

Already a maiden winner over today's c/d on fast ground, Asaawir improved again at the start of the month when she ran a fine second behind Escape Plan in a stakes event at Ripon, again on fast ground. All but one of the runners in that event had already won before, so the standard was fairly good. Escape Plan is very highly regarded and has a Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes entry for next month, so we should expect Asaawir to go very well in a Class 5 nursery under very similar conditions to those she had ten days ago at Ripon.

 

Channon had the filly entered in two other nurseries, both today and tomorrow, so she must be in good shape. He chooses this event in preference to the others and also has a couple of valuable Class 2 events lined up for her next month.

 

Asaawir's speed figure for her last run was better than any of the others and she is obviously improving fast. In contrast, only one of the others, The London Gang, recorded a personal best speed figure last time out, and he has faster ground to contend with today.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

ASAAWIR WON 5/2

 

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Thursday 4 August 2005

 

Haydock 3.10

4. AVIATION

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 3yo Maiden Claiming Stakes (Class 6)

Distance: 1m 0.14f

Track: Left-handed, galloping, mainly flat

Ground: Good

 

Analysis:

This is a poor race for 3yo maidens but something has to win it and the clear pick on virtually any criteria we choose to employ is Richard Hannon's Aviation.

 

He has the highest official rating by 7lbs yet he receives 4lbs from the pair that are nearest to him in those ratings. He is way ahead in terms of speed figures and his personal best in that respect was achieved on today's track and ground. He is one of only four already proven over a mile and is the only one with any sort of form at this venue. His yard gets the most winners here and his rider has the best strike rate on the track.

 

Even though Aviation is still a maiden after a dozen races he has so much in hand of his opponents that he must have his best ever chance to put that to rights. He has been hinting at doing just that recently as three of his closest efforts have all come within his last four outings. This is the lowest graded race he has ever contested and, contrary to popular opinion, blinkers tend to work better on the second application than they do on the first.

 

His main market rival, Sound And Vision, is a maiden after sixteen races and has already been well-beaten several times at this level, including on his latest outing just last Saturday.

 

Steve Jones

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AVIATION WON 4/6

 

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Tuesday 2 August 2005

 

Catterick 3.30

3. COURT OF APPEAL

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Claiming Stakes (Class 6)

Distance: 1m 3.97f

Track: Left-handed, tight, undulating

Ground: Good-firm (good places)

 

Analysis:

Catterick is a course for specialists. With its tight turns and undulating nature it suits the handy, well-balanced animal but is totally unsuitable for the long-striding galloping types who can easily become unbalanced.

 

Court Of Appeal certainly falls into the category of course specialist. He has never finished out of the first three in six visits, winning two of his last three. His latest win came over this c/d and he is the only runner in the field to have achieved a c/d win. That came three weeks ago, on fast ground, when he won another Class 6 claimer by no less than six lengths.

 

Claiming company suits Court Of Appeal ideally these days, and his last four runs in this type of event have resulted in two wins, a second and a third. His liking for tight tracks is extremely pronounced and all his seven career wins have come on this sort of circuit. Today's rider has been on board for three of his last four wins, including one on this track.

 

The runner-up from his latest c/d claimer has won since to boost the form and, with only two of these nine runners proven on the unusual track, Court Of Appeal should have a fine chance to record his third course win and his fourth success for today's rider, with whom he has finished out of the first four only once in eight runs.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

COURT OF APPEAL WON 10/11

 

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Thursday 28 July 2005

 

Epsom 8.05

4. LORD OF THE EAST

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Claiming Stakes (Class 5)

Distance: 7f

Track: Left-handed, tight, undulating, downhill

Ground: Good (good-soft places)

 

Analysis:

Epsom is a track for specialists. With its undulations and downhill straight, many runners, especially the long-striding galloping types, become unbalanced. The track ideally suits a handy well-balanced animal.

 

Seven furlongs is a trip for specialists. Being neither a sprint nor a mile it is one of the least common distances that runners find ideal for them. Races of this nature tend to attract failed sprinters who are upped in trip and out-of-form milers dropped in distance.

 

Only half of this eight-runner field have ever won over seven furlongs and only two of those are proven on this unusual track. One is the rank outsider of the party and the other is the in-form Lord Of The East.

 

Dandy Nicholls does well on these 480-mile round trips and has recorded almost as many course winners as all these other yards put together. Lord Of The East certainly enjoys the journeys because he has won here four times and finished in the frame on a total of seven occasions from his ten visits. The three times he failed to place all came in handicap races.

 

Four times a winner over today's trip, he showed himself to be in fine form with an easy win in another claimer just last Saturday. He has won eight times when running within close proximity to a previous outing and, after three rides at Goodwood earlier in the day, Adrian Nicholls makes his way to Epsom especially for just this one evening ride.

 

Steve Jones

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LORD OF THE EAST WON 5/2

 

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Wednesday 27 July 2005

 

Goodwood 5.10

8. ROSINKA

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 2yo Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Class 2)

Distance: 6f

Track: Straight, undulating, downhill finish

Ground: Good-soft

 

Analysis:

John Dunlop's three runners on the first day of Glorious Goodwood all performed well without winning, but the in-form trainer he has a good chance to make amends with his promising filly Rosinka.

 

Her only racecourse experience so far came over this trip at Newbury almost a month ago. With Johnny Murtagh on board, she ran a fine 2nd/19, well clear of the third, behind Mick Channon's Queen Of Fire. The fact that Rosinka was in the stalls for several minutes didn't do her chances any favours, and she ran green for the most part. However, she really picked up when she got the hang of things in the closing stages and gave the distinct impression that there was much more to come from her. Queen Of Fire went on to run within a length of the winner in the Group 2 Cherry Hinton Stakes a week later, which looks good for Rosinka in the context of today's Class 2 maiden.

 

Rosinka's sire, Soviet Star, is also responsible for the top-class performer Starcraft, who has won three times on soft ground. Her dam, Last Drama, was also responsible for multiple winner Lasting Life, who was a real mudlark, so it is hard to see how Rosinka could be inconvenienced by this softer surface.

 

Her main market rival today, Aurora Jane, comes from a yard that do well in this event. However, she makes her racecourse debut today and we have seen many times over the years how often the benefit of previous experience is underestimated.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

ROSINKA WON 6/4

 

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Tuesday 26 July 2005

 

Beverley 2.35

7. RIVER LENA

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 2yo Maiden Stakes (Class 5)

Distance: 7.45f

Track: Right-handed, stiff, uphill finish

Ground: Good-firm

 

Analysis:

Mark Johnston's stable couldn't be in much better shape at the moment, having averaged a winner a day over the last two weeks. That prolific current form, combined with the trainer's 27% strike rate with 2yos on this track, bodes well for the chances of River Lena today.

 

The filly is unlucky to still be a maiden following narrow defeats over 7f on each of her two outings to date. The first came at Thirsk, when she ran very green on what was her first racecourse appearance, but she got the hang of things late on and stayed on well to get within less than a length of the more experienced winner and runner-up.

 

Following that promising debut, she was made favourite for another maiden at Yarmouth at the end of last month. Different tactics were used and she attempted to make all the running. As with many of Johnston's runners, she proved very difficult to pass and only went down by a neck to David Loder's well-regarded filly Snow Crystal, with three lengths back to the third.

 

This stiff track, with its emphasis on stamina rather than speed, should be ideal for her and she will have no problem with the ground. Main market rival, Sweet Lime, hasn't had a surface this fast before, and, on a track that strongly favours prominent runners, he may struggle to get past the tough River Lena up the final hill.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

RIVER LENA WON 11/10

 

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Monday 25 July 2005

 

Sedgefield 2.30

8. OH SO BRAVE

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Beginners' Chase (Class E)

Distance: 2m 5f

Track: Left-handed, stiff, undulating

Ground: Firm (good-firm places)

 

Analysis:

Evan Williams isn't a gambling trainer but he did have a few quid on Oh So Brave to win a handicap hurdle at Stratford last June and there is a fair chance that he will be supporting his gelding again here.

 

Less than half of these runners have ever completed a chase before and the recent form shown by Oh So Brave is enough to suggest that he will go very close in such a poor event.

 

His two previous runs over this trip and on this track over hurdles have produced a win and a second, suggesting that he enjoys a left-handed stiff track and the fact that he stays further than today's distance, as he proved when going down by a narrow margin over 2m 7.5f at Worcester (another left-handed track where the emphasis is on stamina) last time out, is a big plus. He was only beaten by an unconsidered rank outsider on similarly fast ground and was well clear of the remainder under today's jockey.

 

The yard have scored with two of only four chasers that they have sent on this 560-mile round trip over the last five years. Christian Williams knows the gelding well and was on board for both his previous wins. The partnership have only been unplaced once from eight outings.

 

With a dry forecast, this fast ground lover should be in his element on a stiff track like this and his previous chasing experience should stand him in good stead against what looks a very moderate set of opponents.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

OH SO BRAVE WON 13/8

 

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Thursday 21 July 2005

 

Bath 2.55

4. WATERLINE TWENTY

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 2yo Novice Stakes (Class 5)

Distance: 5.05f

Track: Left-hand dog-leg, uphill

Ground: Firm (hard places)

 

Analysis:

This uphill sprint demands stamina as well as speed, and Waterline Twenty, who takes a big drop in grade following efforts in Group and Listed class, looks well equipped to deal with it.

 

She is already proven over c/d, having won here on her racecourse debut back in May. Following that maiden success she was plunged straight into the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes at the Royal meeting the following month. On the much quicker track at York she was unsurprisingly behind early on, but she finished to very good effect in the closing stages for a fine 7th/17.

 

She was upped in trip for a Listed contest on her third and latest career start. She was bumped and finished down the field, but the fact that she started third favourite for that event shows what a big chance she must have now that she is back on her winning track, back over her winning distance and down in a Class 5 stakes.

 

Main market rival Past Tender has put in two fine efforts from three runs, but crucially, his one poor performance came over an uphill 5f. Rag Tag was a c/d winner last time out but only in a poor maiden.

 

The top three speed figures in this race all belong to Waterline Twenty, so a repeat of any of them should be sufficient today. Jamie Spencer has been on board for all her three career starts and is very good tactically in small fields.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

WATERLINE TWENTY WON 13/8

 

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Wednesday 20 July 2005

 

Catterick 3.50

1. RUDI'S PET

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Claiming Stakes (Class 6)

Distance: 5f

Track: Straight, undulating, downhill

Ground: Good-firm (firm places)

 

Analysis:

This downhill five furlongs suits a handy well balanced sprinter who runs prominently, and the evergreen veteran Rudi's Pet fits the bill ideally. It was good to see him back in the winners' enclosure once more, earlier this month, and today's event is two grades lower than the handicap he won then.

 

His prominent style of running is well-suited to this sort of track, as can be seen from his wins at Epsom and Goodwood, and he has run well here too. Today's rider gets on well with him and was on board for his latest success, as well as for his sterling performance in finishing within a length of Harrison's Flyer in a Class 2 Handicap back in May. A repeat of either of those runs, which produced his best two speed figures since 2003, would surely be good enough here.

 

Sprinters in form are always worth a close look when they have conditions in their favour, and Dandy Nicholls, who is way ahead of the other yards for winners on this track, has Rudi's Pet in the best shape he has been in for a long time.

 

The sunny forecast won't please connections of main market rival Seven No Trumps and Absent Friends, another potential danger, has only ever won when running within a couple of weeks of a previous outing and he hasn't been seen since mid-April.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

RUDI'S PET WON 11/8

 

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Monday 11 July 2005

 

Wolverhampton 6.45

6. FRENCH MANNEQUIN

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 0-60 Claiming Stakes (Class 6)

Distance: 1m 4.23f

Track: Left-handed, tight, flat

Ground: Polytrack (standard)

 

Analysis:

French Mannequin has run here twice this year and won both times. The last time was with Neil Callan on board and he takes over again today. The mare has to have her mind made up for her and Callan proved his ability to do just that when he rode her to victory over the marathon 2m 5.4f trip here back in March. The runner-up won over the same c/d next time out and the fifth has since been very close to doing the same over today's trip.

 

Basically, it is difficult to look back and see a decent run from any of today's opposition. There are two other c/d winners in the field but one achieved that in 2002 and the other did so 18 months ago in a seller. Hardly the sort of rivals that French Mannequin should be frightened of, seeing that she has won in this grade twice this year, including over this c/d and with this rider.

 

With such a versatile runner in terms of distance it is sometimes difficult to establish a best trip. However, in terms of speed figures, which are a very good guide on Polytrack, French Mannequin's best effort in her last eleven runs was when winning over c/d with Callan on board.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

FRENCH MANNEQUIN WON 4/7

 

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Saturday 9 July 2005

 

Nottingham 3.45

4. NEVERLETME GO

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 0-85 Handicap (Class 4)

Distance: 5.06f

Track: Straight, galloping, fairly flat

Ground: Good-firm (good places)

 

Analysis:

Sprinters in form are always worth a serious look, especially when they have conditions in their favour, and, having won over this trip on another galloping track with fast ground just last month, there doesn't seem to be any reason why Neverletme Go can't do so again.

 

That win came in a maiden on her seasonal reappearance at Doncaster, and the form of the race has worked out well. The runner-up won next time out and the fourth and sixth only just failed to do so. Even the 100/1 shot who came tenth has since won a low grade affair.

 

Neverletme Go followed up that success by performing even better on her handicap debut, back at Doncaster again, just a week later. She was beaten only a head by Pivotal's Princess in today's grade and that progressive sprinter has since completed a hat-trick of wins. Seeing that Neverletme Go missed the break that day it was an excellent effort because she improved her speed figure markedly from the week before, over the same c/d and with the same fast surface. In fact, she has improved her speed figure with every run of her career so far.

 

She obviously excels on a straight galloping track with fast ground, so this looks the ideal opportunity for her to put another win on the board. Geoff Wragg has easily the top strike rate here and he has booked Chris Cattlin, who rides very rarely for the yard, but who has won here more than twice as often as any of the others.

 

Wragg sends just the one runner to Nottingham today, for what is the top prize on the card. With a full set of conditions in her favour, his filly must have a fine chance of landing it.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

NEVERLETME GO WON 4/6

 

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Friday 8 July 2005

 

Wolverhampton 4.40

3. LADY ALGARHOUD

Stake: 3 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 0-70 3yo Handicap (Class 5)

Distance: 5.98f

Track: Left-handed, tight, flat

Ground: Polytrack (standard)

 

Analysis:

Sprinters in form are always worth a serious look, especially when they have conditions in their favour, and, having won over this c/d just last month, there doesn't seem to be any reason why Lady Algarhoud can't do so again.

 

In fact, she has visited the track on a total of three occasions this year and won each time. In contrast, there are no other previous course winners in the field, which consists mostly of out-of-form sprinters. Apart from Lady Algarhoud, none of them can even boast a placed effort on either of their last two runs. Only one of them, apart from Lady Algarhoud, has ever won over the trip before and half of them aren't proven on the track.

 

Lady Algarhoud was claimed out of Gay Kellaway's yard following her c/d win last time out, but she has gone to a stable that specialises in sprinters. The filly's prominent style of running has served her well on each of her three previous visits. She has shown the speed to win at 5f from an outside draw as well as the additional stamina to win over today's 6f trip, which she did with a career-best speed figure last month.

 

Shane Kelly is one of the top track riders here and this is an eye-catching booking because I'm fairly sure that he has never ridden for Dean Ivory before.

 

Steve Jones

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LADY ALGARHOUD WON 2/1

 

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Thursday 7 July 2005

 

Folkestone 4.00

7. MILLINSKY

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 0-70 Handicap (Class 5)

Distance: 5f

Track: Straight, undulating, uphill finish

Ground: Good (good-firm places)

 

Analysis:

Sprinters in form are always worth a serious look, especially when they have conditions in their favour, and, having won over this c/d just last month, there doesn't seem to be any reason why Millinsky can't do so again.

 

Having won under today's rider last time out from a mark of 65, she now runs from just 61. That last run was an apprentices' handicap in today's grade at Newbury and she won comfortably by a couple of lengths, so she looks very well in at the weights today, a factor which deserves consideration on this mainly uphill track.

 

Her career-best speed figure was recorded in a maiden over this c/d last month, when she handled the contours really well and ran on stoutly up the final hill. The ground was similar to today's too, so she has a full set of conditions in her favour once more.

 

This yard specialise in sprinters and get the vast majority of winners in this sort of race. The rider being able to claim an additional 7lbs when he has already won on the filly is another thing in Millinsky's favour, as is the fact that she is drawn right next door to her main market rival.

 

Steve Jones

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MILLINSKY WON 13/8

 

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Wednesday 6 July 2005

 

Newmarket 3.05

4. GAMUT

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Group 2 Stakes (Class 1)

Distance: 1m 4f

Track: Right-handed, galloping, uphill finish

Ground: Good

 

Analysis:

Class plays its part in Group races more than at any other level. Group races are only ever won by Group-class horses. Runners that have looked useful and performed consistently well in top-level handicaps and Listed contests tend to come unstuck when they meet true Group performers.

 

Only two of these six runners have won at the highest level before. Millenary won the St Leger way back in 2000 but Gamut progressed from his Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes win, in May of last year, to take the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud just two months later, producing the finest performance of his career.

 

Small fields don't bother him because he is so tactically versatile. The only thing that does seem to take the edge off him is very fast ground, which was the reason for his defeat in the Hardwicke Stakes last month. Today's surface is much more suitable and he has never finished out of the first three in seven runs on either good or good-soft ground.

 

This is the first time Gamut has had his ground since landing his Group 1 in France almost a year ago to the day. Regular partner Kieren Fallon rides again and the stage looks set for the partnership to show the sort of class that could prove too much for today's opposition.

 

Steve Jones

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GAMUT WON 2/1

 

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Tuesday 5 July 2005

 

Newmarket 3.05

3. SOVIET SONG

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Group 1 Stakes (Class 1)

Distance: 1m

Track: Straight, galloping, uphill finish

Ground: Good

 

Analysis:

All the reports from Newmarket suggest that Soviet Song has been working really well since her seasonal debut at the Royal Ascot meeting at York last month. After an interrupted preparation she was in need of that outing, in which she finished third in the Windsor Forest Stakes.

 

In the same way, she needed her first run last year too, when she was beaten in the Queen Anne, but she followed that up when, in peak form, she took this event in great style, ending the eight-race unbeaten run of Attraction, who she beat again later in the year.

 

The winner of no less than four Group 1 events, Soviet Song is undoubtedly a top-class performer, who, when at her best, takes a great deal of beating. The fact that she has never won on her seasonal debut since her first racecourse appearance tends to put much less emphasis on her defeat at York, and reports are much more positive for today.

 

She runs off level weights with the two that finished in front of her at York, to whom she conceded 5lbs. They had both already had a run this season too, so the tables are turned in favour of Soviet Song in more ways than one this time.

 

In what could be a tactical race, it is worth noting that Soviet Song has previously run in three Group events containing seven runners or less, and won them all.

 

Steve Jones

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SOVIET SONG WON 7/4

 

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Monday 4 July 2005

 

Musselburgh 4.00

7. SENOR BOND

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Selling Stakes (Class 6)

Distance: 1m

Track: Right-handed, tight, flat

Ground: Good-firm

 

Analysis:

Bryan Smart, who does well at this venue, drops Senor Bond into selling class for the first time, as well as dropping him back down to his best trip on a surface that suits ideally.

 

The best piece of recent form on offer here belongs to Smart's gelding, who was a staying-on fourth, beaten just a length, behind Sarraaf and course specialist Ballyhurry over 7f on fast ground here back in May. That was in a Class 5 handicap and Ballyhurry has since landed his fourth course win by taking a Class 5 stakes event over today's c/d.

 

Senor Bond closed to within a length of the two principals over the shorter trip that day, and a repeat of that run over a furlong further would easily be good enough for him to land a much weaker race with Fergal Lynch on board once more.

 

His nearest rival in the official ratings, Neven, hasn't won for two and a half years, which demonstrates the overall weakness of this event. Senor Bond is rated 12lbs superior to Neven yet runs off level weights today. The winner of this race last year was also top on official ratings.

 

Bryan Smart has recorded three winners here already this season, which is more than all these other yards put together.

 

Steve Jones

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SENOR BOND WON 11/8

 

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Monday 27 June 2005

 

Musselburgh 9.25

6. PLATINUM CHARMER

Stake: 3 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 0-55 Handicap (Class 6)

Distance: 1m 4f

Track: Right-handed, tight, flat

Ground: Good-firm

 

Analysis:

Platinum Charmer runs from a mark 7lbs higher than when winning over c/d, on similarly fast ground, and with today's rider in the saddle, just a week ago. However, on a tight track like this, the additional weight serves mainly to hold the horse into the bends rather than to slow it down. Additional weight only becomes a problem when a horse gets into a protracted gallop or runs up a hill, neither of which apply today. In any case, Platinum Charmer won from a mark of 55 last August, again on a tight track, over today's trip and on fast ground. In fact, he also won from 58 earlier last year, once more over this c/d.

 

Six of Platinum Charmer's seven career wins have come on tight tracks. The last four have all come on fast ground and five of the last six have come at or around today's 12f trip. Two of his last three wins have come with today's rider on board and, in three appearances here, he has won twice and been beaten just a length on the other occasion.

 

Platinum Charmer's current run of three wins in the last fortnight compares very favourably with the rest of today's field. Only three of the thirteen have managed a place on either of their last two outings. With yet another set of ideal conditions, Karl Burke's gelding could well extend his successful sequence.

 

Steve Jones

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PLATINUM CHARMER WON 5/4

 

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Saturday 25 June 2005

 

Lingfield 8.05

4. DISTANT COUSIN

Stake: 3 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Selling Stakes (Class 6)

Distance: 1m 4f

Track: Left-handed, tight, undulating

Ground: Polytrack (standard)

 

Analysis:

Distant Cousin is one of only two previous c/d winners in this poor seller and his run here last Saturday entitles him to hold a big chance today. He finished 2nd/9, beaten just a head on the line, with six lengths back to the third. With the same rider on board again today, a repeat of what was Distant Cousin's best speed figure since 2002 would be enough to get him home in front. Richard Kingscote rides this track well and is very good value for his 7lbs claim, given that he has easily the best strike rate of the jockeys on the leading contenders.

 

Main market rival Ezz Elkheil is a notoriously difficult ride who has won only once before in his life, and that was on turf. The fact that he is the principal market rival shows how poor this race is.

 

Distant Cousin, who has won three times at this trip and stays further, retains the cheekpieces he wore for only the second time last week. They seemed to suit his style of running and a repeat of the tactics whereby he took up the running fully five furlongs out, in order to make it a test of stamina, looks likely. He has four all-weather wins to his name in all, two of which came on this track, and he could prove too strong for these rivals in the closing stages.

 

Steve Jones

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DISTANT COUSIN WON 5/2

 

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Thursday 23 June 2005

 

Thirsk 4.00

1. CHARLOTTE VALE

Stake: 3 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 0-70 Fillies' Handicap (Class 5)

Distance: 1m 4f

Track: Left-handed, tight, slightly undulating

Ground: Good-firm

 

Analysis:

There is no reason why Charlotte Vale, the winner of this race last year, can't repeat the victory from a 5lbs higher mark on this tight track. We have proved many times over the years that the effect of additional weight on tight tracks serves mainly to hold the horse into the bends rather than to slow it down. Additional weight only becomes a problem when a runner gets into a protracted gallop or runs up a hill. Neither of those apply at this venue.

 

Both of Charlotte Vale's wins have come over today's trip. In fact, her form figures in five runs over the distance are: 1, 1, 2, 3, 2, and she has never been beaten by as much as two lengths over what is obviously her optimum trip. Even more significant, in terms of weight, is the fact that her three narrow defeats over 12f all came on tracks with a stiff uphill finish and during the time that her handicap mark had risen because of her two earlier wins. That is in line with the earlier comments on additional weight.

 

Back on an easy track and reunited with Tony Culhane, who rode her to her last victory, Charlotte Vale has a lot in her favour in her bid to repeat last year's win. She has won on fast ground before and should be staying on strongly in the closing stages.

 

Steve Jones

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CHARLOTTE VALE WON 2/1

 

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Wednesday 22 June 2005

 

Salisbury 2.40

1. ABIDE

Stake: 3 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 3yo Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Class 5)

Distance: 6.96f

Track: Straight, galloping, uphill finish

Ground: Good-firm

 

Analysis:

Abide has been a beaten favourite on two of her last three appearances and is a little unfortunate to still be a maiden. There are few places where Richard Hannon enjoys winning more than here, and the trainer will be determined to put that right today.

 

Abide's last run was over a mile on this track. It came in an eighteen-runner maiden which was won by John Dunlop's highly-regarded filly Teeba, who is entered in the Sussex Stakes next month. There were three lengths back to the others but, without Teeba in the race, Abide would have finished second of seventeen, beaten just over a length.

 

That form looks good in the context of today's much less competitive event and the drop back to 7f shouldn't be a problem. In fact, it could well be a good move because two of Abide's best three speed figures have come over this trip.

 

Abide has run well when racing prominently and she is certain to stay, so Richard Hughes may well decide to try and make all the running, gradually building up speed going up the hill. Hughes knows the filly really well and there are few better judges of pace. He is the top rider on this track and will know exactly what is required here.

 

Abide has been beaten by some impressive rivals from top yards during her career and this is her best chance for some time.

 

Steve Jones

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ABIDE WON 6/4

 

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Tuesday 21 June 2005

 

Beverley 3.15

4. OLDENWAY

Stake: 3 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 0-85 Handicap (Class 4)

Distance: 1m 1.94f

Track: Right-handed, stiff, uphill finish

Ground: Good-firm (good places)

 

Analysis:

Oldenway was well-fancied to win a class 4 handicap at Ripon on Monday night but was pulled out because the ground conditions had deteriorated. Fortunately, his trainer had also entered him in two other handicaps this week, at both Beverley and Newcastle. This looks the easier of the two and there are no ground problems for him to worry about here.

 

This is certainly Oldenway's time of the year. He won a class 4 handicap over this c/d in June last season from a mark of 72. He ran second in another class 4 handicap over c/d in June of the previous year from a mark of 73. He had also taken a class 4 handicap at Chester in the June before that.

 

Today he runs off 70 and, judging by his last run, he is reaching his peak at the same time once again. His last two wins have both come on tracks with an uphill finish. This trip on a stiff track suits him ideally because he stays a couple of furlongs further on an easy track.

 

Four of his five wins have come when Paul Hanagan has been in the saddle and, going by the way he has been heavily backed on his last two runs, he is ready to win again. All his wins have come on either good or good-firm ground and four of the five have come in either June or July.

 

Trainer, rider, and horse all have fine records at this venue and Oldenway has a lot going for him today.

 

Steve Jones

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OLDENWAY WON 13/8

 

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Tuesday 14 June 2005

 

Carlisle 2.50

1. ARTURIUS

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 3yo Maiden Stakes (Class 5)

Distance: 1m 1.28f

Track: Right-handed, stiff, undulating, uphill finish

Ground: Good-soft (good places, soft places)

 

Analysis:

As we would expect at this time of the year, Sir Michael Stoute's yard is going really well. Most of his attention over the next few days will be focussed on the Royal Ascot meeting at York but he has a couple of northern raids planned also, one of which is with the promising colt Arturius.

 

It is rare to see Stoute runners at this venue. He's only sent four in the last five years and none at all since 2003. Of the four he has sent on the 340-mile round trip, two have won, and this is the only one he sends today.

 

This stiff right-handed track, with its uphill finish, should suit Arturius ideally because his last run came over 10f at Sandown, which has a very similar configuration. The last half mile at Sandown is uphill, as are the last five furlongs here, and Arturius, though he ran green, was staying on really well at the finish. That was his seasonal debut and only his second-ever run, so a good deal of improvement can be expected.

 

The runner who finished seventh at Sandown, over three lengths behind Arturius, came out to win a similar race at the same venue last Saturday. The fifth home on Saturday was rated 83, which stands Arturius in good stead in the context of today's race because his main market rival here is rated 81.

 

Jockey Nicky Mackay has the top strike rate here and this underestimated rider has an extremely impressive 53% strike rate for Stoute over the last three seasons.

 

Steve Jones

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ARTURIUS WON 10/11

 

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Monday 13 June 2005

 

Warwick 7.15

3. AWASH

Stake: 3 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Maiden Stakes (Class 5)

Distance: 1m 4.61f

Track: Left-handed, tight, undulating

Ground: Good-firm

 

Analysis:

There were only five runners in this event last year and it was won by a 3yo who had put in a promising run the previous month. The same thing could well happen this year with Henry Cecil's Awash looking to have the right credentials following his debut fourth in a Newbury maiden a month ago.

 

That came over 10f, on similarly fast ground, and the winner, Wild Savannah, has since run a close second in a class 2 handicap over today's trip at Haydock. Awash can be expected to improve quite a bit for that experience and the step up in trip should suit him well. His half-brother, Grand Bay, has won twice over 12f in France during the last couple of months.

 

Henry Cecil does extremely well with All At Sea's progeny. He has handled five of the best six of that sire's offspring, including Akimbo, who won for him earlier this month. Interestingly, four of those five won one of their first two career starts, with three of them winning on their second outing following a promising debut.

 

Both Cecil and jockey Ted Durcan are top of their respective performance tables for this track and Durcan was the rider chosen to partner Akimbo to victory a couple of weeks ago. That was his one and only ride for owner Khalid Abdullah and the partnership can retain their 100% record with success here.

 

Awash takes up this engagement in preference to the other two maidens for which he is also entered later in the week and he is Cecil's only runner anywhere today.

 

Steve Jones

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AWASH WON 11/10

 

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Saturday 11 June 2005

 

Bath 2.10

1. HOT

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 2yo Novice Stakes (Class 5)

Distance: 5.05f

Track: Left-hand dog-leg, uphill

Ground: Firm

 

Analysis:

After two disappointing runs on heavy ground, Hot finally got a faster surface at Leicester last Monday and the improvement was dramatic. The colt broke smartly and made all the running to comfortably land a maiden over today's trip.

 

He was running on well in the final stages and is obviously happy on an uphill sprint track, so these conditions should be ideal. The runner-up at Leicester, Barry Hills' Mr Sandicliffe, is entered in some valuable sprints later in the season so the form looks useful.

 

Main market rival Violette is up in class and down in trip, which is not normally an ideal combination, though her yard are going well at present. She also has faster ground than she had when winning on her debut, over three quarters of a furlong further, here on Sunday.

 

The other runners have wins in modest company to their names but the form of Hot's last run is the best on offer, and so is the speed figure he recorded in winning it. Under very similar conditions he is likely to progress further. His entries show that he is highly regarded and he should prove difficult to beat here, especially if he gets an easy lead.

 

Steve Jones

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HOT WON 5/4

 

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Friday 10 June 2005

 

Sandown 2.35

2. TRINCULO

Stake: 3 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Claiming Stakes (Class 5)

Distance: 5.03f

Track: Straight, uphill

Ground: Good-firm

 

Analysis:

The stalls are on the far side for this uphill sprint, which means that Dandy Nicholls' representative, Trinculo, is drawn right against the rail in stall seven. That was the place to be on similar ground last year, as the first and second home were drawn in stalls seven and eight in the field of eight runners.

 

Nicholls had the third home last year but he has a fine record when bringing his older sprinters on the 470-mile round trip from Yorkshire. He has easily the best track record of the yards in this race and Trinculo is in the sort of form to improve further on that record.

 

As successes at both Leicester and at Newcastle last time out show, he loves an uphill sprint. His last two wins came in claimers and, crucially, he has the good early pace to take advantage of his rails draw. At Newcastle last week he was away and gone, taking care of thirteen rivals up the hill for an all-the-way success over today's trip. That will be the plan again here, and he should prove difficult to peg back up the hill if gets his own way in front once more.

 

Main market rival Red Sovereign is drawn right next door and will also be challenging for the early lead. However, she has weakened in uphill finishes before, including over c/d last week, and Trinculo's ability over 6f could well give him the strength required in the final stages.

 

Steve Jones

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TRINCULO WON 11/4

 

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Thursday 9 June 2005

 

Wolverhampton 5.00

2. FULLANDBY

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 3yo Auction Maiden Stakes (Class 6)

Distance: 7.15f

Track: Left-handed, tight, flat

Ground: Polytrack (standard)

 

Analysis:

Seven furlongs is something of a specialists' distance and it is also a trip often used for experimentation purposes with poor sprinters and milers, with trainers stepping them either up or down in distance to see whether there is any improvement. However, horses who are proven at this trip normally come out on top, and there are only two runners in this field of whom that can be said.

 

Interestingly, those two runners, Fullandby and Highest Regard, also happen to be the only two in the field proven at this Polytrack venue.

 

Highest Regard has a long absence to overcome, as well as the outside draw, and he finished well behind Fullandby when the pair met over c/d on their racecourse debuts last October. They have both shown some useful form here since then, with Fullandby doing so in a higher grade than Highest Regard.

 

Fullandby, who is in good form at the moment, probably has his best chance yet. He has a full set of conditions in his favour as well as better overall and recent form than the only other runner to be proven under these conditions.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

FULLANDBY WON 4/5

 

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Thursday 26 May 2005

 

Newton Abbot 3.40

5. MISS LEHMAN

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 0-105 Handicap Hurdle (Class E)

Distance: 2m 1f

Track: Left-handed, tight, flat

Ground: Soft (good-soft places)

 

Analysis:

Rider Sarah Gaisford may be a bit of an unknown quantity in many parts but that is not the case at Newton Abbot, where she has by far the top strike rate of any of the jockeys in this low grade event. Her c/d win on Miss Lehman last week was her second victory of the year from only two rides.

 

Miss Lehman suffered from breathing problems last year but her new trainer Jimmy Frost has got her in good shape now. She made her seasonal debut, which was her first run for the yard, at Ludlow in February, when she was in with every chance before a mistake three out, from which she couldn't recover. That was a useful effort on similar ground to today's, proving that she handles a bit of give.

 

She built on that promising return to action when easily taking a handicap hurdle here last Monday. Held up early, her capable rider made her move three out as the leaders began to tire. She took up the running at the second last and quickly went clear to win easily.

 

A 7lbs penalty on this tight track shouldn't affect her chance of following up. Delaware likes to front-run and could help to make this a fast early pace for Miss Lehman to follow, as last week's leader did. That would be ideal, and would see her in with a big chance of repeating her recent success.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

MISS LEHMAN WON 11/8

 

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Tuesday 24 May 2005

 

Sedgefield 8.15

4. LUTIN DU MOULIN

Stake: 2 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 0-105 Novices' Handicap Hurdle (Class E)

Distance: 2m 5.5f

Track: Left-handed, stiff, undulating

Ground: Good (Good-firm places)

 

Analysis:

Trainer Len Lungo has recorded more than twice as many winners on this track as all the others put together and he can increase his total further with his recent scorer Lutin Du Moulin, both of whose wins have come with a combination of three factors: a quick reappearance, good or faster ground and the application of headgear. He has all those factors in place again today as well as being a c/d winner on his last outing.

 

That last win, under today's rider Tony Dobbin, came just last Wednesday when he outstayed a dozen rivals by seven lengths or more. The stiff track suited him well and the fact that the runner-up had finished second in higher grade on his previous outing makes the form look solid.

 

Two of today's rivals, Sikasso and Nifty Roy, have both scored over this c/d in the last few weeks but the time recorded by Lutin Du Moulin when winning over c/d last week was over four seconds faster than the best time of that pair with no significant ground difference, and Dobbin has a big edge on the riders of the other two around this circuit.

 

Steve Jones

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LUTIN DU MOULIN WON 6/5

 

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Monday 23 May 2005

 

Thirsk 9.00

3. SHRINK

Stake: 3 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 0-70 Fillies' Handicap (Class 5)

Distance: 5f

Track: Straight, slightly undulating

Ground: Good-firm (good places)

 

Analysis:

There has always been plenty of discussion regarding what is known as the 'bounce factor', or the tendency for some horses to run really well after a long absence and then follow up with a below-par effort next time. If Shrink doesn't fall foul of the bounce factor this evening she is going to prove very difficult to beat. The stake of three points reflects that possibility but it is encouraging to see that she ran a fine race on her seasonal debut last year, after six months off the track, and then followed up with an even better one.

 

The way that Shrink, who is currently in foal, won a handicap at Newcastle over this trip last Thursday was certainly impressive. Today's rider could even afford to ease her down in the final furlong because she had so much in hand of the other fourteen runners.

 

Trainer Michael Dods specialises in sprinters and this was Shrink's first run for him after being with Michael Bell since the start of her career. Bell had been experimenting with blinkers and a tongue-tie but Dods dispensed with those and dropped the filly back down to the minimum trip. Those tactics paid off handsomely and a sprinter hitting form is usually worth following. Having already run well on this track last season, Shrink has all the right conditions as well as her excellent current form in her favour.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

SHRINK WON 11/8

 

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Saturday 14 May 2005

 

Newbury 2.40

10. RAKTI

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Group 1 Stakes (Class 1)

Distance: 1m

Track: Straight, galloping, mainly flat

Ground: Good-firm (firm places)

 

Analysis:

There is no rain forecast for Newbury and the best horse in the race over a straight mile on fast ground in Rakti.

 

He has won first time out for the last three consecutive years and six of his last seven wins have come on good or faster ground. His last four wins have all been Group 1 successes and it is rare for a race of this nature to be won by a horse who is not a previous winner in Group class. Rakti is the only runner in the race to have recorded a Group 1 win in this country and he has achieved that feat three times. The race was won last year by Russian Rhythm, who had also previously won three Group 1 events in this country.

 

The fact that Rakti has won at the highest level over 10f as well as at a mile means that he will very probably be ridden prominently, as he was in the QEII at Ascot last September. If anything, that will avoid the need for him to be forcibly held up and he should therefore be allowed to run freely, which will avoid him pulling hard early.

 

There are a few in this field that are likely to try to make this a fast pace and that will suit Rakti particularly well. Drawn right in the middle, he will be able to track the early pace before making his move a couple of furlongs out. His acceleration from off a fast pace is electric on this sort of ground and he is unbeaten in this country on a fast surface for almost two years.

 

Steve Jones

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RAKTI WON 7/4

 

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Thursday 12 May 2005

 

Salisbury 2.40

4. ASAWER

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Class 5)

Distance: 1m 2f

Track: Right-handed, galloping, uphill finish

Ground: Good-firm

 

Analysis:

Sir Michael Stoute won this race last year with Quiff, a filly who was making her seasonal debut and stepping up in trip after one run at the back end of the previous season in which she was beaten three lengths over a mile.

 

His representative today, Asawer, has major similarities to Quiff at this stage of her career, in that she made her debut over 7f at Newmarket last October and was beaten three lengths. Given that she was a very expensive purchase, Stoute could have visions of her following in the footsteps of Quiff, who went on to become a top Group 1 performer over middle distances.

 

Asawer is by Darshaan, who won the French Derby and whose progeny tend to progress really well from two to three. Interestingly, Darshaan's four top-rated offspring of last season all won on their second runs, two of them over 10f and two of them on fast ground, after being stepped up in trip following debuts over shorter.

 

Stoute has won four 3yo maidens in recent days and the yard look in good shape. The month of May is traditionally very productive for him and two of the four 3yos that he sent here last year won. Richard Hills rode Asawer on her debut and knows her well. He also has the top strike rate of the riders on this track.

 

Steve Jones

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ASAWER WON 5/2

 

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Monday 9 May 2005

 

Southwell 4.25

4. MISS BEAR

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 0-45 3yo Banded Stakes (Class 7)

Distance: 1m 3f

Track: Left-handed, tight, flat

Ground: Fibresand (standard)

 

Analysis:

Miss Bear is the only one in this low grade event to be already proven on Fibresand, having finished second in a handicap here on her latest outing. That came over the longer 12f trip and the way she ran gave the impression that this drop back to 11f would prove to be just about ideal. Not only that, but she drops down in class today too.

 

The winner of that last race already had some decent all-weather form and the third had won here before, so Miss Bear's effort was pretty good under the circumstances. It was her first attempt at middle distances and she looks sure to come on again for it.

 

Trainer Bryan Smart has the best Fibresand record in the race and his success rate on the surface is at its highest when he uses today's rider, Fergal Lynch. Miss Bear is the yard's only representative at the track today, and she was originally entered in both this event and the 12f race for older horses at 3.50. This looks the easier opportunity of the two, not least because half the field in the earlier event are already proven on the surface. There is also a likely Martin Pipe improver in the 3.50 which Smart would probably prefer to avoid given the choice.

 

A repetition of the speed figure that Miss Bear recorded here last time would probably be good enough to take this, but, rather than a repetition, Smart will be expecting his filly to improve again for that run.

 

Steve Jones

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MISS BEAR WON 13/8

 

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Saturday 7 May 2005

 

Warwick 8.20

5. SILENCE REIGNS

Stake: 3 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Hunters' Chase (Class H)

Distance: 2m 4.5f

Track: Left-handed, tight

Ground: Good (good-firm places)

 

Analysis:

Speed, rather than stamina is the strong point of Silence Reigns, so this tight track should suit him much better than either Exeter or Newbury, where Paul Nicholls' gelding was a beaten favourite on his last two runs. Both were hunters' chases and he finished second and third after travelling well for most of the way before tiring in the final stages.

 

His latest win, back in February, came at Bangor, another tight left-handed track like this one, and it also came in a hunters' chase over today's trip, so Nicholls has obviously decided to duplicate Silence Reigns' last winning conditions in an attempt to get him back into the winners' enclosure.

 

The yard has a 37% strike rate in chases on this track and today's rider is one of only three in this race to have won here before.

 

Main market rival An Capall Dubh looks as though he may prefer further than this trip and hasn't won since taking a maiden hunters' chase over three miles in Ireland more than two years ago.

 

Silence Reigns, formerly a graded class hurdler, was well fancied for last year's Fox Hunters' Chase at Aintree before being brought down. He is obviously still well capable of taking an event like this and these conditions should give him a fine chance.

 

Steve Jones

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SILENCE REIGNS WON 5/2

 

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Friday 6 May 2005

 

Chester 4.10

3. BELLY DANCER

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 3yo Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Class 4)

Distance: 7f

Track: Left-handed, very tight, flat

Ground: Good-soft

 

Analysis:

With her main market rival drawn on the wide outside, Paul Cole's Belly Dancer has a fine chance to break her unlucky sequence of six consecutive placed efforts in this moderate fillies' maiden.

 

She has plenty of early speed, which is ideal for this tight circuit, and the forceful riding of Fallon, who partners her for the first time today, could be enough to keep her in front the whole way.

 

Her main rival in the tissues is John Gosden's Almost Innocent, who has a Coronation Stakes entry at York next month. This is her first experience of a racecourse though, and should she start slowly from the outside stall she may find it very difficult to make up the lost ground on the much more experienced Belly Dancer around these tight bends.

 

Last time out, over today's trip on the much more demanding track at Newmarket, Belly Dancer led her fourteen rivals until the dying strides, eventually finishing second but five lengths clear of the remainder. This is her best trip and she has previous experience of tight tracks, having been placed twice at both Lingfield and Wolverhampton. She should have every chance of staying in front on this short run-in today.

 

Steve Jones

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BELLY DANCER WON 6/5

 

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Thursday 5 May 2005

 

Folkestone 5.00

12. MISS THE BOAT

Stake: 3 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Auction Maiden Stakes (Class 6)

Distance: 1m 1.68f

Track: Right-handed, tight, undulating, uphill finish

Ground: Soft (good-soft places)

 

Analysis:

John Dunlop sends just the one runner to Folkestone for a lowly Class 6 auction maiden stakes, so his filly Miss The Boat must be worth a closer look on that fact alone. On further inspection, it is unsurprising to find that she has the credentials required to win the contest on her seasonal debut.

 

Miss The Boat made her career debut in a decent maiden, run over 7f at Salisbury last September. She wasn't well supported against representatives from many of the top stables but she ran a fine race to finish second of the fifteen runners, well clear of much more fancied fillies from the likes of the Godolphin and Stoute yards. The winner of the race had the benefit of previous experience and Miss The Boat stuck to her task in promising style.

 

Her sire, Mtoto, was top class at around today's trip and his progeny tend to progress very well, so the step up in trip, combined with the benefit of her debut experience, should bring about plenty of improvement in Miss The Boat. One of Mtoto's best performers last year was Coroner, who has won a Group race in France on soft ground, so today's surface shouldn't be a problem either.

 

Miss The Boat could well emulate her dam, Missed Again, who was placed over 7f as a 2yo before winning over 10f as a 3yo. She too had a strong stamina influence, being by Derby winner Shirley Heights (who was also trained by Dunlop).

 

Steve Jones

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MISS THE BOAT WON

 

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Wednesday 4 May 2005

 

Chester 4.10

4. RIVER KINTYRE

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 2yo Maiden Stakes (Class 3)

Distance: 5.07f

Track: Left-handed, very tight, flat

Ground: Good-soft

 

Analysis:

Barry Hills makes no secret of the fact that he loves this meeting and the careful preparation he puts into place ahead of it has paid off with plenty of winners over the years. His 2yos have provided his best return over the last five years with 12 of the 24 winning, which is an excellent achievement at a meeting which is so competitive.

 

This five furlongs is run almost continually on the turn and the stalls are on the inside. The lower numbers are the stalls to be in, and the top half of the draw in a field of this size will have a lot on their plate to say the least. Barry Hills' representative, River Kintyre, is berthed nicely in stall five and also has the benefit of previous experience.

 

The advantage of a low draw is lost with a slow start so the fact that River Kintyre ran so prominently all the way on his debut run at Doncaster is a big positive. He finished 4th/18 that day and the three that finished in front of him all had previous runs under their belt. Under those circumstances, it was a very promising first run by Hills' colt and this meeting must have immediately entered into his mind after the race.

 

Michael Hills partners the colt again today and no rider had a better record than his 32% (9/28) here last year. Of that total, three winners came from the six 2yos he rode.

 

All the runners drawn on his inside are making their first racecourse visits today, so there has to be a fine chance for River Kintyre to gain a good early position before bringing his experience into play in the closing stages. It also helps that his main market rival is drawn way out in stall 14.

 

Steve Jones

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RIVER KINTYRE WON 6/5

 

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Monday 2 May 2005

 

Warwick 2.20

1. ADEJE PARK

Stake: 3 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Class 5)

Distance: 5f

Track: Left-hand dog-leg, undulating

Ground: Good (good-soft places)

 

Analysis:

Only three of these nine fillies have ever seen a racecourse before and, of those, the best piece of form was recorded by Peter Chapple-Hyam's Adeje Park, who was well backed on her debut at Newmarket three weeks ago before running 5th/13 behind Mick Channon's Flashy Wings, who is entered in the Weatherby's Super Sprint at Newbury in July. The runner-up in that race was Ocean's Apart, who subsequently ran third at Haydock, just behind Salut D'Amour, who won easily in this grade yesterday to boost the form.

 

The fact that Adeje Park was well backed on her debut indicated that she was expected to go well and, had she not been eased when her chance had gone, she would have finished much closer. This looks an easier task and the experience she gained at Newmarket will stand her in good stead today. This choice of venue looks promising with Chapple-Hyam having recorded a 40% strike rate here (4/10) over the last five seasons. His only runner here so far this year also won.

 

This less demanding track should suit Adeje Park ideally because she has lots of early speed, having chased the leader at Newmarket for most of the way before running out of steam up the hill. There is no hill here and a prominent position coming around the dog-leg will give her a fine chance to open her account against these inexperienced opponents.

 

Steve Jones

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ADEJE PARK WON 13/8

 

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Friday 29 April 2005

 

Southwell 4.30

5. KINGS CASTLE

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Selling Hurdle (Class G)

Distance: 2m 5.5f

Track: Left-handed, tight, flat

Ground: Good (good-firm places)

 

Analysis:

It is very interesting that Andrew Thornton, the top jockey at this track, keeps the ride on Kings Castle because, when he partnered the gelding to a fine 3rd/10 in a Class D handicap hurdle last time out, that was the only ride he had for Ron Hodges all season and it was only the fourth in the last five years.

 

This is a big drop in class from that last run at Newton Abbot and the trainer keeps to the same distance again, following a couple of placed efforts over shorter trips. For a 10yo, Kings Castle has been very lightly raced and was competing in Graded company at one time. The fact that he was able to run into a place in Class D three weeks ago indicates that he is well capable of picking up a race like this, especially over this trip and on a tight left-handed track which is similar in nature to his last two winning venues and also to the scene of his last run.

 

It is very rare to see Hodges make the long journey here and maybe Thornton had some input into the decision following the race at Newton Abbot. This set of conditions is as near as connections could have got to being identical to Kings Castle's last run, except that the standard of the opposition is a lot lower.

 

Ron Hodges has trained Kings Castle for the whole of the gelding's career and these days he owns him too. He obviously believes there is at least one more win in him yet and there won't be too many better chances than this.

 

Steve Jones

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KINGS CASTLE WON 13/8

 

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Wednesday 27 April 2005

 

Lingfield 3.40

2. ANDRONIKOS

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 3yo Listed Stakes (Class 1)

Distance: 6f

Track: Straight, undulating, downhill start

Ground: Good-soft

 

Analysis:

Back down in trip and dropped back into Listed class, these conditions look ideal for Paul Cole's Andronikos. He has run twice over this 6f trip, in Listed company and with give in the ground, and has won comfortably both times.

 

His last run can largely be ignored for form purposes because he was stepped up to 7f for the first time on his seasonal debut, upped in class to Group 3 and fitted with a tongue tie for the first time (which is left off as normal today). The one plus point from his last run was that Frankie Dettori, who rides today and has a 50% strike rate on 3yos at this track, was given the chance to get to know him.

 

Andronikos is normally held up early before using his impressive turn of foot to good effect in the closing stages. Dettori will no doubt ensure that he isn't held up as far back as he has been on occasions previously because this is a faster track than most he has encountered and he will need to keep tabs on the leaders down the hill from the start. That shouldn't be a problem in this grade because similar tactics were needed in the Gimcrack at York last year and he coped admirably in finishing second in that Group 2 event, which was only the second run of his career. On the climb to the finish, he should have the chance to show his power, as he did when easily collecting similar prize money to this on soft ground at both Doncaster and Saint-Cloud last season.

 

Steve Jones

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ANDRONIKOS WON 13/8

 

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Tuesday 26 April 2005

 

Warwick 7.40

8. INDUSTRIAL SPIRIT

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 3yo Maiden Stakes (Class 5)

Distance: 1m 0.1f

Track: Left-handed, tight, undulating

Ground: Good (good-soft places)

 

Analysis:

Of those to have run before, by far the best piece of form has been shown by Greg Chung's Industrial Spirit, whose 2nd/12 in Division 2 of the Wood Ditton Stakes at Newmarket a fortnight ago, was a very fine effort. The second division of that race was run in a time much faster than the first division and the only one to beat Industrial Spirit was Barry Hills' very useful-looking filly Fashionable.

 

The race attracted entries from such top yards as Sir Michael Stoute, John Dunlop, Jeremy Noseda, Ed Dunlop, John Gosden, David Loder, Marcus Tregoning and Willie Jarvis. There were a couple of Derby entries amongst them, so the colt from a comparatively unfashionable yard ran much better than a lot of people might have expected. However, Industrial Spirit impressed many paddock-watchers and did attract some modest support against the big guns, indicating that he had been well-prepared and was ready to run a fine race.

 

He is bound to come on for that high-profile experience and today's task is somewhat easier in comparison. Oscar Urbina, who rode him at Newmarket is in the saddle once again. Industrial Spirit's style of racing should be well-suited to this tight track because he likes to run prominently and is certain to get a mile here because he got it so well on the much more demanding Newmarket track. From his inside draw on this left-handed circuit he should soon be able to assume a prominent position and a fast-run race will suit his proven stamina. He was also entered in two other maidens this week and should be ready to build on his promising debut.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

INDUSTRIAL SPIRIT WON 9/4

 

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Friday 22 April 2005

 

Wolverhampton 2.10

5. MANIATIS

Stake: 2 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Selling Stakes (Class 6)

Distance: 1m 4.23f

Track: Left-handed, tight, flat

Ground: Polytrack (standard)

 

Analysis:

This a poor seller to be run on a Polytrack surface on which three of the first half dozen in the tissues are unproven, so it must represent a fine opportunity for previous c/d scorer Maniatis to add to that success.

 

His c/d win came almost exactly a year ago today, when he won by five lengths in a claimer which was of better quality than today's seller. The runner-up, Mandoob, had already won four times over c/d. The third horse had won over c/d just three days before. The fourth had already won on the track and the fifth has won over c/d since that day.

 

In contrast, there are only two other previous c/d winners in today's line-up. Their successes were in races of poorer quality than that in which Maniatis scored and they have both been well-beaten here recently.

 

Maniatis was running in Group races a couple of years ago but expert all-weather trainer Nick Littmoden, who has recorded twice as many winners here as all the others put together, knows the gelding's level these days and is shrewd at spotting opportunities like this. Maniatis had his only run so far for Littmoden a month ago, finishing a decent second over this trip on the Lingfield Polytrack. That was his first outing since last summer, so he should come on again for that, and he is in the right hands for this sort of race.

 

Rider Steven Harrison is one of only four of these ever to have won on this Polytrack surface before and he is perfectly capable of doing the business. It is also interesting to note that Maniatis wore a visor when he won here last time. It was left off for his first run for Littmoden but is back on again today.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

MANIATIS WON 8/13

 

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Saturday 16 April 2005

 

Newbury 3.45

5. INDESATCHEL

Stake: 3 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Group 3 Stakes (Class 1)

Distance: 7f

Track: Straight, galloping, fairly flat

Ground: Good-soft (soft places)

 

Analysis:

Seven furlongs is something of a specialists' trip, falling between a true sprint and a mile, and there are far fewer horses whose optimum distance is seven furlongs than there are who prefer more conventional trips. As a result, true seven furlong horses running over their correct trip are to be given the greatest respect, especially when they are competing against sprinters up in trip or milers dropped in distance.

 

Indesatchel is a true seven furlong colt. Both his wins have come over the trip and his trainer doubts that he would be anywhere near as effective over a mile. Last time out, under today's rider Jamie Spencer, he ran away with a Listed event at the Curragh. On paper the race looked competitive, as the opposition included two Group 2 runners-up, one of whom had also run third three times in Group 1, but Indesatchel ran right away from them both in the seventh furlong. The main reason being that those two opponents had achieved their higher-graded placings over 6f and a mile. Neither had 7f as an optimum trip.

 

Of today's market leaders, only Indesatchel has won over 7f before. He has won easily both times he has raced over the distance. Interestingly, of all the runners at single figure odds in the tissues, only Indesatchel has even attempted 7f before.

 

His chances are given an additional boost with the softer surface. Although he's won on good ground, his Listed win came on heavy. His main rivals not only have to step up in trip, but they also have to prove they can get the extra distance at this level and with give in the ground.

 

Indesatchel comes from the same yard as the antepost favourite for the 1,000 Guineas, Damson, and has been working well with the filly at home. This Group 3 is well within his capabilities, especially with both trip and ground being so favourable.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

INDESATCHEL WON 11/10

 

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Friday 15 April 2005

 

Ayr 4.30

4. MEPHISTO

Stake: 4 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Novices' Hurdle (Class B)

Distance: 2m 4f

Track: Left-handed, galloping, fairly flat

Ground: Good

 

Analysis:

Representing the all-conquering team of Graham Wylie, Howard Johnson and Graham Lee, Mephisto should have the class and ability to take this Class B event.

 

Mephisto, a very progressive handicapper on the flat for Luca Cumani last season, started his hurdling career by being plunged straight into a Grade 2 novices' hurdle at Cheltenham at the end of January. It took him a while to get the hang of things but his 3rd/10 behind Ambobo and Brewster, with one of today's rivals, Ladalko, over five lengths behind him, was a great debut and it was obvious there was better to come.

 

His next two races were again Grade 2 novices' events, at Haydock and Kempton, and he won them both. For his final run to date, which was just over a week ago, he was rightly made odds-on for another Grade 2 at Aintree. His third place left punters puzzled until it was revealed that he had swallowed his tongue a couple of hurdles from home, causing him to have breathing problems in the latter stages. Prior to that occurring, Graham Lee had felt he would win easily, and the fact that the eventual winner, Turpin Green, had finished way behind him at Haydock gives a great deal of justification to Lee's opinion.

 

Main market rival, Celtic Son, won four handicaps earlier in the year but was brought down to earth in Listed company at Aintree last week.

 

Mephisto is very much the class runner in the race on current form and this should provide him with a good opportunity to make up for last week's unlucky incident.

 

Steve Jones

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MEPHISTO WON 4/6

 

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Friday 8 April 2005

 

Southwell 3.30

2. OLD BAILEY

Stake: 2 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Selling Stakes (Class 6)

Distance: 6f

Track: Left-handed, tight, flat

Ground: Fibresand (standard)

 

Analysis:

David Flood has already shown how adept he is at transforming older sprinters with his exploits in taking Jonny Ebeneezer, whom he acquired as a 5yo, from selling company into Group class within three months. Interestingly, Jonny Ebeneezer's very first win for Flood came in a low-grade affair over this c/d.

 

The handler could well have aspirations of following the same sort of path with Old Bailey, whom he has recently acquired, also as a 5yo sprinter. He may well have a head start with Old Bailey because the gelding is already a dual c/d winner, both victories coming in much better company than today's and as recently as December and January.

 

Old Bailey will benefit from the inclusion in today's race of Massey, a long-standing front-runner at this track, who should ensure the pace is quick. Old Bailey, although his last three wins have come at this trip, has also won over 7f, so he is bound to appreciate a fast-run race at 6f and should be showing his strength in the latter stages.

 

Old Bailey is rated 10lbs and a stone higher than his two main market rivals yet concedes only 4lbs to each of them today. The blinkers, which he has worn for his two previous c/d wins, are back on again today after being left off for his latest run.

 

It is also notable that Flood has booked Martin Dwyer to ride Old Bailey. Dwyer has only ridden once for the yard in five years and that resulted in a win. He also happens to have the top strike rate at this venue.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

OLD BAILEY WON Evs

 

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Tuesday 5 April 2005

 

Folkestone 3.50

4. HIGHER LOVE

Stake: 3 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Class 5)

Distance: 1m 1.7f

Track: Right-handed, tight, undulating

Ground: Soft (good-soft places)

 

Analysis:

Newmarket trainer Michael Bell, who has recorded two winners and two places from his last four runners, has a fine chance of landing this weak-looking fillies' maiden event with Higher Love.

 

The soft ground should suit her well because her final run of last season was a 2nd/8 in a Class 2 maiden at Haydock on a similar surface. She still looked green on what was only the second run of her career, and she took up the running fully two furlongs from home. The winner was having her sixth run and had already recorded two decent placed efforts.

 

Frankie Dettori doesn't ride often for this stable and has a 35% strike rate at this venue. He has been booked for this ride for some time and the trainer has won as many races here as all the others put together.

 

Main market rival Ticki Tori comes from a yard who have failed to land a winner from 18 runners at this track and the fact that Higher Love has an Oaks entry to her name also adds confidence.

 

Higher Love was backed in to 5/2 favourite for what was a decent maiden at Haydock last time (Mick Channon's well-beaten third has won since) and she can repay supporters by going one better today.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

HIGHER LOVE WON 4/5

 

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Saturday 2 April 2005

 

Wolverhampton 7.00

3. GILDED COVE

Stake: 2 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Claiming Stakes (Class 6)

Distance: 6f

Track: Left-handed, tight, flat

Ground: Polytrack (standard)

 

Analysis:

Reg Hollinshead's Gilded Cove won this event from stall 7 last year with Tony Culhane in the saddle, and the same result from exactly the same circumstances could be on the cards once again.

 

Gilded Cove is blind in his right eye, and, as a result, he runs his best races on left-handed tracks when he is drawn towards the outside so that he can see his rivals on his inside. He loves this venue and six of his seven wins have come here, all but one of them when drawn towards the outside. Tony Culhane knows him well and was on board for two of his last three course wins.

 

Gilded Cove has a performance pattern that shows he runs his best races at this time of the year and he has recorded wins on this track during April in each of the last two years.

 

Likely favourite Samuel Charles won a 7f claimer at Lingfield yesterday but he is making his 6f debut in the 30th race of his career, coming the day after a previous run, so he could be vulnerable.

 

Gilded Cove runs well fresh, as he showed when recording his last win following a break of five months, so he should be ready to go for the in-form yard. A repeat attempt at this prize will surely have been his target for a while and, with an identical set of conditions to those he had last year, he could produce the goods once more.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

GILDED COVE WON 11/2

 

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Thursday 31 March 2005

 

Doncaster 4.00

1. AUTUMN GLORY

Stake: 3 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Listed (Class 1)

Distance: 1m

Track: Left-handed, galloping, mainly flat

Ground: Good (good-soft places)

 

Analysis:

Likely short-priced favourite Hurricane Alan has to be respected but he is unlikely to offer any value for a horse that, consistent though he is, has only won once in his last seventeen races. He would really rather be going right-handed and his best runs have come on tracks with uphill finishes, so there is a chance that he could be done for toe today.

 

Both his main rivals, Geoff Wragg's Autumn Glory and Michael Jarvis's Putra Pekan are always at the top of their game on their seasonal debuts. Autumn Glory is unbeaten in both seasonal debuts to date and Putra Pekan has won first time out on three occasions out of five, those being in the last three years.

 

Of the two, Autumn Glory is the one with two Group wins to his name, those coming in two of his last three races, and that level of form is better than Putra Pekan's two Listed wins. On his first outing last year, Autumn Glory won the Spring Mile on this track comfortably from 23 opponents, showing that he handles these conditions perfectly, and he kept on improving towards the end of last season. He handles any ground and a mile on a galloping track is ideal for him.

 

It is likely that Autumn Glory and Putra Pekan, both of whom have won from the front, will cut out a good pace between them. However, Putra Pekan is unlikely to still be on the upgrade at the age of seven and the Group form of Autumn Glory could give him the edge in class today. The other Group winner, Hurricane Alan, will be staying on well in the closing stages but he would have liked a stiffer finish than this over a mile, in order to bring his strength into play a little more.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

AUTUMN GLORY WON 15/8

 

Steve Jones Private Service

 

Wednesday 30 March 2005

 

Fontwell 4.20

1. MISTER MUSTARD

Stake: 2 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Novices' Hurdle (Class E)

Distance: 2m 4f

Track: Left-handed, tight, flat

Ground: Good

 

Analysis:

We have proved many times before that the effect of additional weight on tight tracks is greatly negated by the fact that the runners never get into the protracted gallop where it makes a difference. On this type of circuit the weight is transferred into a holding force around the bends, rather than an anchor which stops the horse as it does on a straight or uphill track.

 

Mister Mustard, despite being hampered two out, beat today's main rival Mr Boo over 2m 2.5f here ten days ago. The extra 1.5f of this race counts in Mister Mustard's favour as he had easily won over this c/d on his previous outing whilst Mr Boo had never been as far as the distance of his last race before.

 

Tony McCoy rode Mister Mustard to both those victories and his 37% strike rate over hurdles on this track also counts for a lot, as does the trainer's 33% record over the smaller obstacles here, as well as the gelding's unbeaten record at this venue. Mister Mustard's class told last time the two main rivals met and it should do so again on the same ground conditions today.

 

Brendan Powell's runner, Monster Mick, could be crucial in that he is likely to set a good pace. That will suit Mister Mustard ideally whilst testing the resolve of Mr Boo over the longer trip. The expertise of McCoy around this tight circuit, combined with the proven ability of the top-rated horse in the race, Mister Mustard, could well gain the day with the extra weight he carries serving only to add value to his price.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

MISTER MUSTARD WON Evs

 

Steve Jones Private Service

 

Tuesday 29 March 2005

 

Pontefract 5.20

7. IMPROVISE

Stake: 2 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Class 5)

Distance: 6f

Track: Left-hand dog-leg, undulating, uphill

Ground: Good-soft

 

Analysis:

Frankie Dettori has only ever ridden once before for Saif Ali, and that resulted in a maiden win. The same thing could happen again today as the pair team up once more with the Clive Brittain-trained Improvise.

 

This race was won from stall one last year and the ground was on the soft side, as it is again here. The winner was a filly who had already recorded a couple of decent seconds in other maiden events, one of which came over the longer 7f trip.

 

Improvise is drawn in stall one today and, as with last year's winner, she has two fine runner-up placings to her name, including one over 7f. That is important on this uphill track because runners who are proven to stay further are always preferable to those who can only stay the bare distance of today's race on a flat track.

 

Her last run was a fine effort behind the subsequent Horris Hill third King Marju, who is entered in next month's 2000 Guineas. Improvise finished only a length behind that classy performer and the race was run in a time well below standard. That piece of form looks very good in the context of today's event and Improvise was staying on stoutly up the Newmarket hill in a manner that suggested she would enjoy a track like this one.

 

Improvise has been spotted doing some good work at home recently, and, with the eye-catching jockey booking, it looks as though connections mean business today. The filly was also entered in a Folkestone maiden tomorrow but it is obviously felt that this longer trip will provide her best opportunity.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

IMPROVISE WON 11/8

 

Steve Jones Private Service

 

Saturday 26 March 2005

 

Haydock 4.40

4. SCHUH SHINE

Stake: 2 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Novices' Chase (Class D)

Distance: 2m 6f

Track: Left-handed, galloping, mainly flat, big fences

Ground: Good (good-soft places)

 

Analysis:

The lines of form in this race point towards Schuh Shine continuing his progressive form and completing a four-timer.

 

On his penultimate run, at Kempton at the end of January, he gamely saw off a decent field of handicappers which included Brown Teddy, who has since finished second in two more valuable races than this. Back in fifth place, eighteen lengths behind Schuh Shine, was Rakassa, who comfortably beat two of today's market leaders, Edmo Yewkay and Jordans Lad, when the three of them met just over a fortnight ago.

 

Schuh Shine is the only c/d winner in this field, that coming on soft ground and on his latest run, a month ago. Having also won twice on good ground he will be at home again here in terms of the track, trip and surface.

 

Front-running Schuh Shine has recorded all of the top three speed figures achieved by these runners on their last three outings and he continues to show a very willing attitude when challenged. Sam Thomas was in the saddle for two of those last three wins, including the latest over this c/d, and he has won two from four over fences at this track.

 

Trainer Venetia Williams has a good record with chasers here, is in fine current form with her last two runners winning, and had two original entries for this. Schuh Shine is the one she prefers, and she runs him here in preference to a valuable handicap chase at Carlisle, for which he also has the tissue favourite. Stable jockey Thomas, however, is sent to partner two of the yard's runners at this venue instead of going to Carlisle.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

SCHUH SHINE WON 11/10

 

Steve Jones Private Service

 

Friday 18 March 2005

 

Cheltenham 3.15

6. KICKING KING

Stake: 3 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Grade 1 Chase (Class A)

Distance: 3m 2.5f

Track: Left-handed, stiff, undulating, uphill finish

Ground: Good

 

Analysis:

The best way to approach this race is to look at its history, and Kicking King's situation today reminds me very much of Best Mate's in March 2002.

 

As with Kicking King today, Best Mate's previous run had been a lifetime best, coming in the King George on the previous Boxing Day, the only difference being that Best Mate had been narrowly beaten there.

 

As with Kicking King today, Best Mate came straight to the Gold Cup from the King George as a mere 7yo, about whom stamina queries were being raised in some quarters because the 3m of the King George were the furthest he had ever been.

 

As with Kicking King today, Best Mate had the good ground he wanted in the Gold Cup, in order to make stamina less of an issue (which it turned out not to be in any case) and the rest is history. From King George straight to Gold Cup was the way connections of Best Mate liked to play it (he won both of them the following season) and Kicking King's connections could have done much worse than to follow that example.

 

It could turn out ironic that, with Best Mate's unfortunate absence this year, the one to succeed him to the crown may well be a horse with extremely similar credentials to those he had at the same stage of his own career, together with an identical preparation and the same conditions on the day itself.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

KICKING KING WON 4/1

 

Steve Jones Private Service

 

Tuesday 8 March 2005

 

Exeter 4.25

8. LASKA DE THAIX

Stake: 2 points

 

LASKA DE THAIX

Race Details:

Class: Novices' Hurdle (Class E)

Distance: 3m 0.5f

Track: Right-handed, stiff, undulating

Ground: Good-soft

 

Analysis:

Laska De Thaix has two Cheltenham entries so he should have the ability to take a Class E novices' hurdle, given the right conditions. An ex-French gelding, he has finished second and third on his first two runs in this country but this time he looks to have more favourable conditions than he had on either of those occasions.

 

His debut in this country came on this track, when he ran 2nd/17 behind the progressive Racing Demon. He found the stiff nature of the track to his liking, but the 2m 3f trip looked too short for him. Next time out, he was stepped up to today's distance at Taunton, when he finished 3rd/12 behind Paul Nicholls' Blue Business, who has won in Class C since. The tight track didn't really play to Laska De Thaix's main strength, which is stamina, and the ground wasn't as soft as he would have liked either.

 

Laska De Thaix looks to have things his way this time. He has the marathon trip, the stiff track and the give underfoot. This looks to be his optimum set of conditions and he has a good chance to confirm the promise he has already shown.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

LASKA DE THAIX WON 2/1

 

Steve Jones Private Service

 

Friday 4 March 2005

 

Wolverhampton 4.35

9. ISLE DE MAURICE

Stake: 1 point

 

Race Details:

Class: Maiden Stakes (Class 3)

Distance: 1m 4f

Track: Left-handed, tight, flat

Ground: Polytrack (standard)

 

Analysis:

Isle De Maurice has already beaten his main market rival Charade when the two met on their racecourse debuts. That came two weeks ago, on today's track and over the shorter 1m 1.5f trip. Things happened a bit too quickly for Isle De Maurice over that distance, but once he got the hang of things he ran on really well down the home straight to finish 2nd/11 behind Jeremy Noseda's Almavara with Charade two and a half lengths behind him in fourth.

 

Being by Derby winner Sinndar, and having a dam that was sired by another Derby winner The Minstrel, Isle De Maurice should enjoy this 12f much more. Tregoning has won with two of his last three all-weather runners and Martin Dwyer, one of the top riders on this track, returns to partner the colt as he did two weeks ago.

 

With the anticipated improvement following his promising debut, and with the step up in trip, Isle De Maurice should be able to confirm superiority over Charade, whose pedigree isn't as convincing over this trip, and the prospects look good for a successful return to this venue.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

ISLE DE MAURICE WON 5/4

 

Steve Jones Private Service

 

Thursday 3 March 2005

 

Taunton 3.30

9. RED DEVIL ROBERT

Stake: 3 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Beginners' Chase (Class E)

Distance: 3m

Track: Right-handed, tight

Ground: Good-soft (good places)

 

Analysis:

The Paul Nicholls yard can do little wrong at the moment and have a fine record with chasers on this track. This is a big drop in class for his representative Red Devil Robert, who was last seen finishing third in a Grade 2 novices' chase at Wincanton last November, behind the very useful pair Comply Or Die and Distant Thunder, both of whom have won big races since.

 

A consistent sort who has yet to finish out of the prize money in five career starts, Red Devil Robert matched those two illustrious rivals for the best part of the race at Wincanton and, considering that was his first run over fences, it was a very promising effort.

 

He takes this Class E event in preference to a Class C handicap at Newbury tomorrow and the opposition here looks unlikely to throw up anything of the calibre of his two Wincanton conquerors. In fact, the runner who finished behind him in fourth had already won four consecutive chases, the last three of which were better races than this one.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

RED DEVIL ROBERT WON 10/11

 

Steve Jones Private Service

 

Tuesday 1 March 2005

 

Catterick 5.10

3. BOUGOURE

Stake: 2 points

 

Race Details:

Class: NH Flat (Class H)

Distance: 2m

Track: Left-handed, tight, undulating

Ground: Good-soft (soft places)

 

Analysis:

Solid form in the book is always worth a lot in this type of event and Sue Smith's Bougoure has by far the best form on show here. Last time out, over this trip at Doncaster, he ran a decent 2nd/18 behind Martin Pipe's Buena Vista with six lengths back to the third. Pipe's runner was expected to do the business that day, being backed in from 9/4 to 6/4, but Bougoure travelled well for a long way and was much better than the others.

 

This looks a weaker race than at Doncaster and Trevor Hemmings' runner could have been found a good opportunity. Hemmings doesn't have many poor quality animals and two of today's three main market rivals are making their racecourse debuts. They will have to be fairly useful to surpass the Doncaster run of Bougoure on their first attempt.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

BOUGOURE WON 13/8

 

Steve Jones Private Service 2005

 

Friday 25 February 2005

 

Warwick 1.25

3. THE LISTENER

Stake: 3 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Novices' Hurdle (Class C)

Distance: 3m 1f

Track: Left-handed, tight, undulating in places

Ground: Heavy (soft places)

 

Analysis:

The ground on the hurdles course is reported to be heavy, so a lot will depend on how these novice hurdlers adapt to this long-distance event under such testing conditions.

 

Likely favourite Woodlands Genpower is on a hat-trick but has only ever won on good or good-soft ground, whilst his main market rival, The Listener, thrives in the mud. He would probably have won on heavy ground at Chepstow just after Christmas but for falling at the last obstacle, and he went down by just a head under the same testing conditions at Leicester last time out.

 

Having won at Plumpton, another left-handed, tight, undulating track, The Listener should be well-suited by the venue today. His regular rider Andrew Thornton takes the ride once again and the horse shows a very willing attitude in his races. He looks a much better calibre of opponent than Woodlands Genpower has faced recently.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

THE LISTENER WON 5/2

 

Steve Jones Private Service 2005

 

Tuesday 22 February 2005

 

Lingfield 3.40

3. GARNETT

Stake: 3 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Auction Maiden Stakes (Class 4)

Distance: 1m 5f

Track: Left-handed, tight

Ground: Polytrack (standard)

 

Analysis:

This is the easiest opportunity that Garnett has had for quite some time. He is proven on the track and over the trip and a repeat of his close 3rd/11 in higher grade, which came here last time out, would be good enough to take this weaker event. He appeared to be well suited by the addition of cheekpieces on that occasion and they are left on again today.

 

That last run was over the shorter 12f trip, but he was staying on well at the end and the extra furlong today should be ideal. He has been placed over 14f on the flat so there is no doubt about his ability to stay.

 

He has the best speed figures of these runners, both on this track and over this trip and his trainer's strike rate with older horses here is far superior to any of the others. Garnett is rated 8lbs better than main market rival Blue Hills yet the pair compete on level terms today.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

GARNETT WON 6/5

 

Steve Jones Private Service 2005

 

Saturday 19 February 2005

 

Haydock 4.35

3. THAMES

Stake: 3 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Novices' Hurdle (Class D)

Distance: 2m 4f

Track: Left-handed, tight, mainly flat

Ground: Soft

 

Analysis:

The only c/d winner in the race, Thames, would boost his Cheltenham prospects further by taking this, and he must have every chance the way he is progressing for Nicky Henderson's very much in-form yard.

 

Back in November, on his first run for over seven months, Thames put up a fine performance in a Class B event behind subsequent Grade 2 winner No Refuge and Grade 2 third Football Crazy. That was over today's trip, and he showed the run to be no fluke by recording an eleven lengths' win over this c/d two weeks later, with one of today's rivals, Miss Cospector, well beaten.

 

Soft ground suits the Trevor Hemmings gelding ideally and it would be a surprise if any of today's opponents were in the same league as No Refuge. Henderson's string are flying at present, with six winners already this week, and, with track-type, ground and trip in his favour, Thames could well add to that in today's grade.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

THAMES WON 1/2

 

Steve Jones Private Service 2005

 

Wednesday 16 February 2005

 

Leicester 4.10

8. THIEVES'GLEN

Stake: 1 point

 

Race Details:

Class: Maiden Chase (Class E)

Distance: 2m

Track: Right-handed, stiff, uphill finish

Ground: Soft (good-soft places)

 

Analysis:

Hughie Morrison had three choices with Thieves'Glen this week, as he also had the gelding entered in the Class D handicap chase on this card at 3.10, as well as lining up a crack at a Class C handicap at Sandown on Friday. This is much the easier option of the three and Tony McCoy is a very positive booking.

 

Thieves'Glen is rated 10lbs superior to anything else in the race yet runs on level terms with his main market rivals. That advantage may come in handy going up the final hill and this return to the minimum trip looks a good move after Thieves'Glen had led all the way before weakening with only three fences to go over 3m 1f at Folkestone last time out.

 

McCoy has a huge 42% strike rate on this track and rarely rides for this yard. Morrison bred Thieves'Glen himself and looks determined to get him on the scoresheet after a couple of unlucky setbacks earlier in the gelding's career.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

THIEVES'GLEN WON 10/3

 

Steve Jones Private Service 2005

 

Tuesday 15 February 2005

 

Folkestone 2.50

6. I HEAR THUNDER

Stake: 1 point

 

Race Details:

Class: Beginners' Chase (Class E)

Distance: 2m 5f

Track: Right-handed, tight, undulating

Ground: Good-soft (soft places)

 

Analysis:

I Hear Thunder has mainly been running in better class than this and he is already proven on the track, over the trip and on this sort of ground, so it looks to be a fine chance for him to get off the mark over fences. He has been highly tried in four of his last five outings, finishing third three times and fourth once in classes B and C.

 

His fourth in a Class B handicap at Cheltenham last time out was his best effort for a while. It came over today's trip, with today's rider and with give in the ground. The winner, Lacdoudal, was completing a hat-trick and went on to finish within a couple of lengths in a Grade 1 chase at Sandown ten days ago. That sort of performance in today's company could well see I Hear Thunder claiming a deserved win.

 

He is entered in a better race than this at Taunton on Thursday but takes this easier opportunity. His main opposition haven't run for well over a year and a repeat of his consistent recent form could see him home this time.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

I HEAR THUNDER WON 9/4

 

Steve Jones Private Service 2005

 

Saturday 12 February 2005

 

Lingfield 4.25

1. DESPERATION

Stake: 3 points

 

Race Details:

Class: 3yo Claiming Stakes (Class 3)

Distance: 1m 2f

Track: Left-handed, tight

Ground: Polytrack (standard)

 

Analysis:

Weight concession on tight tracks rarely has any real consequence because the runners are continually going around bends and never get into the protracted gallop where weight becomes an issue. Desperation is the only c/d winner in the race, and his c/d win, which came last time out, was in a better race than this.

 

Having been campaigned at around a mile prior to that race, Desperation found the step up to this trip to his liking. With only a third of this field proven over 10f he has quite a bit going for him.

 

His main market rival is Spence Appeal, who has tended to be a difficult ride. His jockey, Jimmy Fortune, hasn't partnered him before, which isn't ideal for a horse that tends to hang, so it will be interesting to see how the pair get on. In any case, Spence Appeal has only ever won in selling class before so he has something to find.

 

The solid c/d form in higher grade shown by Desperation could be the key to this event and jockey Darren Williams knows him well.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

DESPERATION WON 9/4

 

Steve Jones Private Service 2005

 

Friday 11 February 2005

 

Bangor 2.15

1. REBEL RHYTHM

Stake: 1 point

 

Race Details:

Class: Novices' Hurdle (Class E)

Distance: 2m 1f

Track: Left-handed, tight, mainly flat

Ground: Good-soft (soft places)

 

Analysis:

Well down in class, Sue Smith's Rebel Rhythm could well get back to winning ways, having twice won easily in better races than this before being aimed at the very top grade last time out. He is very highly regarded and was still expected to go well in that Grade 1 event, which was at Newbury at the end of last year.

 

The feeling after the race was that the ground was a bit too quick for him, but it is also possible that the galloping track at Newbury didn't necessarily suit his style. All his wins had come on left-handed tight tracks, so now that he is back at another venue with those characteristics, as well as dropping into a grade below that in which he won twice before, he should go well.

 

Today's ground shouldn't hold any problems (any further rain would be a bonus) and regular rider Dominic Elsworth takes the ride. Having been given a break of over six weeks, Rebel Rhythm should be ready to go. His performance pattern shows that he runs well when fresh.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

REBEL RHYTHM WON 5/6

 

Steve Jones Private Service 2005

 

Thursday 10 February 2005

 

Wincanton 3.00

12. SENOR SEDONA

Stake: 1 point

 

Race Details:

Class: Novices' Hurdle (Class C)

Distance: 2m 6f

Track: Right-handed, tight, flat

Ground: Good-soft (soft places)

 

Analysis:

The two market principals, Jackson and Senor Sedona, were both highly tried when they ran in a Grade 2 novices' hurdle over 3m at Cheltenham back in December. The easy winner was the top-class Brewster, with Jackson well back in second and Senor Sedona in fifth.

 

However, it is interesting to see how the two have progressed since then. They have both run just the once, with Jackson dropping right back into Class E but coming up against our bet that day, the useful Bob Bob Bobbin, who exploited Jackson's lack of a change of gear over a shorter trip as we had predicted.

 

However, Senor Sedona's latest run was a big improvement. He ran a fine 2nd/17 in a Class D event at Kempton, behind the progressive Bagan, who is fancied to go well in the Royal and Sun Alliance Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Senor Sedona, who ran on well to finish only a length and a half down at the line, has an extra furlong today, as well as another right-handed tight flat track, and he looks the more progressive of the pair.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

SENOR SEDONA WON 5/2

 

Steve Jones Private Service 2005

 

Monday 7 February 2005

 

Sedgefield 2.40

4. CORLANDE

Stake: 3 points

 

Southwell 2.20

4. NEWTONIAN

Stake: 2 points

 

CORLANDE

Race Details:

Class: Novices' Hurdle (Class E)

Distance: 2m 5.5f

Track: Left-handed, stiff, undulating

Ground: Soft (heavy places)

 

Analysis:

This novices' hurdle is very weak and only one of the seven runners is proven on soft ground, that being Sue Smith's Corlande, who ran a couple of decent races on that sort of surface in Ireland last year. Most of these stables are out of form but the Sue Smith/Dominic Elsworth partnership have the top track strike rates for both trainer and rider as well as being among the winners of late.

 

Corlande showed promise on his hurdling debut in this country, which came over what now looks an unsuitably short trip at Catterick last month. This event looks much weaker and the step up in trip is undoubtedly in his favour.

 

Elsworth, who rides the majority of the yard's winners, travels to Sedgefield for just the one serious ride, and, with the poor quality of opposition, it looks a fair bet that the trip will be worthwhile.

 

NEWTONIAN

Race Details:

Class: Maiden Stakes (Class 3)

Distance: 1m 4f

Track: Left-handed, tight, flat

Ground: Fibresand (standard)

 

Analysis:

Fibresand is much more difficult to adapt to than Polytrack so the fact that only three of the ten runners are already proven on the surface immediately makes this race interesting from a betting point of view. Of those three, Newtonian has by far the most promising recent form and this event looks a good opportunity for him to get off the mark.

 

Newtonian has finished in the places on all his five visits to this venue but none of those races appeared to be as easy as this one. On his last visit, over this c/d last month, he was beaten only a neck over c/d with the first two well clear of the other seven runners. The winner boosted the form by going in again on this track last Thursday to record his sixth course win, so Newtonian must have a fine chance in this very moderate-looking maiden.

 

The speed figure Newtonian recorded over c/d last time out is the best achieved by any of these runners for a long time and he must take a deal of beating under a set of conditions proven to suit.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

CORLANDE WON 5/4

 

NEWTONIAN WON 6/4

 

Steve Jones Private Service 2005

 

Saturday 5 February 2005

 

Sandown 1.10

2. IRON MAN

Stake: 3 points

 

Lingfield 1.20

7. DESERT LIGHTNING

Stake: 3 points

 

IRON MAN

Race Details:

Class: Novices' Hurdle (Class D)

Distance: 2m 0.5f

Track: Right-handed, uphill finish

Ground: Good-soft (good places)

 

Analysis:

Apart from having the most hurdling experience of the principals in the field, Howard Johnson's Iron Man is the only distance winner on show and the only one proven on this track. There were some lightly-raced but promising types in this event last year, but in the end the fact that the winner, Tusk, had more hurdling experience than the other placed horses went in his favour, and that could be the case again today.

 

Johnson has a good record when he makes the 560-mile round trip to this venue, and Iron Man is the property of his top owner Graham Wylie. Having twice already gone close in higher grade than this, Iron Man should be up to winning in this class. He could well have won a Class C novices' hurdle over this c/d on his last visit but for blundering two out when still going well in front. That was on good-soft ground so Iron Man has a full set of conditions in his favour as well as his experience.

 

He may well attempt to make all, and, if he gets an uncontested lead he should prove hard to overhaul on the uphill climb to the line.

 

DESERT LIGHTNING

Race Details:

Class: Maiden Stakes (Class 3)

Distance: 7f

Track: Left-handed, tight

Ground: Polytrack (standard)

 

Analysis:

Only three of these fourteen maidens are proven at this Polytrack venue, and two of them are very likely to dominate the betting, those being Desert Lightning and Sergeant Lewis. The latter was a 66/1 shot when finishing second in a similar contest over c/d last time out. However, the time of that race was over half a second slower than Desert Lightning's c/d debut last October.

 

By all accounts Desert Lightning has been putting in some very good work on the Polytrack at home recently and is ready to go. Had he not improved at all from his debut run it is likely that he would still have been good enough to take this, but the reports coming from the Noseda yard, who are in great form at present, are very positive.

 

Five of Noseda's last nine runners have won and he will be expecting a bold show from Desert Lightning, who is his only runner of the day.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

IRON MAN WON Evs

 

DESERT LIGHTNING WON 4/9

 

Steve Jones Private Service 2005

 

Thursday 3 February 2005

 

Kelso 1.50

1. HABITUAL DANCER

Stake: 2 points

 

Race Details:

Class: Novices' Hurdle (Class E)

Distance: 2m 2f

Track: Left-handed, tight

Ground: Good

 

Analysis:

The two principals, Regal Setting and Habitual Dancer, are both well down in class today. Regal Setting was favourite to win a Class B novices' hurdle last time out but disappointed in both his jumping and his resolve that day. A much better piece of recent form is that of Habitual Dancer's last run. Even though he wasn't fancied, he ran a fine 3rd/16 in a Grade 1 contest behind Phar Bleu at Chepstow at the end of last year.

 

Habitual Dancer's Chepstow form was franked when the runner who finished behind him in fourth, Salut Saint Cloud, ran 3rd/16 in a Grade 2 event at Cheltenham just last Saturday. That gelding had already won in Grade 2 before the Chepstow race so he is a solid yardstick. If Habitual Dancer runs to that level again here, and he should enjoy the step up in trip, he will make life very difficult for Regal Setting, who has not yet fulfilled his potential after a winning hurdles debut.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

HABITUAL DANCER WON 7/4

 

Steve Jones Private Service 2005

 

Wednesday 2 February 2005

 

Newcastle 1.20

12. LE BIASSAIS

Stake: 1 point

 

Race Details:

Class: Novices' Hurdle (Class E)

Distance: 2m 4f

Track: Left-handed, stiff, uphill finish

Ground: Soft (heavy places)

 

Analysis:

This track is stiff enough as it is, but when the ground conditions are like this it becomes a real slog and the finishing hill won't suit the faint-hearted. However, this combination of stiff track and heavy ground will be ideal for Len Lungo's Le Biassais, who has already shown his liking for similar conditions on the stamina-sapping tracks at Carlisle and Hexham on his last two runs.

 

They both came on heavy ground, in today's grade, and with Tony Dobbin on board. He finished second on both occasions but he has an extra three furlongs today. The way he stayed on in the closing stages, particularly at Hexham, suggests that the extra trip may bring about further improvement.

 

The only one to beat him at Hexham was Bewleys Berry, who has since won a Grade 2 event by ten lengths and is well fancied for a Cheltenham Festival success. It is very unlikely that there is anything of that calibre in opposition today and Le Biassais could claim a deserved success.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

LE BIASSAIS WON 15/8

 

Steve Jones Private Service 2005

 

Tuesday 1 February 2005

 

Lingfield 2.00

7. SIAN THOMAS

Stake: 2 points

 

Taunton 3.10

1. BLUE BUSINESS

Stake: 1 point

 

SIAN THOMAS

Race Details:

Class: Auction Maiden Stakes (Class 4)

Distance: 1m 5f

Track: Left-handed, tight

Ground: Polytrack (standard)

 

Analysis:

Down in class and with the extra furlong likely to be in her favour, this looks a fine chance for Marcus Tregoning's Sian Thomas, who has already shown herself to be well suited by this Polytrack surface.

 

Just last Saturday she ran a fine 2nd/11 over 12f on this track in a Class 3 maiden. She lost her place 3f out, was then blocked in her run 2f out, and then finished fast to get second place in what was a better race than this. The way in which she stayed on suggested that today's trip will suit her well and reports from the stable say she has come out of the race well and is in good shape.

 

Martin Dwyer takes the ride once more and the Tregoning yard have the top track strike rate in this race. With none of her rivals getting within six lengths of the winner on their latest outings the door is open for Sian Thomas to take advantage.

 

BLUE BUSINESS

Race Details:

Class: Novices' Hurdle (Class E)

Distance: 3m 0.5f

Track: Right-handed, tight

Ground: Good (good-soft places)

 

Analysis:

The only runner in the race to be proven on this right-handed tight track, and one of only three to be proven over this marathon trip, Blue Business looks to have a lot going for him, especially as he also won on good-soft ground last time out.

 

That came at Wincanton, another right-handed tight track, over 2m 6f and in this grade. However, last season he ran 3rd/12 in a Class C novices' hurdle on the same track, proving that he is well up to winning at this level and also that this track configuration suits him ideally.

 

His last visit to this venue saw him run second behind Willie John Daly over today's c/d, which was certainly no disgrace. It was that race that proved his staying power over today's trip, and, with plenty of question marks surrounding his main opposition regarding track, trip and ground combinations, Blue Business looks worth supporting.

 

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

 

SIAN THOMAS WON 4/6

 

BLUE BUSINESS WON 7/4