Steve Jones Analysis

The Daily Bargain

by Steve Jones

Tuesday 13 May 2008

Southwell 4.50

2. MASAI MOON

Price advice: Take 11/4+

Race Details:

Class: 0-85 Handicap (Class 4)

Distance: 7f

Track: Left-handed, tight, flat

Ground: Fibresand (standard)

Shortlist:

2. Masai Moon, 1. Kabeer.

Analysis:

This is a lot tougher than the races Flying Bantam has been contesting lately, and he hasn't won above Class 5 for over three years. Sailor King has been struggling at this level on his favoured Polytrack, so there is no obvious reason for that to suddenly change on this surface. This is also a big leap in class for Bartercard, who beat rivals rated 70 and below when scoring over c/d last time.

That leaves Kelamon, Masai Moon and Kabeer. all of whom have the credentials to go well. However, Kelamon didn't look too strong at the end of a slightly weaker c/d handicap in February, so preference is for Masai Moon and Kabeer.

If Kabeer were to repeat January's c/d run, when he beat Evens And Odds in Class 2, he would be very hard to beat. The problem is, all his wins since 2005 have come with Natalia Gemelova on board. He has run eighteen times for a total of ten other riders since then, and hasn't managed to win for any of them. He should still go well again on his favourite track, especially as this is the weakest race he has contested all year, but he may again miss his regular partner.

I would always be wary of advising a horse on his Fibresand debut, but there are some very good reasons why Masai Moon is likely to be suited by this surface. He is by Lujain, whose progeny tend to go very well on this track. They include Owed, who has never won anywhere else apart from here. Others like Anfield Dream and Master Pegasus took really well to the surface at their first attempts. In addition, Masai Moon's dam sire, Cozzene, is responsible for the likes of Hasten To Add, who won here very easily on his only visit.

In addition to the breeding aspects, Masai Moon represents top Fibresand connections. Both trainer and jockey have excellent records with older horses at this venue, and nobody could really be better qualified to judge a horse's potential suitability. If they are right, then Masai Moon will have an outstanding chance based on class. His close 4th/26 over this trip at Newmarket last October, when he finished in front of 16 runners rated higher than the ceiling of today's race, gives him every right to win an event like this.

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

MASAI MOON WON 11/4 (by 4l)

Comment: Judging by the way his price lengthened, not many punters had taken the time to research Masai Moon's potential suitability to Fibresand. It had looked very much as though he would be well-suited by the surface and, once that became apparent, he had far too much class for these rivals.

The Daily Bargain

by Steve Jones

Thursday 8 May 2008

Great Leighs 5.40

3. WIND FLOW

Price advice: Take 9/2+

Race Details:

Class: 0-70 Handicap (Class 5)

Distance: 1m 6f (14f)

Track: Left-handed, tight, flat

Ground: Polytrack (standard)

Shortlist:

3. Wind Flow, 1. Strong Survivor

Analysis:

There have now been four meetings on this new all-weather track and close analysis shows that, in terms of stamina requirements, it is certainly more demanding than Lingfield, looking to be on a par with Kempton but not as testing as Wolverhampton. It is unlikely that too many punters have conducted a detailed study of it just yet, so this could be a good time to take advantage of what looks a decent opportunity.

Cavallini is likely to be well-supported because, not only is he the only one with previous experience here, but he got within a length of the progressive Boz over c/d a week ago. That piece of form will probably make him favourite, but it could also be misleading. It was the second race to be run over this 14f, and it was run in a time which was about a dozen lengths slower than the first. Once Boz collared Cavallini a furlong out there was only going to be one winner, so the margin of victory flatters Cavallini, whose stamina for a truly-run race over this trip is still open to question, as it was when he was unable to find much in the closing stages at Sandown last season.

There is a front-runner in Leyte Gulf, who stays this far at Southwell, so there should be a reasonable pace. With My Mentor looking held by both Strong Survivor and Wind Flow on a line through Cotton Eyed Joe, the most significant piece of form could turn out to be the 14f handicap at Wolverhampton last week when Wind Flow out-fought Strong Survivor in a close finish. There wasn't much between them but Wind Flow, under a very strong ride from Jimmy Quinn, showed the extra determination and will to win, and the same thing could happen again today.

Chris Dwyer's yard is in great form this year with 7 wins from just 18 runners and Jimmy Quinn not only knows Wind Flow very well but he already has a good appreciation of this track, having won one of his six rides. In contrast, Richard Mullen has never partnered Strong Survivor, nor has he ridden here yet.

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

WIND FLOW WON 5/1 to 4/1

Comment: The main reason for this bet was the favourite Cavallini's perceived vulnerability to a stamina horse. That proved to be the case and Wind Flow stayed on far too strongly in the closing stages.

The Daily Bargain

by Steve Jones

Thursday 1 May 2008

Redcar 5.30

1. SWIFT PRINCESS

Price advice: Take 5/1+

Race Details:

Class: 0-85 Handicap (Class 4)

Distance: 5f

Track: Straight, galloping, flat

Ground: Soft

Shortlist:

1. Swift Princess, 3. Gallery Girl, 2. Coconut Moon

Analysis:

Although this is billed as a 0-85 handicap it is actually only a 0-80 event, with Swift Princess on the highest mark of 80. She has a group of 0-77 rated sprinters to beat, which is a far easier task than she had on her last outing, when she was faced with half a dozen opponents rated between 80 and 85. In addition, that was her first run since last September so she should be all the better for it.

Her career-best effort came under very similar conditions to these, coming over 5f on soft ground at Ayr, another galloping track, on her final run of last season. The only difference being that was a classier sprint than today's, with five runners rated between 80 and 84. She was short-headed by the 80-rated Divine Spirit, who had won his previous race and is now rated 86, the pair finishing clear of the other twelve sprinters. A repeat of that performance would make Swift Princess very difficult to beat in this fillies-only handicap and she would certainly be a shorter price if her latest run was ignored (her price drifted as though something wasn't right just before the off). The fact that she stays 6f means she should be running on strongly in the closing stages, which will be important if the ground is very testing, as will the fact that she has plenty of form on soft and heavy.

If Gallery Girl is fit and ready for her seasonal debut she would be a big danger, but Tim Easterby's runners have been struggling of late. Nevertheless, this is an easier assignment than she has had for a long time, so she has to be respected given that she acts under the conditions. Similar comments apply to Coconut Moon, who should run a bigger race than she did on her first two starts of the year, though she is still on a higher mark than for any of her previous wins.

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

SWIFT PRINCESS WON 6/1(r4) to 3/1

Comment: Swift Princess finished very strongly to get up on the line from the shortlisted Gallery Girl. They both had very good claims under the conditions of this race, with Swift Princess preferred mainly because of her stronger finish over the trip on soft ground, and that proved to be the telling factor. She was given a very cool ride and only came under pressure in the final furlong. Fortunately, her rider didn't overdo the waiting and the filly got there in time. Before today, thirteen of this year's bets had been involved in close finishes (less than a length) and, incredibly, eleven of them had been beaten. Today's result begins to address the balance of a sequence that has to even itself out eventually. With Coconut Moon a non-runner, Gallery Girl completed a 16/1 Exacta with the pair a length clear.

The Daily Bargain

by Steve Jones

Monday 14 April 2008

Wolverhampton 4.20

2. VALLEY OF THE MOON

Price advice: Take 11/4+

Race Details:

Class: 0-75 Handicap (Class 5)

Distance: 5.09f

Track: Left-handed, tight, flat

Ground: Polytrack (standard)

Shortlist:

2. Valley Of The Moon, 1. Nigella.

Analysis:

Plenty of Richard Fahey's horses have been running well on their seasonal reappearances. Benandonner was second in the Spring Mile, Flying Clarets won, Bo McGinty was pipped on Polytrack then won next time, Swinbrook was narrowly beaten, Playtotheaudience won on this track and Albaqaa also scored. Valley Of The Moon ran well on her debut last season and is likely to be ready again, with Paul Hanagan travelling for just the one ride for his main yard.

Valley Of The Moon made her Polytrack debut over this c/d on her final run of last season, when she finished a staying-on fourth, beaten only a length or so, with Baileys Outshine further back in sixth. There were six horses rated 70 or above in that mixed-sex handicap, compared to just three (including herself) in today's event, which is restricted to fillies, so Fahey looks to have targeted a serious opportunity for Valley Of The Moon on her comeback. Including that last c/d handicap, she is now 3/3 against Baileys Outshine and 1/1 against Comptonspirit.

Valley Of The Moon, who easily stays 6f, needs a decent pace to be seen at her best over the minimum trip. That should be forthcoming with Contentious, Baileys Outshine, Comptonspirit and Nigella all having previously made every yard to score over this trip. A contested lead would be good news for Valley Of The Moon, and with those four all drawn next to each other, there is a fair chance of that happening. If they go too hard up front, she will be the main beneficiary with her strong finish.

With Contentious' yard still awaiting their first winner since November, Nigella is shortlisted on the basis of her third in higher grade over c/d in February. She failed to build on that in a fast-run c/d handicap next time, but would be dangerous if the lead wasn't strongly contested here.

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

VALLEY OF THE MOON WON 7/2 to 3/1

Comment: This was an easier c/d handicap than the one in which Valley Of The Moon had finished second on her final run of last season. She broke more smartly than she normally does and held the rail around the first bend from her inside draw. From that point onwards she was never going to be beaten because she stays at least another furlong. The other shortlisted runner, Nigella, pulled very hard under new tactics but still finished third.

The Daily Bargain

by Steve Jones

Saturday 12 April 2008

Kempton 4.30

2. CAPE HAWK

Price advice: Take 4/1+

Race Details:

Class: 0-85 Handicap (Class 4)

Distance: 1m (8f)

Track: Right-handed, tight, flat

Ground: Polytrack (standard)

Shortlist:

2. Cape Hawk, 16. Nice To Know, 1. Councellor

Analysis:

The news that Cape Hawk worked so impressively at home on Tuesday came as a big boost because I had already pencilled him in for this London Mile Qualifier on the basis that he went close to winning the final of the event as a 3yo last season, having already won his two previous c/d handicaps. He has been working with Latin Lad and Major Cadeaux. Derby entry Latin Lad is currently rated 100 and is a likely favourite for the Easter Stakes, a Listed race earlier on today's card. Major Cadeaux is rated 114 and runs in a Group 3 contest at the Curragh on Sunday. The fact that Cape Hawk is working so well with those two must give him a big chance of landing a 0-85 Class 4 handicap over his favourite c/d.

Cape Hawk comfortably beat his same-aged stablemate, Malt Or Mash, in a c/d qualifier for last year's London Mile. Malt Or Mash then went on a winning spree, ending his season by taking a Class 2 handicap from a mark of 97. He made his seasonal reappearance at this venue last month, landing a Listed race. He is now rated 111 and is entered in the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup next month. In the meantime, Cape Hawk still has a mark of just 85 to exploit, and this looks a good place to start.

From a handy inside draw, Richard Hughes should be able to track the early pace, which is likely to come from Dichoh, who wears a first-time visor, and Bold Marc. This track has rewarded prominent runners for quite a while now, so Hughes will want to make good use of his draw by surging up the rail in the early stages, before settling Cape Hawk just behind the leaders. If he achieves that manoeuvre, Cape Hawk will be in the ideal position to mount his challenge a couple of furlongs out. This is a two-grade drop in class from last September's final of this event, in which Cape Hawk finished less than a length behind the winner and may even have won with a clearer passage.

Last year's winner of this particular qualifier, Councellor, is usually very solid in this grade and is shortlisted together with Nice To Know, who was very progressive when moved to Gary Moore's yard last year. However, Cape Hawk appears to be ready for this and he is by Cape Cross, a top-class older miler whose progeny also progress very well.

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

CAPE HAWK WON 15/8

Comment: We knew that Cape Hawk was ready, and it is clear that he is much better than Class 4 standard at his best, so the only concern was whether Richard Hughes could get him out quickly and settle him into the obligatory prominent position. He did that without any problem, and from there it was plain sailing. Although comfortably beaten, the shortlisted Nice To Know ran a good race to finish second at 12/1, completing a 37/1 Exacta. The Racing Post betting forecast had Cape Hawk at 11/2 on Friday evening. I knew that was too big, but I thought there might be some 4/1 available when the markets opened. There was some at Betfair, but the bookmakers opened at a best of just 7/2. From there, he was backed right down throughout the day, eventually going off at 15/8, which is the price I have used for record purposes because the advised 4/1 was never available (other than at the exchanges).

The Daily Bargain

by Steve Jones

Tuesday 25 March 2008

Pontefract 3.10

9. COLLATERAL DAMAGE

Price advice: Take 7/1+

Race Details:

Class: 0-95 Handicap (Class 3)

Distance: 1m 0.02f (8.02f)

Track: Left-handed, undulating, uphill finish

Ground: Good-soft

Analysis:

Royal Dignitary, Denbera Dancer and Nevada Desert all enjoy front-running, so there should be no hanging around in this mile handicap and the winner will need to have plenty left for the steep, uphill climb to the line. With a tight left-handed turn after just a couple of furlongs, followed by a series of undulations and then the short, uphill straight, this track has unsurprisingly become something of a specialists' venue. Long-striding gallopers tend to become unbalanced, yet a fair degree of stamina is required.

Collateral Damage loves some cut in the ground and he would have been a clear winner over this c/d on his last visit, had it not been for the presence of Shumookh. Collateral Damage, then rated 87, received just a pound from Shumookh, who the following month was up to 102. Collateral Damage had no hope on those terms but still finished well clear of the rest of the field, which included Electric Warrior, with whom he is now 11lbs better-off even taking account of Electric Warrior's claim. Collateral Damage is now down on 81, his lowest mark since winning a Class 3 handicap at York nearly two years ago.

David Allan, who rode Collateral Damage here against Shumookh, used the right tactics that day and a similar run would give the partnership an excellent chance. From a good inside draw, Allan needs to quickly get his mount tucked in just behind the three front-runners. For both previous wins, the horse has been sent to the front 2f out, which would be just as they turn for home, so Allen will want to have him plenty close enough before that stage. Collateral Damage spent most of last season contesting much better races than this off higher marks, hence his barren spell, but he comes here fit from hurdling, on a very good mark and with conditions to suit.

Nevada Desert is another who likes cut in the ground and he has run well over c/d twice before. He should be up there from the start and it would be no surprise to see him run a big race on his seasonal debut. Wigwam Willie also enjoys soft ground, perhaps even softer than this. He should go well first time out, though he does have to prove he acts on the track and he hasn't yet won above Class 4.

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

COLLATERAL DAMAGE WON 8/1 to 9/2

Comment: Any slight worries regarding the jockey change were completely dispelled as Duran Fentiman rode Collateral Damage perfectly to plan. He was a little further back than ideal in the early stages but he got a perfect split on the inside, which enabled him to hit the front rounding the home bend. That was the key to his success and he stayed on well up the hill as expected. He had been heavily backed all day long, from the early 8/1 right in to 9/2 by the off. Of the other shortlisted runners, Wigwam Willie ran on well in fourth, on ground which probably wasn't testing enough for him. Nevada Desert was the subject of good late support from 20/1 in to 12/1 but spoiled his chance, which was dependent upon him racing prominently, by missing the break.

The Daily Bargain

by Steve Jones

Wednesday 5 March 2008

Fontwell 4.00

5. GOLDEN OAK

Price advice: Take 5/1+

Race Details:

Class: 0-115 Handicap (Class 4)

Distance: 3m 2.5f (26.5f)

Track: Figure-of-eight, tight, flat

Ground: Soft (good-soft places)

Analysis:

Golden Oak has struggled to stay this trip when stamina has been at a premium, once on heavy ground and once on a stiff track with an uphill finish. He has a good opportunity today because this tight figure-of-eight circuit and better ground conditions will take much of the emphasis away from stamina. A few of these thorough stayers are likely to be inconvenienced by today's conditions and it wouldn't be a surprise to see them outpaced in the final stages, but Golden Oak has shown the speed to score, albeit luckily, over 19.5f this season. He has also run well over this trip, just finding the final climb at Carlisle too much for him.

This is a better race than River Indus won last time, and he wouldn't have won that but for a last-fence faller. He is now 16lbs higher than for his last win on merit and, although he goes well here and his winning rider is booked, he may not offer much value. If Master Alf's latest piece of form is taken literally, he would be in with a great chance. He finished within ten lengths of a recent Grade 2 winner and only a length behind a subsequent Class 3 winner. He hadn't shown anything whatsoever before that, and the thing that tempers enthusiasm slightly for today was the close proximity of another no-hoper in that same small-field contest. Kiltimoney is consistent in this type of race and should go well again, but he may be one of those who needs a stiffer test of stamina than these conditions are likely to provide.

Noel Fehily, who partnered Golden Oak to victory on the gelding's chasing debut, and was also aboard for a good recent performance at Uttoxeter, is recalled today. He obviously gets on well with the JP McManus runner, who scored when wearing a tongue-tie for the first time. Connections will obviously be hoping today's first-time blinkers will have a similar effect.

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

GOLDEN OAK WON 10/1 to 7/1 (by 13l)

Comment: He certainly needs to brush up on his jumping, but Golden Oak eventually proved too good for a very one-paced group of stayers under these conditions. This isn't a stamina track and Golden Oak had too much speed for the opposition in the closing stages. He was trading at an extremely generous 10/1 this morning and, when he was still at the rear of the field at the half-way stage, prices of up to 50/1 were matched on Betfair. Golden Oak wouldn't be one to follow over this trip with testing track/ground combination, but he can outspeed lower-grade stayers on a tight track. Of the other two on the shortlist, Master Alf finished fourth at 16/1 and Kiltimoney was predictably outpaced but still managed third at 4/1.

The Daily Bargain

by Steve Jones

Tuesday 4 March 2008

Southwell 3.40

2. MY FRIEND FRITZ

Price advice: Take 10/3+

Race Details:

Class: 0-65 Handicap (Class 6)

Distance: 1m 4f (12f)

Track: Left-handed, tight, flat

Ground: Fibresand (standard)

Analysis:

With Peter Hiatt's yard in such great form (4 winners and 3 seconds from 8 finishers over the last two weeks), My Friend Fritz has a good opportunity to go one better than when headed in the final stride over this c/d last time out. That event was run at a strong pace, which suited the winner, Coda Agency, who reopposes today. This contest looks less likely to be run as fast as that, which would inconvenience Coda Agency and also Mid Valley, who came from off a strong pace to land a c/d handicap on his last run.

My Friend Fritz had previously scored over c/d by setting a moderate pace before going for home 3f out and holding on well. He was unable lead last time because one of the outsiders went off at a rapid rate. Nevertheless, he was still able to track the pace before taking it up half a mile out. He looked the winner until Coda Agency managed to cut him down on the line. It is unlikely that the winner would have had the pace to do that had the strong early gallop not helped him.

My Friend Fritz could revert to his normal front-running tactics here, depending on how King's Ransom is ridden over this longer trip. King's Ransom made all over a mile last time, but he has won over this trip in the past, although he runs from an effective mark of 71 today and has never previously troubled the judge from marks in the 70s. If he goes from the front over this trip it isn't likely to be at a fast pace in any case, so My Friend Fritz would be equally happy to track him in the early stages. King's Ransom he has to be respected once again in his current mood, but this could be run to suit My Friend Fritz and he is the value bet under the circumstances.

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

MY FRIEND FRITZ WON 9/2 to 3/1

Comment: As is so often the case in these all-weather handicaps, the result was determined purely by the pace of the race. Coda Agency had narrowly beaten My Friend Fritz in a quicker race over c/d last time, and Mid Valley had also landed a c/d handicap run at a brisk pace. On the other hand, My Friend Fritz had shown the speed to quicken off a slower pace to score over c/d, so the outcome today rested with the pace. It always looked as though today's pace would be moderate because King's Ransom, stepping up in trip, and My Friend Fritz were the likeliest to make it and neither would want a strong early gallop. That is how it turned out, and My Friend Fritz was able to take up the running half a mile out and hold on comfortably. It was noticeable that both Coda Agency and Mid Valley were hard-ridden as soon as the tempo picked up, which was a sign that the early pace hadn't been fast enough for them. Had there been a trailblazer or two in the field, Coda Agency and Mid Valley would have been strongly fancied, but the make-up of today's race played very much to the strengths of My Friend Fritz.

The Daily Bargain

by Steve Jones

Thursday 21 February 2008

Wolverhampton 9.20

4. KING'S RANSOM

Price advice: Take 10/3+

Race Details:

Class: 0-65 Handicap (Class 6)

Distance: 1m 1.47f (9.47f)

Track: Left-handed, tight, flat

Ground: Polytrack (standard)

Analysis:

The results of most low-grade all-weather handicaps are influenced as much by the way the races are run as by the ability of the horses involved, and that is likely to be the case here. We supported Buscador in a similar c/d handicap a week ago, on the basis that he only ever wins when he gets an uncontested lead and he looked like getting one that day. As it happened, he was taken on up front and, as a result, could only finish fourth. His presence helps provide the value for today's bet because, even though he is drawn in stall 2, he is unlikely to be given much peace up front with the likes of Meditation and Gifted Heir in the line-up.

The two for the shortlist are Blue Eyed Eloise and King's Ransom. Blue Eyed Eloise won a c/d maiden last time out and a repetition of that performance should see her on the premises here. However, it was a poor contest that she won, and the runner-up is exposed as being mediocre at best, so Blue Eyed Eloise may not be all that well-treated on her handicap debut. King's Ransom, who is down in class and has far more experience of all-weather handicaps, despite being a year younger than his rival, looks a better alternative at the likely prices.

Steve Gollings won the bidding for King's Ransom after the gelding had landed a selling handicap last August. So far, Gollings has failed to get a win from his investment, but he has got pretty close recently and this drop in class could do the trick. The last time King's Ransom was dropped into this grade he was unlucky to come up against Confidentiality, who was in the middle of compiling a six-timer and is now rated 83. But for Confidentiality, King's Ransom would have won that Class 6 handicap (which was run on this track) very comfortably because he finished clear of the other eight runners, who included some solid all-weather handicappers. This is the first time he has been back to this venue since, and it is very unlikely that any of today's rivals are in the same league as Confidentiality.

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

KING'S RANSOM WON 10/3 to 2/1

Comment: King's Ransom gave cause for concern when playing up on his way to the start, but he didn't give any during the race and always looked like holding on once he hit the front 2f out. As expected, Buscador wasn't given the easy time he needs up front, and he only ever wins when he gets an uncontested lead. Blue Eyed Eloise was too far back when starting her run, which was as well because she finished fastest of all down the straight. Nevertheless, King's Ransom was always in the right place and it was a fairly comfortable success in the end.

The Daily Bargain

by Steve Jones

Tuesday 12 February 2008

Southwell 3.50

1. EVENS AND ODDS

Price advice: Take 4/1+

Race Details:

Class: 0-95 Handicap (Class 3)

Distance: 6f

Track: Left-handed, tight, flat

Ground: Fibresand (standard)

Analysis:

Dropping Evens And Odds back in trip to 6f looks a good move. He pulled hard over 7f here last time, when finishing second to one of today's main rivals, Kabeer. Kabeer is likely to be well-supported, having hit a good run of form of late, but he is unlikely to offer any value here. All his wins have come over longer trips than this, and the only reason he managed to finish second over this c/d last week was because the winner, Ingleby Arch, set such a fast pace.

With no regular front-runner in the field, Neil Callan may well decide to make the running on Evens And Odds from stall one. If he does, he will want to set a solid pace but it will be surprising if he goes as fast as Ingleby Arch did last week. A slower tempo would leave Kabeer in danger of becoming outpaced, but Callan wouldn't want to go so slow as to leave the possibility of a sprint finish. There is no better rider around here than Callan, who is a superb judge of pace under circumstances like this. He will be raring to go on his first day back from holiday too.

The only c/d winner in the field, Crimson King, looks the main danger, even though he is up in class and runs from his highest mark yet. However, the way this track has been riding of late wouldn't really suit the hold-up tactics he sometimes employs. The three sprint handicaps at the last meeting were all won by the horse leading around the home bend, and two of the three were won by a horse making all. That should offer some encouragement to trainer Kevin Ryan with regard to his choice of tactics with Evens And Odds, who should provide some decent value in the lowest-graded handicap he has yet contested. His sire, Johannesburg, won five from six over this trip and Evens And Odds shouldn't be as keen in the blinkers this time.

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

EVENS AND ODDS WON 4/1 (by 5l)

Comment: Evens And Odds made all for an easy success. On a track which favours prominent runners, he quickly took the lead from his inside draw and never looked like being headed. As suggested, Kabeer, who is better over further, struggled behind a pace which was slower than when he managed to finish second behind Ingleby Arch last time.

The Daily Bargain

by Steve Jones

Thursday 31 January 2008

Wincanton 4.10

3. FUNDAMENTALIST

Price advice: Take 11/4+

Race Details:

Class: 0-145 Handicap Chase (Class 2)

Distance: 2m 5f (21f)

Track: Right-handed, tight, flat

Ground: Good-soft (good places)

Analysis:

There are three or four possible front-runners but Cossack Dancer is by far the most likely, and he usually takes his field along at a decent pace. He is a good and quick jumper who will soon have any rivals who aren't jumping up to scratch in trouble on this tight track. He is very consistent in and around this grade, but his nine second places compared to his three successes shows that he often finds one too strong at the business end. That happened when he met Fundamentalist at Ascot last month and it could happen against the same opponent today.

Fundamentalist looks a rejuvenated character this season and this is another good opportunity for him. Paddy Brennan will know exactly when to challenge Cossack Dancer and, although this tighter track will go in the front-runner's favour, the softer ground won't and Fundamentalist could prove too strong once again.

Kelrev looks much-improved for his move to Alan King's yard and he should travel well for much of the way under conditions that suit. However, he has never been the strongest of finishers, and that is demonstrated by the fact that all his wins have come when he has been able to take up the running two or three fences out, or even earlier. He won't find that easy with Cossack Dancer at the head of affairs.

Supreme Prince has an ideal set of conditions. A flat track, give in the ground and this sort of trip are just what he needs, so if he were to bounce back to form after a dismal run, he would be a big threat to any of these.

Nevertheless, now that Fundamentalist has rediscovered his form he should be hard to beat. He had no hope of giving 6lbs to Jack The Giant at Leicester last time, but it was still a performance that would easily be good enough to take this veterans' handicap. He has two Grade 1 Cheltenham Festival entries to his name, so his trainer obviously believes there is more to come yet.

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

FUNDAMENTALIST WON 11/4 (by 6l)

Comment: Cossack Dancer was a significant withdrawal and I was wondering whether the solid pace he would have been sure to provide would still be forthcoming. As it was, See You Sometime, who stays much further, did a good front-running job for the first two thirds of the race. Not wanting the pace to lull, Paddy Brennan did exactly the right thing in taking it up four from home. From there, the only brief danger was a rejuvenated Jericho III, but Fundamentalist is a transformed character these days and was in no mood to give his rival a chance. In the end, he had an easy six lengths to spare and it all looked very straightforward indeed for a supposed 11/4 chance.

The Daily Bargain

by Steve Jones

Friday 4 January 2008

Lingfield 2.50

7. THE VERY MAN

Price advice: Take 13/2+

Race Details:

Class: 0-120 Handicap Hurdle (Class 3)

Distance: 2m 7f (23f)

Track: Left-handed, tight, undulating

Ground: Soft (heavy places)

Analysis:

The value for the this bet comes from taking on the two likely market leaders, Ballyfitz and Nightfly. They are both classy individuals but a war of attrition, as this is likely to be, may not go in their favour. Ballyfitz is reportedly a bit fragile so a return to the track after just eight days, in order to run under a penalty, may not be ideal. Nightfly returns to action after an absence of fourteen months. He is up significantly in trip and hasn't yet faced ground this testing.

This event was run on heavy ground last year, when the field returned well strung out, as is likely to happen again. The race was won by Alan King's Alfasonic and the trainer's representative this time, Stolen Moments, is also the type that could go well. So is Jonjo O'Neill's runner, The Very Man, and those two look likely to provide some value.

If we dig deep, we can find a line of form to connect them: Saunders Road, one of Philip Hobbs' string, beat Stolen Moments by 2.5 lengths in a Sandown handicap last November. Meanwhile, The Very Man was involved in a close finish with Russian Trigger at Market Rasen a couple of weeks later. There was then nothing between Russian Trigger and Tighten Your Belt at Wincanton on Boxing Day, putting The Very Man roughly on a par with them. A couple of weeks earlier, Tighten Your Belt had finished 4.5 lengths behind Saunders Road in a better Sandown handicap than the one which had involved Stolen Moments. That was Tighten Your Belt's first run since April 2006 too, so there are solid grounds for rating him above Saunders Road, particularly after the way he came on for the run, which gives The Very Man the beating of Stolen Moments on the formbook.

Alan King's runner wears blinkers for the first time, which may or may not improve him, but The Very Man looks the more likely of the two to be suited by a severe test of stamina on this sort of ground, and he is already proven at this level.

There has been a lot of concern regarding the form of O'Neill's yard over the last few weeks, but things look like changing for the better very shortly. The stable finally sent out a winner last Friday and then another on Tuesday, together with four more running into places this week. There should now be a few more winners waiting in the wings and JP McManus, who owns The Very Man, is sure to be heavily involved.

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

THE VERY MAN WON 7/1

Comment: The shortlisted pair, The Very Man and Stolen Moments finished first and third at 7/1 each, with the complicated line of form between them working out well. This was all about stamina rather than speed, and that is where The Very Man's strength lies. It was interesting to see that he was traded at 20/1+ on the exchanges with over a circuit still to go. That was because McCoy was having to keep him up to his work until stamina became an issue later in the contest.

The Daily Bargain

by Steve Jones

Wednesday 12 December 2007

Kempton 8.50

8. RABBIT FIGHTER

Price advice: Take 8/1+

Race Details:

Class: 0-65 Handicap (Class 6)

Distance: 6f

Track: Right-handed, tight, flat

Ground: Polytrack (standard)

Analysis:

The first thing that takes the eye when browsing through tonight's Kempton card is the fact that Paul Mulrennan, one of the best all-weather riders in the country (7 all-weather winners already this month at a 22% strike rate), travels to Kempton, a track he doesn't often visit, for just the one ride - which is for Derek Shaw, a trainer he virtually never rides for. It looks a puzzling set of circumstances at first, but things become much clearer with the realisation that this race could be set up perfectly for his mount Rabbit Fighter.

This 6f sprint looks certain to be run in a fast time. Pacey front-runners Willhewiz and Ever Cheerful are both drawn on the inside and the prospect of that pair disputing the lead can only mean a very quick race. Willhewiz led a c/d handicap at a rapid pace last month, setting things up nicely for a couple of strong finishers (one of whom was trained by Derek Shaw). Just five days later, Ever Cheerful led another c/d handicap at an ever faster pace, from off which the winner almost broke the track record. Shaw's Desert Light (who also runs here) was back in fifth, so the trainer has watched both those rapid sprints closely. With Willhewiz and Ever Cheerful in the same race for the first time, drawn right next to each other in ideal berths for front-runners, the pace has to be hot.

Rabbit Fighter finished a fairly close fifth in a Group 3 event last August, so the fact that he is now taking on Class 6 opposition is a bit of an eye-opener in itself. He was rated 93 at the end of last year and is now 33lbs lower on just 60. Judging by his recent efforts, his day is very close. He has regularly been very keen over 7f, wanting to go faster than the pace he has been set, and that situation has been accentuated by his recently applied visor. With tonight's likely pace there is no way he should be keen this time, and his ability to stay further means he also has the necessary stamina to see out this 6f very strongly. What looks an ideal scenario awaits Rabbit Fighter tonight and Mulrennan looks just the man to take advantage of the situation.

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy

RABBIT FIGHTER WON 9/2

Comment: We expected this to be fast and it certainly was, producing a new course record. Willhewiz went off very quickly, with Ever Cheerful not far behind, setting things up perfectly for Rabbit Fighter, who had the speed to lay up behind the pace and then the stamina to kick from off it and stay on strongly. It is generally wise to be cautious about horses dropping down to sprinting trips after a lengthy period of performing over further. However, Rabbit Fighter had been running keenly behind slower horses over 7f so this was the logical switch for him. He was almost Group class just over a year ago, so there should be more to come from him after this.

It was a shame that the advised 8/1 was unavailable early (the best morning price being 7/1). Therefore, I have had to record the early price as 9/2, the same as SP, in accordance with my pricing rules which ensure fair reporting of performance.